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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by equitystasher

  1. I am a bit to lazy to do that I am keeping a eye on my small search and will keep reporting any changes. Still more houses being added daily.Working towrds 11 pages now. There is a trickle coming back on the market that sold ages ago. Suppose people are starting to get cold feet. I also had a look at higher valued houses and I am amazed how much cr*p you get for a big jump in money.
  2. Where do you get the amount of properties for sale on rightmove? It just ssya over 100 properties available when i do my search. Would be nice to keep count. So how long till 879 turns into 1000 do you think
  3. I agree. So why is the Libor dropping? The risk has got greater so shouldnt that put the Libor up? Seems some people in the city have very short memories. I suppose the next "crises" and it will shoot up again? Or maybe is it that they are now starting to identify what is junk and what isn't?
  4. I must admit that walking down the Lewes road I have a tendancy to look in and see what the EA's are upto. I have found some shut early and even on Saturdays they don't seem to be doing much. If I was in the business i would be doing all I can to talk the vendors down to get sales completed but then again I suppose most of them would not know how to do that or actually sell a house. From what you say it sounds like EA' are quite closed circle even if you know them outside work.
  5. I reckon it hasn't fed in yet so I am going for. 0.1% increase.
  6. That is very good news about flats. That is a BIG increase! My search for 3 bedroom houses has now ticked up to 10 pages on rightmove.Nothing seems to be selling. Seeing a few starting to drop their asking price a few thousand. Also interestingly I have also seen some properties that were sold about three months back coming back onto the market. There are alot more goin to auction. I expect to see this increase over the next 3 months. Anyone spoke to any EA's recently?
  7. I am 33.Bought 1 bedroom flat in 1999 for £61,000 when lots of people told me not to. Sold on June 2007 for £168,500 when lots of people told me not to. Currently living at home with parents in a big empty 4 bedroom house. Planning to rent with girlfriend in the New Year when hopefully we will see MoM falls and everyone is shouting CRASH! Plan to buy a 3 bedroom semi or terraced house with a mortgage that I can afford rather than go out and tie a noose round my neck for the next 25 years. Thats if it goes where we all hope it to of course
  8. looks like those TV commercials are not having any effect yet then
  9. Also there was a article post on here abouts RICS advising its members to be cautious abut the valuation of property in the current climate. What people think their property is worth and what the lender thinks it is worth can be very different in a stagnant or falling market.
  10. I took my savings out of B&B last week and recieved a e-mail staing how they hoped i had'nt taken out my savings because of the latest turmoil, how secure B&B were and what wonderful rates they have. Must of been a few people doing this or why send the e-mail? Hopefully they should have a lot less funds to lend out to BTL.
  11. I think possibly more. I would not want to live in a flat near West Street.That is hen and stag central. Plenty of shouting of vomit till the early hours every weekend.
  12. You are correst in saying that these mortgages are available on paper but all of the sub-prime lot which offer most of these mortgages are not handing them out. According to C4 News the lenders are only giving prospective customers 48 hours to propose and package the mortgage before calling time. This processnormally takes 2 weeks. Upshot is that these companies are biding their time and hoping that the moneymarket will re-open. I do however accept that there are some of these available but only to prime,low risk customers. Is there enough of them to prop up the market? Only time will tell.
  13. Currently the Banks view BTL as lower risk of default. I personally can't see how but maybe the baks historical statisitics are masked by 10 years of rising prices and the fact that before this period most landlord were experienced with low LTV. Do you think this might change?It might take a few BTL defaults before this loop is tightened?
  14. I think you are correct in saying that they want to keep the wheels turning. But can they stop a correction in house prices? This animal that they have had a hand in creating has got so large that i am not sure that they can control it? This is such a huge animal as I understand it that the tinkering that the central banks are doing by dropping rates will not get the amount of approvals in both numbers and size of mortgages rolling to keep prices moving up. Plus the fact that peole watching a run on a high street bank,interest rate rises and doom and gloom in the media may make one or two but not all stop and think if they really want to mortgage themselves up to the eyeballs.I am just hoping that it is enough. If we get a buyers strike for even just 3 months and we get MoM that will snowball the strike. Just like people running to jump in when prices rise we will see buyers sitting on their hands and other rushing for the exit. I think that once the repos hit for the sub prime then this will hasten falls like in the US. There are alot of dodgy loans that will jump in price and the sub prime lenders do not hang about if someone defaults. I am also wondering if the banks en-masse looking at house price stagnation will be more inclined to reposses sooner rather than later to try and get the maximum amount at auction.
  15. There are many posters on here pointing to how interest rates and lending criteria will affect house prices. At this moment in time we are in stagnation and we are at a critical point on whether house prices will carry on or slide. Many on here and the press are pointing to the BoE jumping in and saving the market. But are we at the point of no return? There is a possibility that in the coming 3 months with the BoE intervention and the US leading the way to cutting rates we could see lower rates here either through libor dropping or the BoE taking the US lead. Arguments aside lets just assume for a moment that there are lower rates that reach the consumer. Will the crash still take place? I personally think yes. Even with lower rates risk pricing has now changed . All that packaging up of cheap subprime tosh and hiding it away has evaporated over night. Subprime lending is now extinct. How many subprime loans will default at the new level with all that crappy property that will be thrown onto the market with no buyers? This is a poison that will spread through all housing indexes and will turn already shaky confidence. I do believe that it is a whole raft of things that will cause the crash but if interest rates are lowered do you think they could reinflate the housing bubble?
  16. I have heard alot of adverts on the radio for Rydon developments. Not the odd one now and again but one almost every advert break. Must be eager to shift these
  17. Sounds a very nice increase in supply at the bottom of the pyramid. Please try and keep track and post any increases. My search on Rightmove of Bn2 which is quite a small area has recently jumped from 7 to nearly 9 pages. Will keep a eye out and post any updates. As far as prices the majority still seem determined to hold out for their asking price.
  18. Ok so we know about N/R aggressive mortgage selling has got them in to trouble. B&B are aggressive and into BTL so I would not touch them. I have some savings in A&L and i would like to know what risks they are exposed to. I thought they were the only UK bank to come clean so far on sub prime so this is why there share price has dropped although some say on this site not to touch them. Can anyone say for sure what A&L are exposed to?
  19. Yes Hove is include. I have not seen latest homes for a while but a couple of months ago some of the agent started using "new price" sticker on their adverts. I am sure there are a few EA's worrying about the sales volume impacting on their own looming fixed mortgage reset. There is alot of them chasing alot fewer sales and having to actually sale a house rather then take orders. Looked at transactions for Brighton June 2007 compared with June 2007 and there was 50% drop in the amount of sales. Puts pressure on EA's to succesfully talk down a vendors price expectations to a buyers expectations.
  20. Sounds like desperation. I am sure that in the latest jump in BTL mortgages will reflect quite a few more new landlords looking for students in Brighton.Could also account for the silly price inflation Brighton has seen in the last year but with yeilds so low maybe the investors have now suddenly evaporated? With the land registry reflecting 0% price inflation in Brighton and Hove for July maybe soon we might be seeing some negatives coming through soon. I am sure that that there will be a great many landlords wanting to sell once they see that they are subsidising a loss or want to protect their gains. I must admit I am keeping a eye on the three bedroom type house in the bn2 area. There has been quite a few more added in the last couple of weeks especially at the lower price end and there is alot of stock hanging about which 6 months ago would of gone in a blink of a eye.
  21. We have seen rates rise but I can't understand how a lender can offer higher rates to savers then borrowers If lenders are offering fixed rate bonds at 6.8% does this mean that rates for mortgages including fixes will be 7% and above very soon? There are still mortgage rates out there which are below 6%. Just wanted to see if someone knows why?
  22. Looking at the the leap in LIBOR rates over the last couple of weeks I am left wondering how much this will affect rates to prime borrowers. If interbank lending is more expensive then how can the consumer be insulated against this? I know that banks are now offering over 6% on saving but I am confused how they can be offering mortgages for less than this without a huge fee. . If this level of LIBOR is maintained and even hightened can we see fixed rates and tracker rates rising? And if so how long does this take to feed throught to the man on the street?
  23. Wait for the "To Let" sign to go up and remain up for a few months before a "For Sale" sign replaces it.
  24. Update on Brighton and Hove area. Plenty of supply coming to Market but few houses selling. Quite a few are coming back to market after being sold. I have also seen some prices readjusted lower but with no takers.I have seen in th last few days lots of lower end houses coming to market in the £230,000 area. Hopefully this could BTL's strting to jump ship LR figures for July which lag 2-3 months show monthly increase of 0.0 HPI and Yearly figures at 15%
  25. The most balanced report I have seen from the BBC for a long time. I would not expect the BBC to talk down the market unless we get actual MoM national falls. Ok so we had a EA stating in a area which was falling "were ok were ok" People believe EA's as much as politicians. Overall impression was that it was falling in most places and it was only the SE and London holding national prices up or a few areas where people are buying second homes. But on the horizon we have 5 interest rate rises affecting many people coming off fixed rates and problems from the US possibly affecting lending which was reported. I think us bears should be pleased with that report.No mention of the C word but no mention of supply and demand or BTL propping up the market either. A overall more balanced point I think.
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