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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by petetong

  1. Even with the pandemic and job losses, I can't see a big drop in prices. 300K people from Hong Kong are coming in 2021, potentially 5.5 million altogether. Simple supply / demand means prices will go up.
  2. On BBC news during the day they did a report from Manaus in Brazil, and a dr there was saying they were dismayed to see that the new variant there was killing a significant number of people in their 30's and 40's. Obviously only a news report and anecdotal but will be interesting to see if any new data emerges for it.
  3. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1385008/bitcoin-news-burton-malkiel-cryptocurrency-collapse-wall-street-random-walk-spt Obviously a good investment if you were in early, not so sure now given its volatility and the vested interests who will be undermining it (no pun intended).
  4. Yep I know how you feel from both a financial and nomadic/free spirit point of view, if you go for it good luck.
  5. I am thinking of buying a narrowboat to live on. Yes I know a buying a boat is guaranteed way to lose money but I could jack in work and any losses would be dwarfed by any potential losses of buying a house, if I could actually buy a decent one for a fair price. They can shove the housing market where the sun dont shine ...
  6. Anything half decent does seem to be going like hot cakes. One in cornwall I looked at came on rightmove late Tuesday, sold today, nothing that special just a decent house at fairly reasonable price for this current boom. Same in my local area, for some you can't even get a viewing unless you ring same day they come on. It does seem completely bonkers given the economic outlook but I also think that if they are debasing the currency it makes sense to some degree as at least it's a tangible asset, of course if house prices crash you could end up paying well over the odds. I really don't know what to think anymore. No doubt whatever I do will be wrong lol ...
  7. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-forecast-to-drop-by-14-next-year-lbj77clv2 House prices will fall by almost 14 per cent next year once the government’s temporary cut in stamp duty ends and the economic impact of coronavirus filters through to the property market, according to an analysis by an economic consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research.
  8. https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/covid-red-alert-birmingham-hospitals-18912398
  9. Based on the news today and various vested interests piping up, I imagine Richy Rich will be extending furlough for many until the spring. HPC postponed again ? Still selling like hot cakes near me, rang up today to look at one and was told nope, no more viewings at moment, we can put you on a waiting list to look at it, presumably if they don't get loads of offers above asking. Think it might partly be explained by the fact that the NHS and universities are the main big employers in the area, so many have not been affected financially by the pandemic. I am beginning to think we will see a drop of a few percent at best in house prices.
  10. I've found the actual study which was published/reported on 13th August. Initally was going on a newspaper report which was a bit inaccurate by the looks of it, but they say: The study findings also show that the overall infection fatality ratio - the proportion of infected people who died - was calculated to be 0.9 per cent https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
  11. That is not how you calculate infection fatality rate (IFR). It's the number of deaths divided by total number of infections, 6% of population are thought to have had covid-19 using the results of serological population surveys, so 6% of 6600000 is approximately 4 million. 41K deaths gives IFR of about 1%. I assume 1.2% quoted in the study used a different number of deaths or population figure, but even using your figures it's still around 1%. The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#Infection_fatality_rate
  12. 0.62% "loss" is presumably infection fatality rate ? The latest population serological surveys done in the UK indicate about 6% of Uk population have had covid-19, meaning a IFR of 1.2%.
  13. If we don't have vaccine deployed by winter I would think a second wave is very likely to some degree, we will have opened up more by then and the virus is believed to both more contagious and virulent in colder temperatures and winter humidity.
  14. Oliver James, a Manchester estate agent, said: “In the last two weeks we have done seven sales to Hong Kong buyers. We’ve sold three properties just today. Previously, we would maybe sell one to a Hong Kong buyer every six months.” Ben Hudson, of York estate agents Hudson Moodys, said he has sold five properties to Hong Kong buyers in the last eight weeks. “Normally we would sell two or three properties to Hong Kong buyers in a year. It’s a huge change,” he said. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/hong-kong-residents-snap-property-northern-england/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
  15. This new research is rather concerning as it suggests a high proportion of covid-19 patients, including those with mild disease as in this study only 30% were hospitalised for it, sustain heart abnormalities/damage, whether that is permanent or not is to be determined but I would have thought having ongoing inflammation in the myocardium would leave some sort of damage: Conclusions: Taken together, we demonstrate cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%) with recent COVID-19 illness, independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
  16. In that case, should we expect more mortgage approvals in the near future as banks have more funny money to loan or will banks use it to insulate themselves from bad debts of collapsing businesses and mortgage defaulters ?
  17. Where did you get 50% are false positives from, is it something recent ? I know when some serological surveys were done in California and came back with high figures for people who had already had it, the results were rubbished because the surveys did indeed have a very level of false positives. As I understand it when there is low prevalence of an infection in a population you get a high level of false positives, as in up to 50% or more, due to the serological tests specificity/sensitivity, as prevalence increases you get less false positives.
  18. Behind a paywall https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/30/lloyds-bank-falls-loss-covid-costs-weigh/ "It expects to lose £603m on mortgage defaults alone, up from a £38m provision for the same period in 2019, due to forecasts of steep house price falls."
  19. Around my area some houses going really quick at high prices but area is key unsurprisingly along with development potential although some that have been on the market for 6 months have gone in last 2 weeks. There are lots reductions but that is mostly from high initial asking prices generally. A converted small barn out in the sticks came on the market a month ago at £375K, went down to £345K after 3 weeks and it's now market at £275K, so clearly someone trying their luck initially and now getting more desperate. A 2 bedroom cottage/end of terrace, a former new build, £410K, in a market town, is probably the most laughable one I've seen recently, make it £150K and it would be ok if you were in the market for that sort of home I suppose although I'd still find paying that irksome for that ... Generally prices have gone up £10K to £20K a year over the last 20 years around here. I was beginning to think perhaps it was now or never as it seemed to go crazy but the recent news about covid-19 and job losses and I think a decent drop is on the cards as i think there will be a lot of desperate people about unless the government does something extreme in terms of mortgage assistance.
  20. I think a house is probably the safest option out of the lot though given the vested interests involved, but obviously that means either paying top dollar now or waiting and hoping you time it right for any drop, assuming one comes.
  21. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/renting/landlords-losses-hit-57bn-2024-four-times-2008-financial-crash/ Behind paywall unfortunately but the BTL brigade won't be happy if it transpires.
  22. In which case wouldn't it make sense to buy a house before it all implodes, as then you at least have a tangible asset rather than worthless fiat ? If not that, perhaps change it all into RMB or some other currency that might survive the reset intact and hope you get a decent exchange once it's played out.
  23. As those events are mainly outside the chances of transmission are fairly low particularly at this time of year as it is now believed by some scientists, some at Oxford Uni for one, that part of the reason for the first wave infection and mortality rates decreasing is higher temperatures and summer humidity levels. This is why a winter second wave could be on the cards as virus is lot more transmissible and virulent (deadly) in winter temperatures and humidity. If we don't get vaccine by autumn for mass deployment a second wave really could be on cards, particularly as they don't want to lockdown again and people will be indoors a lot more.
  24. UK records 148 deaths in last 24 hours, double what was recorded last Saturday and 3 weeks since shops were allowed to open, the first major easing of lockdown measures. Might be a blip or possibly not: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8513095/Britain-records-39-Covid-deaths-hospitals-24-hours.html Winter second wave seems likely as they are now saying virus survives 10 times longer in the cold, optimally 4C.
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