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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by dryrot

  1. ~20% of 45trillion is what, 9trillion? phew! thx, feel much better
  2. like some posters, I like the property. looks fun! would they take an offer? (100k, cash?) edited to remove photo - oh and i noticed: "The property which is in the course of construction " in other words, the builderis bankrupt
  3. hi http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...3/ccview103.xml I'd laid in a case of champagne - because between the revolution and the firing squad, there's always time for a glass - but this from today's telegraph makes me rip the foil from another bottle. Through the sodden, glass-ringed paper I blearily make out... "The verdict is in. The Fed's emergency rate cuts in January have failed to halt the downward spiral towards a full-blown debt deflation. Much more drastic action will be needed" "The extent of de-leveraging involves a wholesale destruction of credit. The risk is that the 'shadow banking system' completely collapses," he said. For the first time since this Greek tragedy began, I am now really frightened."
  4. Kudos for admitting it! Better than boo.com who burnt $140m in 10 months... Mind you, it was'nt their money i suppose...
  5. hi Entertaining look back at the dot.com boom. Book a little whiny at times, and a sort of knee-jerk anti-americanism which grates - not sure why he included 9/11. But overall great fun and highly recommended as a sardonic history to those internet-hyped times. Why relevant to hpc? Well, the author notes how many savvy commentators were urging caution in 1997 - stating that tho the internet was new and amazing, valuations were mad. This sensible caution got harder as the boom continued - the bears, especially those employed as business journalists, got moved aside or changed tune - after all, if you said yahoo was overvalued at $100, and then it went to $200, then (1998) $300, then (1999) eventually $500 (market cap $131B!) it took some courage to stick with any normal valuation. Then it all crashed, of course (at least yahoo is still there, although ~20% of peak. Many hyped cos just went bust, as you know) My point is all those who bought in 2005 - will they see losses? Is 2003 the 1998 of the property market? Will we go back to 1997-type prices, before the mad hype? (I hope not, as I bought in 2000 )
  6. hi from "the Atlantic" this month. Surprisingly bullish about inner city living but a nightmare-scenario-situation wrt the McMansion suburbs. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime "Strange days are upon the residents of many a suburban cul-de-sac. Once-tidy yards have become overgrown, as the houses they front have gone vacant. Signs of physical and social disorder are spreading. At Windy Ridge, a recently built starter-home development seven miles northwest of Charlotte, North Carolina, 81 of the community’s 132 small, vinyl-sided houses were in foreclosure as of late last year. Vandals have kicked in doors and stripped the copper wire from vacant houses; drug users and homeless people have furtively moved in. In December, after a stray bullet blasted through her son’s bedroom and into her own, Laurie Talbot, who’d moved to Windy Ridge from New York in 2005, told The Charlotte Observer, “I thought I’d bought a home in Pleasantville. I never imagined in my wildest dreams that stuff like this would happen.” In the Franklin Reserve neighborhood of Elk Grove, California, south of Sacramento, the houses are nicer than those at Windy Ridge—many once sold for well over $500,000—but the phenomenon is the same. At the height of the boom, 10,000 new homes were built there in just four years. Now many are empty; renters of dubious character occupy others. Graffiti, broken windows, and other markers of decay have multiplied. Susan McDonald, president of the local residents’ association and an executive at a local bank, told the Associated Press, “There’s been gang activity. Things have really been changing, the last few years.”
  7. really interesting question! I'm always pessimistic I would try and remove financial issues from family/relationships, where possible. If you're not careful, you will have paid £200k for a house you don't own. This "move to France" thang is a bit 2001-ish - are they really sure of what they are doing? They should NOT buy at first. Rent in the country, and see how desolate the countryside is before buying. Its easier to buy these things than sell 'em. So I'd advise you in-laws to rent, and you rent off 'em if they want to keep the UK house. (but get the £65k upfront! )
  8. From the article: "The move will be a blow for first-time buyers struggling to save for a deposit .." how so? its great for honest FTBs. prices will fall and those who are prudent and save will be rewarded1 (for once...)
  9. [deleted] the "rent paid for first year" scam is to entice amateurs. You see a lot of that in holiday developments. Professionals will want a reduction in asking price (or backhanders after completion to scam the land registry)
  10. One of the stores quoted as shutting is "Mega £1 ". If the "everythning for a pound" stores are going under, the place definately is £$%^ed...
  11. this is anecdote city... but a FOAF story, and I believe it. Phone canvassers selling dodgy diamonds and land concentrate on doctors, specially in the US. Drs tend to be rich, marry other drs, and are v high-status in their workplace - their word is law. They expect expertise of others, too, at work. Outside of work, they can be vulnerable to aggressive sales techniques that put them on the defensive. i agree the self-pity is nauseous, tho'!
  12. I've read this a few times, and am still confused. OK, my comment about "suicide bomber secondary" was a bit puerile - but can you expand on your "hatred" of "this country's immigration policy", omitting any terrifying shadow of "rascism" [sic]?
  13. You mean: "If we can hit that bull's-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards... Checkmate." Zapp Brannigan - Futurama. I also like: "You win again, gravity!"
  14. Replying to my own post - but back page of Evening Standard Property Supplement today shows "5% Rental Guarantee" on some £360k newbuild in Hoxton... "Barcelona-type living in Shoreditch..." (yes, really ) http://www.pegasohoxton.com/ website does not mention offer, only news ad.
  15. Agree. some friends of mine with offset-mortgages took out interest-free offers from credit cards. You pay it back from the offset loan when the interest-free period is over. This took some planning (DON'T miss the deadine to pay it back or you are charged :-) ) but it saved about £50 each month per £10k. One had pushing £60k this way so it adds up. It is less easy (impossible) now that there are transfer fees. Other problem was getting new loans, as many of the credit cards were owned by the same bank... Otherwise it was risk-(and tax-) free money. (It did not work for me as I did'nt have a mortgage.... I thought of borrowing £10k and putting it in premium bonds, but too much hassle. Saving offset interest much easier)
  16. Don't forget, if one of the "developer discounts" was a "guaranteed rental for two years", then the rent stops dead after that period. Not so sure how prevalent this is in UK - it's a classic holiday-flat scam - but I bet it is a factor
  17. Jim Jones was the Peoples Temple pastor (Guyana kool-aid-cyanide-drink gang). No space ships, just "revolutionary suicide" The space ship was the Heavens Gate crew, to be rescued by the ship behind the Hale-Bopp comet. Please, get your death-cults properly arranged.
  18. I try to talk to my colleagues about HPC, but they get bored. (I know, cos they just take a last swig of meths, pull the cardboard up to their chests and roll over to sleep by the brazier.)
  19. Be careful though - when the hammer falls you may end up with it...
  20. thank you too! In the UK the borrower is liable for any shortfall. Handling the keys back does not absolve u of the debt. This was a major issue last time. ppl thought that "keys back" was problem over - not so unless the sale is more than the debt. in practical terms it forced ppl into bankruptcy. The banks - in the first 90s crash - were IMHO gobsmacked, they never thought house prices could fall, either... agree completely! except "motivated" sellers in the last sentence. You miss-spelled "desperate"
  21. If they are repos, then the banks/BS's may be covering their *rses. There were problems last crash with mortgagees dumping repo'd property cheaply, and leaving the mortgager with the shortfall. Allegations that they sold too cheaply. This way they try and sell for the outstanding mortgage amount (1st sale, oustanding amount as the reserve price). If (when..) that fails, they can sell with no reserve later ???
  22. of course (and to maxwell!) - reminds me of the ads in the Sporting Life "We have a system to beat the bookies"... Well, why don't they just use the system? I wonder on the legality of "instant equity" claims - but almost admire the chutzpah of trying to sell off-plan future-completion flats in Leeds at present!
  23. hi sounds more and more like the Ngerian 419 scam... latest from Assetz.co.uk... http://investors.assetz.co.uk/property-det...8&mid=17899 With mortgage rates expected to drop at least twice over the next year, the heavy discount on offer represents a fantastic opportunity to secure an absolute bargain. this is a fantastic low deposit, off-plan opportunity for our investors. These prestigious apartments in Leeds city centre will be ready in 18 months and are fully financed with money returned on completion (subject to bridge and refinance). 1 bed-apartment with balcony RICS valuation - £135,950 Assetz' negotiated price - £90,000 Borrow up to - £95,000 via bridge & refinance Summary Landmark development of luxury 1 and 2-bed apartments in Leeds town centre Ideal location next to new proposed £40 million shopping and retail development Up to 30% below market value Free equity from £29,950 High specification apartments, many with balconies Studios from £75,000 net, 1-beds from £90,000 net, 2-beds from £130,000 net Bridge and refinance to get money out on completion Completion - Summer 2009
  24. Hi, Well, all the bears have missed out. Sorry, got to dash to extend my mortgage and buy anothe BTL! Usual assetz hype, I particularly liked "market appears to be showing its usual upturn part way through the month following the New Year" http://investors.assetz.co.uk/blog/?mid=17803 Buyer's market showing early signs of ending One of the key house price indices to keep an eye on is the Rightmove index - not because it's more accurate than others but because it reflects asking prices rather than mortgage offers made or land registry transactions recorded. The reason this is important is that it is the most reflective indices of sentiment of both buyers and sellers. The Rightmove index is a leading indicator (for those technical analysts amongst you) and we use it as part of our overall charting of the market in our House Price Watch analysis released to the press each month in order to show the likely direction of house prices in the future in the other indices. We saw asking prices, via the Rightmove index, get carried away earlier this year with growth greater than the other indices. This is eventually slowed and we then saw the rate of growth of the Rightmove index decline sharply as the overenthusiastic asking prices of lenders got modified. We also saw artificial data in these asking prices coming from the introduction of HIPs. As HIPs came in on the big houses we saw vendors rushing to the market with a greater proportion of these type of properties and with rather aspirational price expectations which caused, we believe, the spike upwards in the Rightmove index in the middle of the year. Recently we saw the introduction of HIPs onto two-bedroom properties and we saw an unusual number of these properties coming to the market just before the deadline and we think this contributed to an artificial reduction in Rightmove prices at the end of the year. We've just seen data announced for January that shows a very slight reduction in house prices again of 0.8% for the month, however important information is contained within the comments made by Miles Shipside in analysing data not actually released with the overall monthly house price percentage change. Miles commented that the market appears to be showing its usual upturn part way through the month following the New Year, after a few months of slight decline. We would expect this to continue into the Spring and the fact it is now happening would indicate that the other indices will bottom out in the Spring as they show actual sales transactions taking place. Our view remains that the buyer's market where low bids are accepted by some vendors will reach an end in all likelihood by the summer and perhaps this comment from Rightmove indicates that the best days for silly bids being accepted have already passed as more buyers step into the market. Indeed press comment becomes less and less negative on the property market and we are seeing more and more reports of vulture funds being set up by professional property investors to take advantage of the artificially low prices in the grade A commercial property market, for example, as well as some funds now visible in the residential sector looking to buy up repossessions. Even Northern Rock was buying its own repossessions rather than sell them at auction. The devil is in the detail in this market and we are probably closer than most. Let's see if the data continues to back our view and act quickly to take advantage of the wonderful prices on offer at present from forced sellers. ---
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