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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ReggiePerrin

  1. Yeah I saw that as well ... something must be wrong with the data, no way have house prices dropped a 1/3rd round here in the last Qtr... which is a real shame
  2. or it's just the start of the "You can't raise interest rates because...." campaign by the press. As someone said in another thread, the papers will return to reporting huge rises in house prices the day after the BOE meet next week.
  3. It was a good link! I enjoyed this item which reminded me of the stories reported by the press during the last crash in the UK.
  4. That's a good point, one I overlooked, I agree there are other factors effecting HPI in NI. It could be said that any changes in the value of the £ against the € will have an effect on the mortgage payments/capital growth of the asset if people working in the south choose to buy in the north. Plus if the bubble does burst south of the border (and it appears to be doing so, albeit it's at an early stage) this will also effect the market in NI, as people can equally buy in the south and work in the north. For the ripple effect to be valid then price drops in an area within mainland UK which has experienced recent HPI as a direct result of price increases in a large metropolitan area would signal the downturn?
  5. The ripple effect gets quoted a lot within this forum, so I guess just as ripples move from the centre out to the edge then we should expect to see the ripple rebound back to the center once the wave gets to the edge. Given that NI is the farthest/newest HPI boom area a drop here would signify a major change in the market. I guess (I do this a lot so bear with me London or another large metropolitan area would not see any major drops in prices until the downturn is firmly established.
  6. The withdraw of products is standard practice if the lenders see an imminent rate rise in the near future. They did this last year and replaced them with higher rate products just prior to the BOE actually raising interest rates (this jan's rate increase took them by surprise). The lenders gave notice within hours of the release of the CPI and RPI figures this week when it became obvious the next move for interest rates was up.
  7. I heard today that a number of mortgage lenders have given notice that they're pulling there current fixed rate products next week, these will obviously be replaced with new offers. The question is will there be lower or higher rates associated with the new products? My guess is higher rates, so who needs to wait until the next BOE meeting if the mortgage lenders raise the interest rates first?
  8. Hi Wemb - Good to 'hear' from someone else from the same area as us and in the same predicament. My wife and I have stopped talking to 'normal' people about the price of houses a while ago, as most homeowners think their 3 bed box will fund their retirement, holidays and 4x4 ozone killers for the rest of their lives. I know the hole you're talking about, it's not exactly in one of the more desirable areas of Bath. I wonder what the latest owners think of their new buy now, what with an unsolved murder taking place on the other side of the street? It's not as though they can lock themselves in a cupboard if there's trouble, as they're already living in it. Prices have been stupid for a while now, what with the local EA's selling areas such as Whiteway and Twerton as desirable up and coming areas. This has to be another sign a correction is around the corner (For people not from Bath these are places you would not go after dark, sometimes not during the day either). I was a homeowner in the last crash and it wasn't until we were well into the downturn before people really understood what was going on and then only when they tried to sell or knew someone who was selling. I think it will be the same this time, it'll sneak up on us, no big headlines in the papers such as the 'Crash has started'. A bit like a snowball rolling downhill, it'll start slow and small and gather momentum, size and speed until it's unstoppable.
  9. Hi Does anyone have any links to some comparative data, e.g. is this a rise, drop or normal figure for refusals and what sort of percentage of total applications does it represent? Sadly this figure is meaningless in isolation... very poor article IMHO.
  10. I agree with you BudoBear, as soon as the coldwar ended we had meteors, asteroids and other fear inducing propaganda thrown at us. Now it's terrorism, ID theft... what next I wonder? the threat of a HPC? I would love to go through one of those.
  11. Happy Birthday subby I'm in the same boat as you living in rented accomodation with my family down in Bath, watching local houses being sold and seeing 'To Let' signs appear shortly after they're sold. I've been watching the local market for a few years now getting more and more depressed at the prospect at not being able to buy anything that could be called a family home now or in the future.... until recently. Although the prices seem to be still rising, if you believe the hype, the local weekly property paper here is now over 100 pages thick with properties well over 200k for a modest 3 bed box. Up until this year the paper was half the thickness (I admit this isn't very scientific... 'How heavy is the property paper in your area?' ) I now feel confident than that this cannot go on for much longer before a correction takes place and common sense returns to what is supposed to be a housing market. Some of the indicators for me that something is going to change include. Ridiculous lending by the banks and building societies. x5 income multiples, self cert, sub prime lending The increased number of empty BTL properties in the area where I live. If BTL is supposed to be an investment then hanging onto an asset that's losing you money is madness. My wife works in mortgage admin and the majority of the paperwork she now processes is for MEWing for BTL or debt consolidation A lack of first time buyers Longtime lurker, first time poster, p*(s poor speller
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