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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by equitystasher

  1. Hi Mugwamp, Alot of us on here are in the same boat. I have half of my stash in [email protected] index linked certificates which earn RPI+ a % ont top taxfree. They are I think the best investment for some one like us aslong as you are not looking to buy a house within a year. Inflation they reckon is going negative next year.They reckon hmmmm? But if it does expect interest rates at zero. Your certficates will not be less than there anniversary value so there is a safety stop if we get vicious deflation and any case you can always cash them in so you will not lose money. They are also a good hedge if inflation takes off and they are backed by the treasury so in the uncertain world we are in now they are a pretty safe. The only problem is you can only buy £15,000 of each issue. Hope this helps
  2. I have seen a drop of the number of houses on the Market in my search. Found the same result last year. This was followed by a glut coming on after Christmas as must of people decided to remarket or move. It will be interesting to see if we get a big surge in supply in early 2009.Overall supply has nearly tripled since early 2007. On another note I decided to do a search at the higher end of the market. It seems that those marketing their house in th £300,000 bracket and above are not dropping their prices. I find it increadible that I could of bought one of these houses in 2001 for a third of the price.
  3. Because if he gave it to hard working people in the current climate they would pay down there debt or save it. If he gives it to layabouts they are far more likely to go out and spend it into the economy. Shares in blue WKD and Benson and Hedges could be the next bubble.
  4. I am not so sure. It would be best for the country if he was carry through the right policies to rebalance the economy which would cause a sharp fall but this would mean making unpopular policy. I think that Brown would sell his mother if it meant winning the next election. The rating bounce after the bail out of the banks will just spur the maniac on to more damaging policies to court voters which are on the whole indebted,losing their job or seeing their asset values crash.
  5. I think LTV ratios will have more bearing on how fast and far house prices will fall than interest rates. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7729291.stm The the muppets have scored a own goal by imposing their will on retail banks interest rate policy.Some of the current indebted homeowners will have lower repayments and Brown and co have their headlines of being tough on th banks, but because of their action they will see the value of houses fall faster and lower as a result of their meddling. The part nationalised banks having been forced by the government to pass on lower interest rates are now making much lower margins on their existing customers.The banks need wider margins and lower risk to account for losses from the current recession as well as recapalise and pay their dues to the FSCS scheme. As lower interest rates are being forced onto the lenders they are taking the only other option left open to them which some have predicted on here.They need to reduce the risk to match the smaller margins imposed by reducing LTV and I am sure we will see in due course lending multiples will shrink even further. Other banks will follow suit to avoid the business. As a nation of debtors house prices will have to fall much further than expected so that prices will match the much higher deposit levels demanded and wages earnt. If the government continues to brow beat lenders to offering artifically low rates it will force lenders further down this path crashing the market harder and futher then letting the lenders charge properly for risk at higher LTV. It will take a considerable amount of time for there to be suffcient numbers who have a deposit to enter the market to stablise prices. We will see transaction levels worsen and stay low for many years to come and I thin we will see lower prices than alot of us thought possible. If you looking to buy then wait and be patient. Only when you see LTVS returning back to normal should you consider buying again.
  6. I agree with what you say but my main point is this. These are not fixed rates so the banks can do what they want with them over time. Saying they will be passing the rates on in full helps Brown and Co short term and is a PR exercise. We all know Banks have to rebuild their margins and price in risk which is increasing with recession. The banks are under no obligation to maintain the rates as promised and believe we will see them creeping up. If they haven't been able to to tie rates in the US how will Brown be ble to do it here?
  7. Has anyone else noticed that alot of the rate cuts are being implemented on December the 1st. 3 weeks is along time and I cannot help but wonder if this promised drop will get eroded by "market forces" At this meeting at Downing Street I can imagine that that the bankers have agreed to give the politicians their headlines today and we could see further sockes that could prevent the total reduction being eventually passed through.
  8. The inflation tax is the one that I would like to make up my mind on. There is alot of talk at the moment about the risk of deflation and everyone seems to think inflation will fall due to commodites falling back but with the two muppets at the top borrowing like mad will this drop back in commodities negated by a collapse in the currency. Also in previous recessions wasn't inflation running high? Maybe we will have to get used to inflation running at current levels or moving higher?
  9. Could someone clarify what this huge deficit will mean to the working man/woman? Does this mean we will soon see a collapse of the pound and inflation taken off rather than the deflation that media like banding around at the moment. Or does it signal more deflation as taxes rise and services need to be cut?
  10. I was pondering the same question myself. I currently have £30,000 in index linked bind which have been in a year. These have performed well. I am now wondering whether to take another £30,000 out in the latest issue. It is true that we are looking at deflation from the signs given by the drop in oil and etc .But then again with the government borrowing all that money to inject into the banks I have the feeling that we are not going to get the drop back in inflation that the media are predicting. I expect it may drop a little but not drop to the extent they are predicting and in the longer term I believ we could see it rising as the pound loses value. I am buying more when my Nationwide bond matures.
  11. I kind of agree with your stance. Calling in loans though will only cause the situation to get worst for saversas borrowers default pulling the lender down with them.We are seeing credit tightening and I am sure it will get worse so the over borrowed willl be punished.However they should not be allowed to walk away from their debt as easily as they currently can. What the goverment should be doing is taking futher steps to reassure savers that their savings will be protected .Any cost incurred should be sought from the banks in the future. The best way out of this mess is to insure deposits, captilise banks with the tax payer taking stakes in the banks and kicking the greedy bankers out on their ears.
  12. I have £31,000 in ICESAVE. £30,0000 of which is in a fixed rate bond which was due to mature Feb 2009. I was seeking to take all my money out two weeks ago but with £30,000 locked in I decided to leave the total amount in there. I am hoping that Landisbanki will be broken up. The Icelanders would like to reduce its liabilities and perhaps someone will absorb the saving business but I fear that myself and the other 300,000 will have to wait and hope for our money to be returned through the compensation schemes. So far to my knowledge no savers have lost a penny through this crises but I think it is in everyones interest to see that all savers get their money fact in a timely fashion. If normal people are seen to lose their savings or have difficulty in getting them back then expect banks runs to occur across other banks as rumour spread.
  13. And maybe we should of listened to the many Gold Bugs? If there is total systemic failure do we put you in the category of stupid and greedy aswell?
  14. He cannot pump enough money in to reinflate. He is pumping money in to let the bubble deflate slower and stop total systemic failure. Lets hope the tax payer get the appropriate equity in these banks :angry:
  15. £35,000 with Icesave, in a one year bond which expires 01/02/09
  16. £40,000 Jeep with full service history,all extras 2 years old and they can't shift it for £5000
  17. A friend of mine works for a main BMW dealer. Apparently the bottom has fallen out of the second had market especially high end cars. Big 4x4 are unsalable and he is saying that some land rover dealers are losing £100,000 a month off the value of their stock. If you have cash to pay for a second had car then you can really pull their pant down on the price.
  18. I will echo this I have been watching the market in Brighton and for the last 6 months prices have been falling and inventory has been climbing for 12 months. Check out the Brighton thread in the regional house prices forum. Don't panic...........wait
  19. Do not worry. Brighton is one of the most overinflated,speculated areas in the country and will suffer more than most. Most people on HPC recorgnise this. Unfortunatley it will take some time for prices to fall back to where they should be so do not be tempted to jump in to soon. Brighton has a long tradition of being a boom/bust town and has been caught up in th hype. There will be a few businesses going bust and a few BTLs going bump. I am seeing much larger drops in house prices in Brighton than I am seeing in Surrey so just sit back and chiiillllll
  20. I opened a Nothern Rock Isa last month transfering in funds and adding to them. Service was excellent and the transaction was easy.
  21. Today I picked up a copy of Latest Homes 9-15 September to compare with a copy of Latest Homes 11-17 September 2007. Thought you may all be interested in my findings. In general the agents have half to 3/4 of the amount of advertising space for sales.With quite a few not advertising at all. Letting pages are up on last year 57% increase in advertising space with asking rental prices the same or slightly lower. Sales prices are down. There are some large price drops on houses that have been stuck since this time last year. £300,000 houses advertised this time last year now being advertised for £225,000 generally a £30,000 to £50,000 drop in asking price in this price range. 24 branches of EA officers have gone which accounts for 18% of EA's in the area covered by latest homes. Oh and with the boiler packing up last month and the roof leaking this month its making my rent seem even better value for money
  22. Ok, I have been thinking about how many EA's are closing down,how low the transactions levels are and how many vendors are unwilling to drop the price. EA's are holding a large amount of unsold stock which is costing them money to keep on their books. With more and more competitors going to the wall this means that more vendors will come to them to request a market valuation to go onto their books. Now bearing in mind that the EA has less competitors and a large amount of stock to sell which is losing them money I would imagine that more EA's will now feel they can cherry pick the ones that are prepared to enter the market at lower prices and get rid the ones who are hanging onto false hope of getting their inflated price. This would give vendors with denial a shove when they get turned away from every EA telling them that they are asking to much. edit typo in topic description
  23. Brighton is boom and bust town.Has been for many many years.There has been a huge boom.Plenty of borrowed money flowing into the city.Speculation has distorted the market. There has been crazy house price inflation especially in the last 3 years.House prices are currently 8.9 times local wages I have been watching the BN2 market closely since Febuary last year.Sales slowed over the summer with the amount of houses on the market slowly climbing.Since the New Year the amount of houses in my search has doubled as falling prices hit the headlines. My search only includes 3 bedroom family houses and the amount of choice is climbing weekly as people reduce their prices and fall into my price range and new house are put on the market. There are currently alot of people asking far to much but in time this will change. Prices will fall and eventually transactions will climb back to normal but we are a long way off this. EA's and vendors in the Brighton area are getting squeezed no doubt about it.Some of the EA's who were boasting how unique the housing market is in Brighton have gone to the wall and we are just 12 months into this. The vast majority of vendors are going to chase the market down to their detriment.They are unwilling to accept that the huge paper gains they have experienced very recently have now turned to a loss People find this very hard to understand that the world has changed because the speed at which it has happened and it takes along time for reality to bite and sink in. That is human nature and is down to how long it can take to sell a house and for losses to show. Be patient. There are some drops.Some vendors have started dropping their price with their neighbours standing firm.Who will end up better off in the end? You are a buyer.You are saving money by NOT buying.Don't buy for 18 months at least. You will have more choice and prices will be lower. WAIT. edited typo
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