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House Price Crash Forum

BigDipper

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About BigDipper

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  1. if you want people to discuss CWD with you can take a look on the free bulletin boards over on www.advfn.com. Long standing thread there with loads of CWD shorters that have been following the stock for months / years. Me included. Don't think many have made money on it yet as it invariably rises after any fall. Don't ask why.
  2. The economist magazine has had several articles on the global housing boom and I can remember an article in the past year that had figures on rental yields. Unfortunately I don't have a reference but you can search the archives at www.economist.com.
  3. Well at least he can claim to talk the talk and walk the walk
  4. http://www.londonstockexchange.com/LSECWS/...3931&source=RNS At the time of our preliminary announcement we pointed out that very weak trading conditions during the final quarter of 2004 had substantially depleted work in progress pipelines in our house agency, financial services and conveyancing businesses. As a consequence of that situation, which was exacerbated by our simultaneous efforts to incorporate the previously substantially underperforming businesses acquired from the Bradford & Bingley Group plc in October 2004, the Group will register a loss during the first quart
  5. I did some comparisons of oct 2003 with oct 2004 for IG11. All sales should be reported by now for these dates and found a fall of about 50%.
  6. Agree there. You can see this from what happened to house builders share prices in the last crash: the peak was in 89 but the housebuilder share prices only plunged in 90-91.
  7. Japan may well end up selling some of its treasuries but IMO there is no way they are going to be the first big holders of T bonds to start the selling, they have no reason to be: they have a deflationary economy teetering above recession. Selling those T bonds would definitely result in recession and higher deflation. Of all the big holders of T bonds Japan is the most likely to keep on buying. The economies with pegs to the dollar and high inflation are more likely to be the first to dump the dollar. That currency monitor is more likely to be used to detect sharp rises in the yen so that Ja
  8. In a normal situation (low inflation) this would lead to massive inflation in Japan. This is has happened several times in the past in European countries. But Japan has DEFLATION. They want inflation so it costs them nothing to have an ultra loose monetary policy. In fact, they WANT more inflation.
  9. I don't know what China is up to, but what I do know is that the day they decide to revalue/float they are not going to give anyone advance warning. We will all wake up one morning and they will have revalued.
  10. As far as I understand the economics of this, Japan is effectively paying monkey money for the T bonds they have bought. The yen they use for buying T bonds is equivalent to yen that they can print through virtue of being the central bank. So it only cost them the price of the paper the yen are printed on, to acquire the T bonds they hold. Of course, in any normal situation a central bank can't do this because inflation would go through the roof. But Japan has deflation so they just go on printing = ultra loose monetary policy!
  11. Of course China keeps saying that, we are in a run on the bank situation here i.e. for everybody except Japan, America being the bank. If you think your bank is going bust and you have massive deposits at that bank what do you do? You withdraw your money, but the one thing you don't do is give all other bank customers advance warning of the fact that you will be withdrawing. Because if you do that, by the time you turn up at the bank your deposits will be gone.
  12. There is no way that japan will be the first to move when it comes to dumping dollar assets. Japan is suffering from deflation so they don't care a dot about printing yen and using it to buy dollar denominated treasuries thus keeping the yen weak against the dollar. The japanese are desperate for a bit of inflation. China on the other hand has a runaway economy with rising inflation partly due to their peg on the dollar which means that they essentially have the US's monetary policy. They can't afford for inflation to rise much further from its current levels, so at some point they will have
  13. All the evidence, RICS, mortgage approvals, personal observations, etc, etc, points to a massive slowdown in turnover in the housing market even if house prices are not yet crashing but merely sliding. But could someone explain to me why Countrywide's share price remains so high. Countrywide (biggest estate agents in the country) has made three profit warnings, the price dips after each warning but within a week it is back where is was before the profit warning. Strange. Any theories. http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast....cgi?csi=103971 Note: three profit warnings in the period cover
  14. Well that would be an explanation if Countrywide actually had a low PE, like the builders with PEs of 5-6. But Countrywide has a PE ratio of 12.5 i.e. not that different from the average for the whole market.
  15. Yeah, those graphs are strange and even stranger if you look at the detail of what has happened since june. Look at the movement of the share price immediately after each of the profit warnings and you will see how strong the rebound is. 12 August 23 September 19 November In the last profit warning, the statement is something like: "profits for the full year will be SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW market forecasts", I translate this to "we believe our stock to be SIGNIFICANTLY overvalued". And when you issue such a warning three times when the share price keeps on rebounding, what they are saying t
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