petetong
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Posts posted by petetong
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A good analysis of inflation figures:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsp9ajJCJ-4&t=337s
Suggests drop this month is in effect an accounting trick ...
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15 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:
5 year fixes falling from 4.5% to 4% isn’t going to result in house prices rising 1%, let alone 10-20%…
I hope you're right but around my neck of the woods I haven't seen much in the way of price drops so ain't hopeful.
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35 minutes ago, deerohdeer1 said:
Posted this on another thread but today's CPI signalled the beginning of the end.
It's not going to happen, FED are done, means BOE are done.
@Stewyis a troll but he's closer to being right than everyone else. It's going to be cuts 2024.
Too much cash spilling around the place. Even if we hit a recession I don't think it will have a macro effect on property prices.
The K recovery is crystalizing to me, you just have a smaller group of haves and a bigger group of have nots. I was sure this time it would be a proper 30% correction but I'm wrong.
I think nominally this will be the bottom, someone today somewhere got a 'bargain' today and the price will be 10-12% off peak.
Sorry gents, those hoping to finally get that bargain having waited 20 years are on the losing side. Again.
Yes, think you are right. I wouldn't be surprised as soon as they cut IR's house prices jump by 10-20% ...
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5 hours ago, jonb2 said:
Frankly, trying to dissect things. I think my prediction of an eternal conflict is spot-on. The extremists on both sides want it to continue. The tail is wagging the dog.
Two-state solution | Definition, Facts, History, & Map | Britannica
https://www.britannica.com/topic/two-state-solutionWhy there can never be a two-state solution | Conflict News | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/20/why-there-can-never-be-a-two-state-solutionIsraeli–Palestinian peace process - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli–Palestinian_peace_processIsrael-Palestine: the real reason there’s still no peace | Israel | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/16/the-real-reason-the-israel-palestine-peace-process-always-failsThe War in Gaza and the Death of the Two-State Solution
https://www.csis.org/analysis/war-gaza-and-death-two-state-solutionHistory of the Question of Palestine - Question of Palestine
https://www.un.org/unispal/history/The Israelis will never trust Palestinians and have no nobody with any incentive to stop the killing near government. Hamas is just the same. They deserver each other.
I notice governments round the world are getting a bit nervous of the genocide by association. Just watch a few hours of Al Jazeera to know what is happening in Gaza. Then there's the West Bank deteriorating into another major conflict too.
To those who argue it's the same as ISIS and Al Qaeda. No, it isn't - unlike their recent emergence, this conflict is over 100 years old, without any solution.
Israel's apartheid against Palestinians - Amnesty International
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/In 1948, Israeli forces drove 750,000 Palestinians out in the Nakba - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/11/03/israel-nakba-history-1948/A Threshold Crossed: Israeli Authorities and the Crimes of Apartheid and Persecution | HRW
https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecutionMost decent people have an inbuilt sense of injustice and fairness. The core of the calls for a ceasefire is to acknowledge one side is looking at genocide, the other isn't. It's always about the proportionality. The Israeli leadership seem to see Palestinians as Hitler regarded the Jews - sub-human animals. And it shows.
Violence will never solve the 100 year problem. Ever.
Benjamin needs to go.
As regards Hamas, who are an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, they have similar beliefs to ISIS etc.
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1 minute ago, A.steve said:
QE acts to reduce interest rates, because the BoE - acting for the Treasury - borrows money and spends it on debt instruments - creating "artificial" demand - raising their price... and, hence, lowering their yield. If the government spends the money it borrows on other things, the value of those other things will increase. If the government spends borrowed money on wages, then we see 'inflation' - which conventional wisdom dictates should be tackled with increased interest rates.
Personally, I don't believe that inflation should be the target of monetary policy... I don't believe interest rates should be adjusted to "manage" the economy. I don't believe interest rates should have been very low when inflation metrics were low - so I don't believe they should rise because inflation metrics rise. I believe that (risk free) interest rates should be fixed (at a rate higher than today) and that this should define a fiat currency and provide confidence in the manner in which it describes value. I believe fiscal policy (especially public sector pay deals) dramatically affect inflation. I believe a lack of accountability of commercial banks, when they make inappropriate loans, debases currency.
I think a case can be made that monetary policy could be used in an attempt to influence fiscal policy. If financial institutions were to precipitate a bond crisis, they could exert significant influence over supposedly democratically appointed governments. If one were to entertain such a possibility - one would probably want to know who could orchestrate a bond crisis - and what would motivate them to do so.
Presumably by using QE as a mechanism to keep IR's artificially low, it makes bonds an increasingly less attractive investment or is that not the case ?
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On 08/11/2023 at 20:32, jonb2 said:
You can't grind an ideology, a grievance into the ground with bullets and bombs. It needs a political solution and not one where the other side has been bombed into the ground and hates your guts even more than when it started.
How do you get a political solution when Hamas's stated aim is the destruction of Israel and annihilation of all jews, and some other aims, which pretty much match ISIS's aims/doctrine ? From what I've read there a have been multiple two state deals offered over the last 70 years and all have been rejected, including by Arafat. It appears there will never be peace whilst you have Hamas and Hezbollah (Iran) there.
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26 minutes ago, A.steve said:
The problem with your explanation is that government fiscal over-spend, funded by bond issuance, is also 'money creation'. You previously argued that this money creation (and not now the money is spent) was the only thing that led to increased rates.
It isn't coherent to argue that the same phenomenon leads to both lower and higher rates.
How does it work then ? Can they carry on with their QE scam and get lower IR's or not ?
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6 hours ago, JDI said:
Are you suggesting that people applying for assistance with mortgage payments is easily open to fraud?
Well it wouldn't be the first time for a tax payer funded scheme to be rinsed by the unscrupulous would it ? Time will tell ...
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3 hours ago, JDI said:
Applicants will need to give evidence of the difficulties they have. It doesn't sound to me like it's a simple opt in process.
You mean like the covid bounce back loans. If you expect serious due diligence for this you're having a giraffe ...
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6 hours ago, Yvonne said:
If this is a sign of things to come from Labour, I'm now thinking of voting for the Greens at the next election....
It's pretty obvious that if Labour get in something like this is on the cards ... We've had Reeves continually saying similar and this will just be the "test" ... Good to know they are going to bail out people who bought a massive house they couldn't afford on a I/O mortgage at tax payers expense. This country is an absolute corrupt joke ...
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12 hours ago, andrewwk said:
USA is the only real player. China are doing some weird communist thing and trying to destroy their tech industry + India has not really shown that it can move beyond mid-level IT work (although that may change)
All three seem to be doing better than UK whose esteemed leaders allowed foreign buyers to buy Deep Mind and ARM ..
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On 04/11/2023 at 21:59, Insane said:
That is a bit easier said than done. There are certain people who can live on the dole but you need to have a few of the following.
1. Children
2. A child with special needs.
3. Accepted as special needs yourself.
4. Like any job experience is essential to navigate the system to bleed it.
5. Ability to adapt to the pitfalls like money being stopped from time to time due to done on purpose admin fails by the staff.
6. Accept the negativity of it all ( it is no fun) and you won't be mixing in positive circles.
7. In rented accommodation preferably council housing as they won't pay your mortgage and if in private rented it can cause issues if you ever need to move many landlords won't take social tenants.
Jo average who has worked all his life will not see the safety net he thinks is there until he goes to claim and finds out he will not get much if anything. He will be urged to return to work as they know he is capable.
A good few years ago I tried to sign on and it was a nightmare I got nothing. During this period I got talking to a man outside the NON job centre while we were both there trying to sort out our money. He admitted to being what he called was a lifer i.e. someone who had been on benefits and unemployed for years. Then during the conversation he looked at me and worked out that I was new. He then said to me M8 you have worked before go back and do it again, this is no life, it is shit I am stuck like this now unemployable you are not go back to work and get out of this life.
It is no picnic.
Precisely, unless you have sprogs or are a landlord you will get bugger all of sod all in terms of benefits from the state. Too many people believe the horseshyte published in the Mail about benefits scroungers getting £500 a week ...
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18 minutes ago, fellow said:
It will still replace jobs though.
Exactly, a lot of people seem to think unless we have true AGI nothing will change much. Loads of mundane jobs/tasks will be automated using ML statistical learning, doesn't need to be sentient / AGI.
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On 28/10/2023 at 18:45, zugzwang said:
The Labour Party has been elected to govt a number of times but has never once espoused a policy of uncontrolled immigration.
Blair, Cameron, Johnson and Sunak are a rentier capitalists. Their embrace of mass immigration is ideologically unremarkable but they took care never to advertise the fact.
Of course they don't espouse that policy, they would lose what's left of their working class vote. You just need to look at what they have done, rather than what they say, in both cases.
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If UBI is a non-starter and AI/ML automation does automate millions of jobs, what's the solution ?
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4 hours ago, Bear Necessities said:
If you were talking about "net immigration" rather than "immigration", it might be best to use the right terms so we know what point you are trying to make?
Sorry, you forgot the word "net". Embarrassing for you.
Especially as it's one of the ones you can spell without assistance.
Yeah, I'm sorry "it's was" entirely obvious.
Not my problem if you're too dense to implicitly see what I meant. The 50K figure is a well known number for net immigration prior to 1997 and has often been quoted by tory politicians, e.g. Theresa May and in the media. The fact that you are unaware of that is due to your own ignorance. Love your "you've made a spelling mistake" , a pathetic attempt to try and undermine what I said. In the future I'll make sure everything I write is explicit as possible in the vain hope you might understand ...
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3 hours ago, Bear Necessities said:
@petetong Really looks like you can't read what you wrote. You said "prior Blair in 1997 immigration was never higher than approx. 50K a year" you made no mention of NET immigration which obviously isn't the same thing.
You said "immigration" was never higher than approx 50k, the graph proves that immigration was four times higher than that from the 60s onwards.
If you are going to argue a point at least remember to make the correct point in the first place. (If you'd been talking net immigration then you would have been correct.) Well done, have a biscuit, assuming that the powers that be haven't taken all your biscuits and then blamed it on immigrants.You're utterly laughable it's was entirely obvious what I was talking about and you know it ... owned 🤣
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4 minutes ago, Bear Necessities said:
@petetong 5 seconds of googling will find you a graph that shows that immigration to the uk in the 1970s and 1980s was around 200k a year and during the pre-blair part of the 90s it had risen to 300k.
So not sure where you are pulling your "never higher than 50k a year" figure out of.Really, looks like you can't read graphs ... net migration in the 70's and 80's was 50K tops, actually negative some years ...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283287/net-migration-figures-of-the-united-kingdom-y-on-y/
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39 minutes ago, winkie said:
Had to stop the Europeans so that there is more space for the rest of the world......we can't change it, so we have to change ourselves, our lives, or accept and adapt to the changes that will happen.....not the only changes coming our way.
We can do whatever we want in that regard, the fact is most politicians and a proportion of the population want it to happen for various self serving reasons, and to hell with the consequences, e.g destruction of natural environment and massive losses in biodiversity, and reduction in quality of life for many due to the effects of such policies e.g. HPI, rent inflation and utterly useless public services due to excess demand, lack of public housing etc.
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24 minutes ago, winkie said:
Immigration will continue, brexit was never anything to do with immigration......it was sold to many that it was to get the vote, it was about more than that.......we will take almost anyone with money or skills required, ex commonwealth countries and certain asylum seekers from selective countries that arrive by plane......others that want to come to chance their luck a small boat is the only way.......We have always been open to immigration, we have ourselves emigrated to all regions of the empire world......their people our people.
🤣 self delusional fairy stories, prior Blair in 1997 immigration was never higher than approx. 50K a year, it was only 660K last year. Very sustainable 🤣 and it will only go higher. In 50 to 100 years the UK will be balkanised hell hole 😆
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25 minutes ago, winkie said:
If it got that bad thousands would be leaving not coming......most of us don't have to live in a place they no longer feel comfortable in, where they wouldn't want to bring children up in......some places are better family and children friendly.
Do you think it's improving then, compared to the late 80's/ early 90's for example ? 😆
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7 minutes ago, winkie said:
If it got that bad thousands would be leaving not coming......most of us don't have to live in a place they no longer feel comfortable in, where they wouldn't want to bring children up in......some places are better family and children friendly.
Majority couldn't leave even if they wanted ... Most countries only allow you in if you are really highly skilled not earning a bit over £20K like the UK. Try emigrating to the US or Aus/NZ ...
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21 hours ago, 70PC said:
Something to think about for people taking out 35 year mortgages in the expectation that their homes will be their pension.
"And we’re not immune here, either. In Britain, the birth rate is at a record low. There were 605,479 live births in England and Wales last year, down 3.1 per cent from 624,828 in 2021 – and the lowest number since 2002. Almost a third of those births were to women born outside the UK. The ONS has predicted that the UK’s natural population will start to decline in 2025, at which point there will be more deaths than births."
Telegraph just preparing it's readership for mass immigration on the millions scale ... which is going to happen under Labour or Tories. If the UK had any sense it would go the route of Japan and automate everything which is going to happen anyway but of course it won't as we are run by MP's who want property prices to go ever higher and for dogmatic open borders ideals, so population growth will continue so it's over 100 million in next 50 to 100 years. Good job we have unlimited land, water and resources. No wonder the Tories have binned any green policies and don't give a flying f*ck about open sewers for rivers ... hope your kids like it ....
CPI reported 15th Nov 2023 4.6% YoY
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Interesting analysis of this months inflation figures, basically says drop is an accounting trick: