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equitystasher

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Everything posted by equitystasher

  1. On the rental front. I spoke to my letting agent who was carrying out our inspection on a 2 bedroom that was up for rent for ages near us. The rental agent said that the vendor would not take their advice on the rent. Eventually they had to take a large drop to get it rented. I would say that rents have come down in since we started renting last year and this is only looking at like for like asking prices. You have to drive a hard bargin and not show your hand otherwise people will take advantage. Thanks yellercat for the post. As we know indices are very laggy and tell us the state of the market a couple of months previously. The Land Registry being the most accurate but most laggy. What I would take from this is declines have slowed but not through a increase in sales but through a combination of a lack of houses for sale as I have seen a massive drop in houses advertised,suckers with a big deposit or money from Mum and Dad thinking they are picking up a bargin jumping in. They will not be feeling that in a years time. Because of the average deposit required is much higher than a year ago, it won't be much longer until these remaining funds available to the misinformed are sucked into the black hole of the property market. By the end of the summer all those that have inclination and the ability to to buy would of bought. We will find that the leading indices will start showing declines which will increase into early next year. Please be patient. Being a bit of a anorak I have a Latest home from Sept 07,Sept 08 so Sept 09 shall be a interesting comparison.
  2. But rates must also reflect risk not just inflation expectations. Its the same for individuals or nations. We are looking pretty risky compared to other nations and maybe the Bank of England has stopped printing because the threat of a downgrade. If we have a bond crises you are presuming that just raising interest rates will cure the problem. What if it doesn't and out debt is shunned? There are alot of other coun tires offering government debt and only limited buyers. The £ will fall and interest rates will remain high but have little effect.High unemployment,taxes and inflation?
  3. So looking at a time span with the size of the problem we could see a couple of years of inflation just around the corner followed by long deflation. I would say that despite what people are seeing in the current inflation figures and all the talk of deflation they should expect higher inflation even with high unemployment because higher taxes,interest rates and import costs will feed against a back drop of sustained or increasing oil prices.
  4. We have seen a reduction in the £ of about 30% compared with other currencies.Many things I like I am now seeing a increase in price on as the old stock has run out and new stock is ordered at higher import price. WE have also seen a reduction in VAT and interest rates along with the oil price which has caused temporary deflation but as these factors will drop out soon and we will see the figures reverse. With gilts getting harder to sell will this cause a further devaluation in the £ causing inflation?
  5. Looking at the whole sorry state of affairs and the total mishandling of our economy I can see yields rising from here and a possible failed gilt auction. They have pushed their luck to far. We have a mountain of debt to flog to less buyers and are competing in a ever more crowded market. We are seeing the rate of public spending increasing at a scary rate and investors are getting nervous and have been off loading gilts. What I would like to know is how this will effect the £ in your pocket. Rates will have to rise as I understand it which will feed through to borrowing costs which must be deflationary. But then I assume the £ will drop in value which will inflationary. So is the outlook high inflation with high interest rates?
  6. So the postage to send my £20 voucher back signed for is in excess of what I am to be payed out. Fracking theifs
  7. VAT cut,large interest rates falls,and the oil price falls are largely responsible for the inflation figures showing negative. All of these will be working their way out over the nex few months. The only way is up baby especially if sterling comes under pressure from failed gilt auctions.
  8. I think it is simpler than that. Bankers by nature only think about the short term. The next bonus,me me me, feck everything else. This whole crises has been caused by the regulators letting them get away with it. The government are too spineless to regulate them properly even though the whole system almost fell over. Fools Some people in the banking sector should be going to jail not looking forward to another bumper bonus but who's fault is that? The Government/Regulators
  9. The bankers are making a rod for their own back. Instead of being smart and keeping bonuses low for a couple of years or so they have gone straight back to the trough like the greedy feckers they are. There is alot of pain yet to be inflicted on the country after the next election when deep cuts and higher taxes are made to pay for Brown's term and the bailouts. We will also be experiencing soaring unemployment. The public will point the finger at the greedy bankers and I can see people taking matters into their own hands.
  10. I must admit I cannot understand what is happening in Brighton at the moment. I have been keeping a eye on prices for the last two years in Surrey and Brighton. Surrey is still falling whereas Brighton is seeing alot of kite flyers at higher than 2007 prices! What is going on down here? Has the sea air gone to peoples heads! I am just hoping that it will fall hard when winter sets in.
  11. Currency devaluation and Goverment spending will have a effect on general inflation. The amount of liquidity being pumped into the world economy by the central banks is huge. Will it cause inflation? I think it will. When? I wish I knew. Less work is being done.Less widgets are being manufactured yet the solution seems to be expand the amount of money in the economy. Because we havent seen inflation yet people think we have avoided it. The fact is it lying in wait. Inflation will come
  12. Watching the news this evening and listening to the radio on the way into work I cannot help but see how the media are waking up to the financial mess we are in. Badger has by coming clean on the debt mountain and gambling on fantasy land ideas that the economy is going to recover next year and then boom like it 1997 has caused at long last a shake up in the media from its sleep into the reality of what the country faces. I expect to see the city baulk at todays mess and the fall out will come over the following days and weeks. All not good for those green shoots of activity in the housing market
  13. ""you pay 12% we pay the remaining 88%" You dont have a clue do you? My point is that previous governments have taken the pension contributions and SPENT THEM. I.e Someone pays their pension contributions and this money is not invested or ring fenced but spent on building hospitals,building roads ,buying the latest warship etc etc! It is a pay as you go scheme and is not a funded scheme.In return you buy a promise Very good at the beginning for the government as they take all the contributions and just spend the money and leave the liabilities for the future tax payer to pick up down the road which get more and more expensive as the schemes matures. Now the schemes are maturing you have large shortfalls especially as in alot of cases you have less and less people paying in thus they are now very expensive.
  14. So as someone who is working a 42 hours week in a skilled and dangerous profession giving a essential life saving service to the community,who contributes nearly 12% of salary towards a pension is screwing you? Or could it be that this and previous governments have willingly taken all the pension contributions and never ring fenced it or invested and just spent it. Now that these schemes are maturing there are growing deficits having to be paid for by the tax payer. Please open your mind. "Gold plated public pensions" are you a Dail Mail reader my chance? edited typo
  15. I agree. LTV's are they key. I read somewhere that even small changes in LTV's affect houseprices much more than interest rates and considering we have gone from a situation of widley available 100% and LIAR LOANS been pushed down ant willing punter to 25% LTV's and tighter criteria being the norm then house prices still have along way to fall to reflect this. What concerns me is that the government will meddle and reverse this trend. I agree that there will be a few cash buyers jumping back in. You can see from this forum that people with cash get duped back in especially with low interest rates, there are a few inviduals buying which is the slowing some falls but this will not last long and we will see falls acclerate as unemployment climbs.
  16. Government solution is to concrete rural communties so everyone can have a second home and a prime residence. :angry: Its just not going to happen and they know it. Boom times and prices go throught the roof and the local community dies as they are squeezed out. Second homes should be taxed heavily as it is a luxury not a right.Over the boom years it has been a tax frree investment for the rich at the expense of the rest of us on average incomes. A house price crash and hard recession will be a good thing to hopefully return some of these homes back to local families to live in.
  17. So with coins and would it be possible to negotiate a discount with buying a large amount? Coininvest and ats are the places to go for these?
  18. But wouldnt there always be a gold trader willing to buy the bar if it has a receipt and stamped? A company such as Ats will always trade gold bars aswell as coins. So what does everyone think if you are investing £30,000. Should you be buying bars or coins?
  19. We were hearing not so long ago about buyers threating to pull out at the last minute and demanding more money off (guzundering) and how ea's wanted to outlaw the pratice.How dirty and low for a buyer to use such methods. Yet it is acceptable for guzumping, sealed bids ets etc. I do not agree with either but with the current state of play I would be tempted as buyers in the past have been treated with such contempt. I would count yourself lucky. You will pick something up for less money if you are prepared to wait. Wonder what that agent would say if you guzundered on one of their deals in future?
  20. THose 2 sales are probably are the first for a while and yes more poepl probaly looking but not buying. Much futher to fall. This has along way to go yet and I expect that there will be some rises in activity but overall big falls. These thing never go in a straight line.
  21. Currently I have got 40% in [email protected] index linked certificates. 30% in fixed accounts earning 6.5% which will end in August/ Sept 30% in a tesco internet saving account earning 3.5% including 1.5% bonus which I am sure will drop again soon. I am currently debating if I should buy Gold or not. The BofE have signalled that they are prepared to print as much as needed to fix the problem. The question is. Gold? Is it in a bubble of it own or not and if it is maybe its the begining of a big upward trend. I am considering using gold bullion vault and maybe converting 30% of my fund to gold. I am nervous about investing in something that is unfamiliar which I could see my intial investment fall over night and so iI feel is more of a speculative move. I am also considering buying more [email protected] index linked bonds. I know people feel that rpi is rigged but I know broadly it is a better bet in a inflationary environment than having money in the bank.
  22. My view on the market. Prices have come down on the 3 bedroom houses at lower end of the market. Not all but most have. I am looking sub £300,000. I look once a week with property bee which alway picks up another price drop here and there. Everyone should use this tool as it shows you where the market is going and it aint up which keeps your spirits up! There are some hefty price drops on some houses but there are some houses that I thought would sell after such a large drop but they still have not gone. Overall not a great deal seems to be selling. The amount of houses in my search criteria has dropped. 22 pages at peak end of last yeat down to 16. Probably because of some transactions as people accept lower prices mostly becausemany withdrawn from the market to see if things improve. I am sure that we have a very small bounce at the moment but that is only natural. People still have to move and will buy I think the EA's are shouting about any business they get from the roof tops at the moment but I would not pay any attention to their ********. Mortgage approvals are the real indicator and they are still very very low.Keep a eye in these. The next 12 months we will see many more vendors reducing prices. Please be patient. Vendors out their are hanging on to their price for grim death but it will just mean that when they do drop their price it will be a larger one. Sit tight and keep saving. How much mortgage interest you are saving over 25 years with interest Keep the faith Brothers and sisters
  23. I think the smart move is to hold your nerve and not buy.The current situation is a bear trap. People are panicking and jumping into the housing market which is the wrong thing to do.It is easy to when reading the posts on this forum to get spooked.Please take a step back and take a balanced look and try and reason through what has happened and what we are faced with. Many on here were happy to sit tight when we had massive house price inflation which was eroding the value of their savings yet are getting spooked at the prospect of general inflation with current massive house price deflation and the banks being hamstrung. General price inflation will take off there is no doubt in my mind about that But any asset that requires the majority of people to take a loan out to secure will fall.The appetite for debt has changed. Look at the drop in car sales and houses. Do you think the appetite for more debt will ignite once general inflation takes off and people are still getting laid off and wage drops being banded around or do you think we will see people wages increasing? People are running scared and the fear is growing each day. You are one of the very few that have a sizable lump of money which you naturally want to protect but I think you are being conned into giving that value up if you put it in a house at this stage. Look what happened when we had inflation this time last year. People were being getting squeezed but did we see the corresponding rise in wages in a economy that was in a a better state than now? We will have stagflation again but this will not ignite wage inflation to erode debt like the 70's.
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