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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by petetong



    Andrew Dixon, founder of Faire Share stated: “The Government is under increasing pressure to get to grips with the housing crisis and ensure foreign homeowners pay their fair share of property tax.

    “Adopting a Proportional Property Tax would mean lower bills for the majority of households in the UK while the surcharge on these purchases would lead to hundreds of thousands of homes coming onto the market for UK residents.”


    Of course the government and Sunak are having none of it:


    A Government spokesperson said: "An annual house price tax would mean soaring bills for many hard-working families and pensioners who have saved and improved their homes. We have no plans to make these changes.

    “We’re providing support worth around £12bn this financial year and next to help families with the cost of living.

    "We’re cutting the Universal Credit taper to make sure work pays, freezing alcohol and fuel duties to keep costs down, and providing targeted support to help households with their energy bills.”


    I presume when they say hard working families they mean investors 🤣



  2. Yes I've noticed it recently, and quite a lot that came on earlier last year didn't shift and then had 20 to 50K added to prices, nuts. There was a brief lull in October and then it went nuts again. Have put an offer on one, if we don't get it I reckon that's it and only a massive HPC will give us a chance of anything we want. I thought it had reached the ceiling but clearly there is more free money available than i thought ..

  3. 59 minutes ago, steve99 said:

    Many are deemed unemployable by employers. When I lost my real job at the age of 49, I was never to be employed again in my hard won IT/technical field of employment.  This was purely based on ageism in London at the time.  A year later my wife got tossed out of work to make way for rotating Indian contractors, ostensibly working and being paid in India but onshore in the UK.  She got a short contact after that but then became quite sick for a while. When she later applied for jobs, ie in an industry that she had 25 years experience, the agencies and employers deemed her unemployable for a)being 49 years old and b) having taken nearly a year off work.  Neither of us has had a decent job since and even part time McJobs have been difficult to get for the very same  idiotic reasons. The combination of prejudices and pickiness of the combined forces of employers, managers and agencies deprives businesses of a sh*tload of decent employees.  Then of course they go screaming 'shortage' to the government to get an immigrant concession.   What HR departments and employment agencies are completely oblivious to is the fact that Qualification + Experience is always worth a lot more than just Qualification but on the whole they equate them as being equal, especially if they think they can get it cheaper.    My ex company found out when they exported most of our work to India, into an newly set up tech department with a heap of newly qualified IT graduates but almost zero experience apart from a few short courses they put on for them in the UK,  Of course within a very short time of this being set up, the whole lot collapsed and the already failing company lost half of its customers in a very few short months.

    IT is not a career to go into anymore. It's what they did with a lot of blue collar manufacturing jobs. Now they are going after the white collar/tech jobs together with those lost to increasing automation. Elon Tusk for example was saying recently they'd replaced a big chunk of heuristic C++ code with a neural net in his cars autopilot, so not even software development is going to be immune and a lot of infrastructure roles have been lost to the cloud etc.

  4. On 19/12/2021 at 11:45, Pop321 said:

    I haven’t paid off my old buy to let mortgages for this very reason and it’s a fair chunk of money. When it’s interest only and you are old trackers at 1% £450k in this example can be as low as £4.5k a year payments ie just £200 per month!!

    What I haven’t done is been brave enough to invest in shares (a missed opportunity I know) but rather I have been earning 0.5% in cash and paying out 1.2% (tax deductible🤦🏻‍♂️😉)  in mortgages. I do have a large invested SIPP but really that’s not part of the ‘off set equation’ but only mentioned because it illustrates some exposure to equities  

    My aim in 2022 is to wait for weakness in a sector and buy 3/4 £20k (for me a fairly modest % of my total cash) tranches of yielding shares so maybe £80k max. Probably a bank eg Lloyds, mining eg Polymetal, one power eg BP and another traditional eg M&S or BT. More to be held long term and if they have an individual 100% burst in price eg takeover, only then I would review and look to sell.

    Its a bit off thread but perhaps highlights with rates this low how it is impacting people’s behaviour. I can see how some people can be drawn into buying houses even if they are overpriced. It’s even more understandable if you can buy something that is a half decent bargain like my son did at the Christmas dip last year.

    I don’t buy anymore and don’t advocate buying….but I have empathy for those who do it with their eyes wide open. My son now pays £650 a month (of which only £150 is interest) in a mortgage rather than his neighbours who rent for £1000. It’s a 5 year fix so in that time he will have repaid a chunk and be on his way to ‘no payments’. To be fair though he still bought ‘fairly’ well and although a modest home it was a forever space so if in 5 years time he doesn’t need to move due to more babies, needing more space, better location etc. 

    Why don't you advocate buying, do you think a decent correction is coming with IR increasing/inflation ?

  5. On 21/12/2021 at 17:15, wighty said:

    Maybe - who really knows?. I'd have thought all the bad KNOWN news is priced in.

    That's where drip feeding rather than "all in" reduces risk.

    If it drops you buy more units, if it rises your portfolio value increases. You should take a 5 year view.

    Buy funds to minimise risk and make sure you wont need the money.

    Discrete calendar year performance

    Investment 20/12/16 -
    20/12/17 -
    20/12/18 -
    20/12/19 -
    20/12/20 -
    Fundsmith Equity I Acc 23.92% 3.3% 24.64% 18.43% 18.75%

    Cumulative performance

    Investment 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years
    Fundsmith Equity I Acc 2.76% 7.5% 18.75% 75.29% 124.38%

    Thanks, yep good point. Their yearly performance is very impressive. 

  6. Official inflation rise to 10% (the real figure being around 15%)

    Interest rates rises towards 3%

    House prices drop 10%

    Russian invades Ukraine, NATO does nothing apart from US/UK arming Ukraine further, Ukraine will cause heavy Russian casualties using Turkish drones, causing massive retaliation from Russia.

    Bojo will survive for next 6 months

    Depending where covid goes, either the stock market will either stay where it is now with minor variation or if a very contagious but virulent strain of covid arises there will be a massive crash.

    Antivax/covid denier movement will grow as public tire further of covid and government actions around it.

    Tesla share price will take big hit.

    Crypto's bubble will finally burst unless people see it as a haven from inflation.

    I won't buy a house ..





  7. 9 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

    This was expected. When those responsible for handing out loans within the banking industry saw the lax criteria, they warned the government, and when the government wasn't bothered, asked to be protected from future liability. I imagine it was easier to get a 50 grand loan than claim 75 pounds a week unemployment benefits. I actually believe the government didn't really care about fraud, or loans unlikely to be paid back. Main objective was to pump money into the economy to avoid deflation.

    Indeed, got to stop fraudulent benefit claims for £75 a week, fraudulent claims are a very small % of total benefit claims in general, but lets give our mates and other fraudsters multiples of £50K ... How the hell Infosys got furlough money is beyond belief. If they were worried about deflation, they could have given everyone £1K or similar like they did in the US, but that would be seen as socialism, whereas bounce back loans for "hard working" companies are virtuous. I notice this isn't being reported in any of the Tory rags. A complete p*ss take.

  8. Report on BBC news said to day just under £5 billion of bounce back loans were fraudulent, out a total of £49 billion, so 10% of of claims were fraudulent, and that is probably an underestimate, also said £17 billion are predicted to be never paid back, and had interviews with business owners moaning they couldn't pay them back now they are due to start doing so. A complete and utter clusterf*ck. Also shows what a lie the BoE claim that all inflation is being imported ...

  9. 8 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    That link is to Austrian pension funds - I have no idea how their situation compares to the UK.

    Why are Investment Banks "chasing yields" and what do pension funds invest to do?  A DB pension scheme owes a pension of £4,000pa to Mrs Williams - they don't need to "chase yield" they just need to provide £4,000pa plus pension increases until she dies.  They are more interested in eliminating as much risk as possible.

    Index-Linked Gilts and AA-rated Corporate Bonds are usually the most popular as a good match for UK RPI-linked pension liabilities.

    Over my head, but suggests Index-Linked Gilts aren't a good investment, although this is 5 months old so maybe it's not the case any longer: 

    David Stevenson: I wouldn't touch inflation-linked bonds


  10. Property market unsustainable number homes sale falls record

     Meanwhile, demand is soaring, with 24 prospective buyers for each property available for sale. 

    This demand has been boosted by buy-to-let investors, who have been tempted back to the market by huge tenant demandand the promise of attractive yields. 

  11. Traders make £2bn bet against the pound

    "Traders have wagered a £2bn bet on a plunge in the pound after the Bank of England failed to deliver on a widely expected interest rate rise earlier this month.

    Shorts predicting a pound slump have soared to their highest level since June 2020, weekly trading data suggests. It marks a sharp reversal from just a few weeks ago, when bets for the pound were at a near four-month high as investors geared up for a string of rate rises to curb the surge in inflation."

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