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House Price Crash Forum

Fairies Wear Boots

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Everything posted by Fairies Wear Boots

  1. You've got to be joking. Most people I know (with house) love low interest rates. One guy complains bitterly about high petrol prices, even has his own petrol price spreadsheet. Yet I say, yeah the Bank of England should put interest rates up and he looks at me as if I should wash my mouth out with soap and water.
  2. Let's hope so. Good to hear the governments "under write someone without enough for a deposit" scheme is more hot air than substance!
  3. Don't you have to factor inflation into that? If inflation is 5 percent and you're getting 3 percent and then getting caught by 40 percent tax then you aren't doing so well. And if you're paying rent with your money, your pot is staying the same, and inflation is going up. So your pot is actually going down. I realise that houses aren't going up 5 percent and nor are wages. But apparently houses went up 2 percent in the last year where I am and I'm of the opinion that wages are going to start going up. (Inflationary spiral).
  4. The building industry is stuffed. Sitting around with expensive landbanks and not building anything. Why some HPCers thought this was a good thing in 2008 I'll never know. Gubbermint about to build 100K a year. Big deal. I'm a bit worried we will have a dead cat bounce if the government starts underwriting deposits for people. I was trawling rightmove today and it stated that 50 percent of the houses put on the market (last year?) didn't sell. It sums the market up. Stagnant, yet no forced sellers. People can't get stupid money. Take house off market. Repo's up a bit on normal. Mortages well cheap. BTLers looking to get back in and make the most of the cheap money on offer. Still the economy is going down the gurgler and Europe is a nice fine mess. I just hope that equates to lower prices in the near future.
  5. Why's it called the Pottsville plan? Why isn't it called British housing Planning?
  6. I find those comments quite interesting. Journo's knocking high house prices. However, the government's pledge to provide insurance, provides another prop for the housing market. ZIRP and money printing seems to be doing a good job so far. It might be destroying the economy, by destroying peoples purchasing power and retailers are starting to feel the squeeze, but house prices haven't dropped much. And I'm not sure why with the base rate staying where it has been for ages, that prices will start falling drastically in this climate.
  7. That pathetic amount after tax? It's not half as worthwhile as what it would save me in rent. We're seemingly an A star safe haven. Our debt is long dated, so they don't have to worry that we'll have to renew big proportions of it at high rates. Another credit crunch on the horizon could well be a kick start to house price drops. Sounds entirely sensible. I don't rate them at all. I think we're going to be in bad economic times for at least ten years. They've held the base rate where it is for umpteen months, it's not going up for years, and my guess is the house price status quo will go on for the next couple of years. We've had a dodgy economy for four years, house prices have managed to Wylie Coyote it since the first big initial freeze up. All the props are firmly in place. Guaranteeing deposits, a cunning new plan to get the housing market moving again. Sounds like a bit of a wheeze.
  8. Sorry, that is actually an interesting point. Do you think Eurocontagion is going to mean even less mortgage lending, or just that the whole entire economic system will go pop? Once they have propped up the PIIGS, what effect will that have on our housing market? The general economy is going to be less buoyant, but that hasn't seemed to stop people asking 2007+ figures for their houses, and people prepared to pay it.
  9. Yep and if you've got a decent sized deposit, with these small interest rates, you could be paying off a 3 percent nominal fall with the money you would have paid in rent. And you wouldn't have your wife bleating on at you, and the landlady keeping on putting up the rent.
  10. Don't call me shirley, it's Blondini, OK? That's what I'm afraid of. A slow crash, mostly in real terms.
  11. We're all going to cr*p out! I can understand all the last bear to turn, and the "cracks in the dam wall are starting" sentiment. I've been hoping for the second leg down for ages. And our economy is stuffed. I always thought the no shortage of houses brigade were a bunch of nutters. I just thought that the credit contraction would make prices fall even though we don't have an abundance of houses. Four years on and we can only look at America and weep. Gilts are well valuable, interest rates seem to be able to be maintained at the current level. The markets don't seem at all spooked by it. Repo's have dropped lately, and here is the government about to introduce gifted deposits or something like. Which we only had one reply about. I thought there would be more outrage. Is it that people think it will be on such a small scale that it won't matter? Sentiment can change quickly. But after four years of a diet of bad news, the populus still looks at property as an investment. Thank you ZIRP. (And bank forebearance). Maybe we'll get some action soon, but I don't see prices going down much in the next couple of years.
  12. I have been waiting for the second leg down to start in earnest. But quite frankly, I don't see it happening in the next few years. There was two reasons for the bubble, excessive lending, and a under supply of housing. True there are 900,000 empty houses in the country, but that's like saying there are tons of gold still in the ground. You can't count them as supply if they aren't up for sale. With the government using ZIRP and Queasing to combat the credit crunch, the lack of properties up for sale (minimal repos / forced sellers) has meant even though there is little demand, or ability to buy, prices haven't fallen much and have stagnated. I think the North East going down proves it has something to do with housing under supply. At work, one guy is saving his bum off so he can get a deposit together for a house. His dad is downsizing and moving to wales. With the equity left over, he'll be buying a holiday let. Another at work wants to move. His partner owns one house, they own the house they live in, and guess what, they're going to buy something bigger, but they're not going to attempt to sell current place, that'll be their second rental. Whether the banks say yes or no is another matter, but after four years of said crash, people think housing is still a good bet. Get it while it's still cheap! And now it appears the government is about to unleash a protected deposit scheme. All people who want to participate in the land hoarding ponzi, will now be able to jump aboard, only having to pay the interest while the government hands out the deposit. I see mortgage rationing. I see austerity measures slowing creeping in. I see inflation eroding peoples purchasing power, and so sluggish growth in the retail sector. Housing benefit cuts seem to be small and have a while to kick in. And yet I see people asking 2007 prices for property, and rents hitting all time highs. If you asked me for a prediction of where the base rate will be in 2 years time, my guess is 0.5 percent. Anyone want to correct me as to why I am wrong and the Haliwide will soon be going down by 2 percent a month again?
  13. Well if you do your sums using a low base rate then you can make it work.
  14. According to the guardian money section, rents have hit an all time high and landlords can demand and get eye watering amounts for their properties. Buying is cheaper in all regions of the UK. It also quotes how house prices are still rising albeit giving the caveat "if you believe Halifax".
  15. Rubbish. Next you'll be saying the real reason behind SMI is keeping bankers in bonuses
  16. Our interest rates are low, and they seem to be able to keep them there. So I don't see much action in house price drops for the next couple of years. The North East HPCers might be having a field day, but it's still stalemate in London. If you've got a big deposit getting stuff all interest and then being erroded by tax you could put it down and taking advantages of low interest rates, pay off more than they are falling in value. (Especially if they have gone up 2 percent YOY). Austerity starting to kick in might do something. Not sure why it hasn't already. I'm wondering when inflation is going to become such a problem that they need to do something about it. Retail sales growth sluggish, because people aren't getting payrises, so have to buy less, inflation being the problem. Base rate 0.5 because economy can't take higher rates. How gilts are still coveted, I don't know. If we are going to see some inflation, and inflation crosses over into wages, can they still keep the base rate down? I keep on having a circular argument that if I buy now and fix for ten years at 4percent and overpay. Then at the end of ten years, wages will have moved up, so if interest rates have moved up, then I will be being paid significantly more. And I will have paid off a lot, and only have four or so years left to pay off. But then I think if inflation has shot up, interest rates will have to have been risen and prices should have fallen. The missus has had about of enough of waiting, and after four years can't really blame her when prices have risen two percent year on year. I see spiralling inflation a good thing. Buy a house, keep on getting pay rises mortgage payments start to look smaller and smaller.
  17. If I'd been 'lured' in by a cheap price, I'd be tempted not to up it more, even if it was still good value. S*d em!
  18. Default used to sound bad. Now they are going to have their creditors take a fifty percent haircut. So they benefit from not actually defaulting, and all that goes with that, but unfortunately, they still have to pay back a whopping big amount, 50 percent. So does this mean that pension funds won't lose as much, and it'll be Euro taxpayers forking out for this? Will some peoples pension halve in value? Or just ten or so percent?
  19. So there is only a shortage in the South East. Houses in London manage to rise and North East falls 10 percent. That sounds about right. Also, loose lending has been a big factor in our bubble. But when that has gone, the fact we have a bit of a housing crisis in the South East means our prices have been able to stay up. Our market is stagnant. But bank of mum and dad buyers keep on buying, mean some new entrants enter the market. I don't understand your 25Ok houses comment. If people build houses everywhere, they will soon have to reduce their price to get a buyer. That's the point. There's not a great stock of houses, sitting around and there are enough buyers in the South East to still get a buyer if you price accordingly. You don't have to take much of a hair cut to sell your house.
  20. Oooh. Are they really proposing that? It's a cunning plan. Wouldn't the new arrivals though need jobs, so that would keep americans out of them?
  21. I've always believed the shortage of supply arguement. Rents are rising even in an economic malaise because we have a shitty housing stock that everybody has to fight over. America has ZIRP as well. Their house prices are falling like a stone because of the rows of big emtpy houses. Is the housing benefit cuts really going to put enough landlords in trouble or take down rental prices? Isn't it only new claims so people will sit in their current place. How long anything happens in significant scale? I didn't think SMI was a very big factor in keeping the market up, as it seems only a small amount of people qualify. Somehow inflation is squeezing people, yet people are still buying and selling houses, at high prices. And repo's have gone down. If the government build some houses, it might negate the fact some builders have stopped building, recently, they said immigration has gone back up. So the population is going up by 200K a year again. They seem to be talking about it at present. I'd be surprised if we see much action. Four years pent up? People who have wanted to sell for four years but haven't can probably wait indefinitely. Unemployment is at high levels. Yep. Not sure why that isn't turning into repos. Maybe it's Zirp. As you say, the North East has gone down ten percent. Hurrah, economics prevailing there. I've been waiting for the spring bounce to stop in London for 3 years. Economy totally screwed, austerity, no return to crazy lending. And yet, sellers being able to get demand a little bit more for a period of time. Cheap easy credit caused this crisis. Now we only have very cheap credit. This 'cure' seems to be having side effects, namely inflation. But presently, no one seems to care. The missus was having a bash at me to buy a house today. She said that the crash might not actually happen, and I couldn't honestly disagree. I thought if I manage to get her to hold off two years, house prices could be about where they are today.
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