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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by equitystasher

  1. Looking at Rightmove there are a couple of houses that are asking lower prices but these seem to be the ones that have just come onto the market. Maybe the EA's have started talking the market down to new vendors? A house has come on in the same road as a house I viewed in April. The house is almost identical and in slightly better condition and they are asking £15,000 less than the price achieved by the hhe house viewed in. The vast majority of vendors are sittng and waiting perhaps praying for a interest rate cut.
  2. Is'nt mass defaults on very large loans,the writing down of the value of debt instruments,stock market declines,house prices declining,sentiment changing all deflationary? Money is being taken out of the system at a increasing rate.The Central banks are looking to drop rates to try and protect the banking system.They know money is evaporating at a alarming rate. We are all going into recession which is unavoidable due th the debt burden. The consumer will now wake up to the debt and either start paying back or default. This all has a effect on the emerging economies health as our consumption is what their economy is gear towards.At the moment they are sucking the world dry to feed our consumption but not for much longer. I think we have been living in a inflationary enviroment over the last 10 years.If added house price inflation to the figures as they should then it would be obvious.I agree there will be a peak in commodities.The deflationary enviroment will be kicked off in the US when the credit crucnh bites futher.unemployment rises and the US stop spending.
  3. Stagnation=No growth and inflation What we might have is something we have not seen before. Wages are going to be kept under lock and key but prices of everyday items is going up. But with the huge amount of debt we are carrying and a credit cruch we will see deflation in house prices and large luxury items. Is it possible to have massive devaluation in certain areas of the economy and inflation in other parts at the same time? Rates will be dropped next year to try and save the banks. We have our own subprime crises waiting to happen. Merv knows it.
  4. I can't see there being anything like the amount of strikes that took place in the 1970's. 1 Unions are not what they were. 2 Gordon has encouraged everyone to get in so much debt that people cannot afford to get to the end of the month let alone go on strike. 3 People are generally more selfish and are not willing to stick their necks out for the common good. People will just have to get use to the idea that the lifestyle that they have been enjoying over the last 10 years will evaporate and there is a new age dawning. edited for typo
  5. Driving up the A217 towards Epsom today I had the radio tuned to Mercury and a advert for a development near Crawley came on from Barrett Homes. 25% off purchase price £1000 towards legal costs and deposit paid on selected properties. Maybe if we all hold off buying for long enough they will be paying ud to take them off their hands
  6. One bedroom flats appear to shift if priced £169,000 or below. Anything else seems to stick. Vendors are still are chancing their arm and are seeking over inflated prices. I am just hoping that they don't achieve them. I have seen some come back to market on for the original price. Just hope some more people see the light!
  7. Cobham In Surrey has seen two additional EA's open in the last couple of weeks. In fact Exclusive Surrey have two shops on the same street The amount of EA's now is ridiculous. These new shops were probably planned months ago at the top of the boom. I see it as a good thing as there are now more EA's chasing less business which can only mean that they will be more inclined to talk vendors down to get sales through.
  8. I have been keeping a eye on the amount of transactions in the Brighton area using Home.co.uk property price tables. The latest figures are for Aug 2007 - 198 properties sold.Not many compared with Aug 2006 759 sold http://www.home.co.uk/guides/sold_house_pr...8&year=2007
  9. Put in the price I Sold my flat for in March 2007 £168,500. Crash value back to when I bought it 1999=£63,982 I bought it for £61,000 so pretty accurate calculation for HPI in my case.
  10. Sold my Caterham 7 a couple of weeks ago ready for the recession. Priced it very carefully and sold it in 3 weeks althought it was not easy. Noticed that the amount of 7's for sale have increased more than usual for this time of year. Alot more dealers have started using Pistonheads to advertise cars which may point to a slow down in sales.
  11. Don't suppose you can give us a better idea of the area we are talking about?
  12. Wow really.........must get myself down to one of the estate agents that are currently having a Autumn Sale then The Argo really is a ramping rag. How long till they turn tail?
  13. Here is one of those "Mummy and Daddy" properties. I viewed this back in April. It is basically a sh!t hole. The front room being divided up to form another bedroom. Was on for £250,000......dropped to £239.950...Sold......came back to market..£239,950 for a while, dropped to 237,000 for ages this week dropped to £231,950. Hopefully should be worth £125,000 in about three years time.
  14. I am sure I remember seeing a sign for only 2 remaining for the glass pavillion.
  15. I might be wrong but I tjought that they only have to pay cgt on gains. So if the btl makes a loss then there is no cgt to pay. I was thinking they are looking at this more short term ie they are preventing a stampede by btl till after April. Why sell now and pay 40% on profits rather that 18% in April. Keep them in and hope that the tax break might encourage more muppets in to hold the market up till at least April.Disaster averted call a election before April. looking at how many btl have joined the market in the last few years I belive this policy is aimed at them as they hold a big key to the market. I am just hoping that general sentiment,interest rates and the credit crunch will see this fail. Expect Darling to back track on cgt if the housing market continues down over the next 6 months.
  16. The only reason her has done this is to encourage people to buy fecking property for investment. I really hope it fails otherwise the crash is off.
  17. According to the report even the south east is now showing falls. Great news "Scotland has the highest growth" Come on you Scots......get your finger out and lets see some falls
  18. Rics are becoming very bearish recently. Do you think their members are starting to find work drying up? I am sure they have a vested interest in vendors dropping prices to get transactions moving. There must of been a rise in the amount of surveyors over the last 10 years that are now fighting over dwindling instructions.
  19. Sounds like a short term policy to hold the property market up then till April. They are hoping that the tax incentive will encourage more investors to keep the HPI pig going a while longer.Investors hold the market up and they know it.Long term investors get shafted at the expense of short term bubble chasers. The vast majority of BTL have bought in the last 5 years so will benefit from a hold off till April. 40% tax rather than 18% will encourage alot to hold their nerve and maybe a few more to take a punt on the market or is it to far gone?Only time will tell. This is a gamble they are willing to take? Short term gain,long term pain. I really hope thay end up with egg on their faces and they end up accelerating the dip in April.
  20. As I do not understand the taper relief system,does anyone know what optimum period of time that a BTL will be at a advantage on the old taper system compared with the new flat rate system? I.e someone who has owned a property for 5 or more years is better off selling before Aprill 2008 to take advantage of the taper system of tax, rather than selling the at the new flat rate. I think this is a important point as we can calculate how many investors will ne encouraged to sell before this takes effect.
  21. I know of three people who have one of these interest only mortgages. The reason they cite to me is that they start on one of these mortgages and then on two years time when they come to the end of their fixed and their salary is higher they will then go onto a repayment. I know that many mortgage brokers have pushed this line saying that "everyone is doing it" I am sure that there will be alot of people in trouble who will be coming to then end of their fixed period and finding that they are struggling to pay the higher rates let alone try and start to repay the mortgage. I believe that in 2 years time the interest only mortgage will be a thing of the past. I am sure that the banks will cease accepting interest only payments on a house that is worth less than the loan secured against it. Interest only is sub prime and when house prices fall there will many questions being asked why these mortgages were ever allowed.
  22. One that wants to keep his job in the current climate. The game has now changed to a buyers market. The only way they will survive is to attract the few buyers out there to them."Look out houses are better value for money than other EA's" Sales volume or die. If they can talk the vendors down and make a sale then it is they who will survive. How long till the others catch on
  23. I do count myself very lucky at the moment.I was going to buy a house in Brighton but saw the writing on the wall in time. I agree that flats will take a hammering. Around Reigate like many parts of the country there has been a building frenzy and there are plenty of flats and small houses that have been built on brownfield sites. There are alot coming online very soon. As far as discounts on houses I would expect to see bigger discounts if you are prepared to wait 2-3 years. I have seen 300% appreciation which is very bubbly.
  24. How did you come across this information?If you can say. I sold my flat in Reigate which was agreed in March and completed in June. I have been watching the market closely. It seems that flats up until recently have been selling slowly and at the same level or in some cases slightly less than i sold for. Currently there seems to be a stand off. People have put properties on for inflated prices with a unwilliness to drop there price. The next couple of months should be interesting.
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