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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by huw

  1. Doves are wimps and hawks are hardcore The hawks on the MPC will be the ones pushing for a (bigger) rate rise.
  2. Basically I don't actively want a crash because of the fallout it will bring (which will affect everybody) but I believe a crash is inevitable, and the longer it's delayed the worse it will be for the UK. So the sooner the better. As far as personal housing circumstances go--they don't come into it. I like where I live and have no intention of moving (though my gut instinct is that it would be the right thing to do financially). Did quite enough buying, selling, improving and moving between 1994 and 2005...
  3. Actually she's often (always?) made it clear that the participants on her shows benefited from the rising market rather than from their own talents and efforts. In many cases it's been plain that the work done has destroyed value; only a mad masochist would be seduced into a life of property development by watching the experiences of Beeny's punters! Overall, I would say she is about as responsible for HPI as Gary Rhodes and Jamie Oliver are for the national obesity epidemic.
  4. If the state is to act as buyer of last resort then it must go the whole hog and take the properties into public ownership at prevailing market prices. No propping up of prices to rescue reckless lenders, and no subsidies for reckless borrowers to stay in homes they can't afford. The country could do with more social housing in any case--and can always sell it again, as the next boom gathers steam
  5. When I was a kid I sometimes made sucker bets against my younger siblings, only to find the winnings uncollectable either because of societal (parental) pressure or simply because it made me feel too guilty. Seems to me that when dealing with old folks, the banks need to learn the same lesson. Which is not to excuse those who bet and lost, and are now whining.
  6. Which is why I said it leads to a tragedy of the commons: everybody grabbing whatever they can, until the system breaks.
  7. Exactly. State bail-out = another transfer from the prudent to the irresponsible. If that were on the cards every sensible person would be queuing at the bank for the biggest loan they could get--and you'd soon be into tragedy-of-the-commons territory. While I sympathise with those who have been gulled into over-borrowing, every one of them is presumably 18+, of sound mind, and expects to be afforded the privileges of adulthood (entering in to contracts, voting, making their own life-decisions etc). How can one expect to be treated as an adult in these things if one then demands to be shielded by a paternal authority from their consequences?
  8. = direct political interference in IRs; not exactly good news in the longer term...
  9. Then they're pyramid scheme pushers, not cultists
  10. Interesting thread, and I've seen several threads/posts along similar lines in the few days I've been reading this forum. The people pressuring others to buy probably don't, in many cases, qualify as bulls (in the sense that a bull/bear should think about his position and have some kind intellectual underpinning for it). With so many, the analysis stops at 'you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar'. Some of what I read here makes the HPI bandwagon seem like a cult, with friends, in-laws and colleagues trying to recruit new members. Or maybe a pyramid scheme is a better description.
  11. I wonder if they mean average household income, which would seem to be more relevant than individual salaries.
  12. The article equates FTBs with future generations. I've heard about banks wanting to catch customers young, but that's ridiculous.
  13. It's dysfunctional to the extent that it relies on continuous compound economic growth to service ever increasing debt. This is a problem as long as we live in a world with finite space, resources, and population carrying capacity.
  14. Speaking of breaking up nations, anybody read "Cities and the Wealth of Nations" by Jane Jacobs? Jacobs argued (she died recently) that modern nations are too big and monolithic. Partly this is due to the problems of having currency to suit all areas (one size doesn't fit all, as certain Euro members have found). Her preferred economic unit was the city state, with an associated agricultural/resource/leisure hinterland. It's years since I read the book so I'm sure there's lots of details I've forgotten... but anyway, while breaking up the UK would cause immediate hardship in the regions, in the long term it might invigorate many places that are currently stagnating. People steeped in benefit culture would have to buck their ideas up, but would that be such a bad thing... if Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia can make it, why not Wales?
  15. When I worked in the City (this was before I realised that the wealth generated there was a debt-based hallucination) I was all for the London Republic so we could stop subsidising the various UK regions (incl Scotland and Wales, but the English regions as well). Looking around my borough (Hackney) I could see we needed help more than most. Eventually I realised that the choice was between being contributor in London or a beneficiary elsewhere. I'd had enough of being treated as a tax drone so in 2003 I sold my house and moved back to Wales
  16. And make sure you can keep an eye on that land, 'cos if it gets to the point where you need to grow food, it's also got to the point where people will steal unguarded crops.
  17. How about aggressively linking stamp duty and/or some mortgage surcharge to HPI? Is HPI too much of a trailing/rear-view measure to be used in this way?
  18. The thing I find most ironic is that childless career couples end up funding chav offspring through the tax/benefit system: state-enforced suicide for entire gene lines, if you like.
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