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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by equitystasher

  1. You are showing your ignorance and a view of what Firefighters did in the 50's not in this century. The Fire and Rescue and the Service has seen continues cut backs most of which has been implemeted by the previous government. The amount of frontline Firefighters and Appliances have been cut already unlike other government departments. They are trained and equipped to respond in addition to fire- Road Traffic Accidents Chemical Incidents Radiation Incidents Terrorist Attack Train Crashes Plane Crashes Building Collapse People trapped In Machinery Flooding Animal Rescue Inland Water Rescue Mud and Ice Rescue. Plus alot more I can't even think of. They spend their days doing inspections,training,servicing and cleaning equipment and giving fire safety advice. They are a insurance policy and you want third party cover only? You better hope you never need to claim
  2. Very Informative Free Trader. Could you start a thread with that graph on and update the information as it becomes available please. I for one would appreciate it. I think its more useful than pouring over one months release from the Nationwide or Halifax and getting our knickers in a twist!. Why are you guys getting yourselves uptight about one months figures? They are just about positive and we know there has been a large amount of supply come to market. . You will get some increases in a bear market. Expect them to spin the positives. It happened in the 90's crash and it will happen in this one. You know it is time to buy when the VI's capitulate. I would like to see fast declines like in 2008/9 like the rest of you but that is just not going to happen as everything possible has been done to put the brakes on. This won't stop the declines but slow the decline. Us bear also have to be realistic. People in general are very short term when it comes to buying a house and only worry about their current situation. People are stupid. After the spending review in October which will affect both public and private sector jobs and with the introduction of VAT rises in 2011 you will find people less willing or able to spend more on a house. Trend is down for now
  3. QE was a tool to try and recapatalise our insolvent banking system and bail out the indebted through holding down rates. We have the most highly leveraged banking system and the highest personal debt in the world due to a debt bubble which fed into everything with housing being the main bubble. The QE smoke screen message was it was to be used as a tool to get lending moving but this was a cover story as we know from the results of where we are now. The banks are still insolvent and very few solvent customers want their loans. As we have become more in debt, interest levels have become more critical and any small moves up would cause mass defaults because of the high levels of debt in the system. They are doing their best to keep rates artifically low to bail out the banks and indviduals whether we like it or not as the alternative is systemic collapse. The one shot suger rush of the government stimulas is now running out with the effect of "growth" slowing and assets prices starting to fall again as we come back to reality. Now they will be looking for a excuse to push the QE2 button again.Falling house prices, slow or falling growth will be the excuse as before along with a excuse to counter Goverment austerity measures. What the BofE would like to engineer is 5-6% inflation with assets like housing stagnant. Ie stagflation to get us out of this mess. Basically they are scared of deflation more than inflation. Their policy statements and actions should leave none of you in doubt of this and a change in government does not change this. They are prepared to throw the savers to the wolves to protect the system. What I think we will see is futher nominal falls in house prices but not the big fall some of you expect. There just isnt enough forced sellers and they are fighting to keep it that way with low rates and QE used as a tool to keep real rates down. As austerity measures come into effect next year it will cause higher unemployment and stagnant wages across public and private sectors. QE2 will be put into action and we will see even higher inflation in everyday items and the continued rubbish being spouted by the BofE of the deflation threat to justify their actions to the markets. House price will be getting cheaper in both in small nominal terms and by inflation but there will not be general deflation and there will be general high inflation. We are all going poorer. I have 85% of my house fund in [email protected] Index Linked Bonds. I have 10% which is currently in a cash ISA which is going tobe converted to self invest ISA and Il buy funds in the far east and il keep 5% cash for emergencies. Buying a house will not protect against the coming inflation.
  4. It has now dawned on the media that all the indicators are pointing to house prices falling again and that big falls could take place. The headlines must be pushing on sentiment and making policy makers review their options. The big question now is how will the Bank of England respond to falling asset prices. QE2 about to be fired up I fear.
  5. You think people who earn under £25000 are the only ones that provide essential services and are value for money? Saying loose essential services is a bit much...... ok you will loose the quality in some of your essential services. There are people that are qualified and experienced who earn above this in essential services if you cut their pay like you advocate they will leave. Simple. You would be prepared to keep a unreformed public sector for this. I don't want a underskilled,inexperienced workforce performing essential tasks potentially life changing tasks.
  6. I have not been selective as you can see if you look back through the thread. I have just replied to every one of your points. The whole point of being selective is to get rid of non essential departments. The over paid and the pen pushers and keep the good bits. A blanket approach is not the way to go as nothing gets reformed and you will lose essential services.
  7. You obviously don't know what most experienced and qualified front liners earn and how important they are. You need to address management structure in the whole public sector and look at what services the public sector provides and how bureacratic it is and make cuts. Yes than means sacking people. Maybe alot and closing some departments completely. But these are jobs we cannot sustain. Why do you advocate subsidising these people from others within the public sector that are productive and useful and do services you really rely on? Thats how the public sector should be run Austerity or not. It just been to easy to expand it and exploit for political purposes. The public service should give you the good service when you call on them in a emergency but they are people like you ( or not like you ) and deserve to be paid and treated fairly.
  8. No did you read my statement? Your reply is irrelevant. I am applying your idea from another point of view and showing how narrow minded it is. A portion of people would be affected in similiar vane to yours but not all tax payers but it would be a unfair idea. Gravy train for some public sector workers, not for ALL. You think ALL people in the public sector are on a cushy number which is a incorrect assumption and on what you are basing you entire approach. I advocate laying of people that are not required in keeping basic services.Not to fill a mismanaged black hole which came about thought previous government simply spending pension contributions in their budgets. Over the years people have to come to expect too much from the state in handouts and services and politicians have used it to bribe the electorate. We cannot afford it at its current size. But you also cannot expect to have it all for nothing. You believe ALL public sector workers owe you something.
  9. Its not fair in the same way as putting taxes up by half on anything earn't over £25000 is not fair. A Goverment can go bankrupt and it has happened many times.
  10. The wrong arguments have been levied. Why arn't people questioning why Private pension schemes are so bad. The reason the whole system is rigged to cream the populus for the few. Look how private schemes work and how they used to work and how thy are used as cash cows for companies the city and those who run them. It very easy to attack the public sector and you are correct about the overhang and liabilities. This is down to the massive expansion of the public sector. This need to be addressed buy getting back to what the public sector should be about which is essential services and a saftey net insted of a way of life and middle class benefits to buy votes.
  11. The average wage is £25,000 for the country not the South East. If we really want to split hairs we should be talking about median salary. It is a irrelevant argument anyway as we all know wages in the Private and Public sector are not and should not be set on the basis of everyone earning the same. You would not inflated someones salary using that figure so why should you rob people using the same argument. The Government is in alot of debt but is not Bankrupt there is a big difference. The Government can still raise credit, receive taxes and change its budget to suit its requirements. The Goverment is still trading as it were. When a employee or subcontrator signs a contract of employment it is not the employee's obligation to account for the employers future mismanagement. If a employer is holding massive debt because of mismanagement but is still trading it is not the responsibility of it employers or subcontractors to compensate the employer. The employer has to change the way it works and reduce workforce and change what it does. The Public sector is to big,There is a sense of entitlement in some quarters with some ridiculous salaries and jobs. The autumn review should hopefully start to address this and get rid of the gravy train. But there also should be approached with fairness and not the blinkered approach you advocate.
  12. para1 well in that case you would end up no public service. What do you think is a living wage especially in the South East? para2 Yes your right they should. At the beginning of employment the employee signed the pensions contract and made the obliged contributions and gave the years service demanded so under the agreed terms of the scheme the employer should honor it. Tuff New employees should be on a different scheme which most are now but they should be honoured. Basically cut back the massive Public Sector which has got to a point of nannying. The public sector should be a safety net and provide essential services. You want something for nothing.
  13. By your definition do you think that ALL public sector employees who earn over £25,000 are not worth what they earn? There are also many different pension schemes within the public sector. Many have been set up as pay as you go schemes which were obviously beneficial to the government of the day that set them up as they were running a huge surplus at the beginning of these schemes. Now that these schemes are maturing some are slipping deeper into deficit. So you advocate that current members should simply not get a pension? There has been massive wastage and creation of non jobs in the public sector but you lot are barking up the wrong tree.
  14. The tidal wave of money that has been printed,borrowed and spent by world governments is feeding into what we know for sure is a broken,unsustainable economic model. The whole world economy is structured to feed the the MEWing habits of the West's over indebted borrowers based on overinflated asset prices and has been for a considerable amount of time. All the World governments have done is to steal from the future to put some props under everything and try to start the same party again. After the mass stimulas from many different countires runs out next year what then? The consumer cannot take on more debt and the bank are unwilling to lend to the overindebted .Governments can only borrow so much and QE just hands money to banks who use it to fill holes in balance sheets and place bets . They will only get away with printing for so long and then they will have to go cold turkey.
  15. Someone I know has just had a house purchase fall through in the New Forest. This mortgage was with a 50% deposit. The banks surveyor valued the house below the agreed price and the bank would not release the mortgage. The response of the buyers. To view the surveyor as getting the value wrong as it is a niche area With the surveyor not budging nor the vendors willing to drop the price the deal fell through.
  16. This is a answer I would like to know aswell as I am considering in investing in more index linked bonds. As last years massive interest rate cuts drop out of the figure would I be correct in expecting RPI to spike especially with the falling £?
  17. Looks like the market is being driven by cash buyers and those with large deposits. Question is how long can this situation last?
  18. Could'nt the drop in net lending simply be that the banks are lending only to those with bigger deposits? It seems to me that this rally is a combination of the cash rich jumping back into a market which has restricted supply because repo's have been stemmed through low interest rates and the banks being lent on. The real question is how long can this situation last? Net lending will continue to fall and approvals should fall as the cash starts to run out.
  19. Does anyone know of anyone providing a Index linked ISA? I know about [email protected] Index Linked certificates. I am loaded up on them but I am wondering if there is anywhere I can put my ISA allowance.
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