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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Timm

  1. Thanks for the link. It was interesting, possibly eye-opening.
  2. Awesome! Thank you so much!
  3. How do I log out when logged in on my phone?
  4. A house we were interested in at 400k came to the market 4 weeks ago at 450k. It did not sell immediately, but is now SSTC with no PR on rightmove. I am increasingly bearish, but local market activity does not support my view. Yet.
  5. Why? National average for second jab: 63.4% Central Oxford second jab: 11.5% https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
  6. In Oxford central (the University quarter) 7 days to the 21st June: 27 cases. One week later, to the 28th June: 314 cases. That is an increase of 1063% in a week.
  7. Just for fun, let's guess at some numbers. Down 9% by Christmas, with a bottom of 18% down. Nominal.
  8. Sans further market support, I can't see anything other than a bust. Edit: The above is for the housing market. For everything else - inflation.
  9. To be fair, Dr Kory is not completely dismissed by mainstream thought. Evan Davis gave his views a fair airing on PM yesterday.
  10. Just saw my first Chinook for months. During the second wave, I'd often see several in a day. No idea what they are doing, an undertaker friend (really) has scotched the rumor that they are transporting bodies / coffins. My (wild, utterly unfounded) guess is that they are transporting oxygen. Google is no help - search for "Chinook Oxygen" and all you get is salmon. *blinks*
  11. Yes, and any currency seen as too strong risks being overbought, risking the competitiveness of the host state.
  12. My guess is.inflation in CPI, wages and gov spending, with gentle deflation in assets. bank rate might nudge a bit up, but any heavy lifting will be done / attempted in the bond markets first. just a guess.
  13. The Sun is reporting that the end of stamp duty relief might result in a 14% fall in house prices. https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/14746178/will-house-prices-drop-stamp-duty-holiday-ends/ The Sun.
  14. This source thinks it might be 160,000 deals that miss out. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9689089/Homebuying-dreams-knife-edge-Stamp-Duty-deadline-approaches.html How many of those chains will survive and complete without the Stamp Duty savings?
  15. That's a good point. Which makes the fall even more surprising.
  16. As you know, this is the Land Registry - the most laggy of the indexes. Many of the sales that are included will have been agreed in January or even December. Doesn't tell us much about what is happening now.
  17. it's going to be absolute carnage. 1. Lots of purchases have been brought forward from the future. Those people won't be buying again soon. 2. Lots of chains are going to fall through - 50,000 is felt to be a conservative estimate. 3. Lots of potential buyers are going to find that not only has their deposit just reduced, so has the amount they can borrow. 4. Some chains will be held together after the deadline by everyone reducing their price a bit. This will show up in the stats. We are talking market meltdown here. More importantly, Sunak would never be PM. For this reason, I would not be at all surprised by a last minute U-turn for established chains.
  18. Once one realises that the 77th is a real, UK state sanctioned entity that actually exists: One can more easily see that other posters are paid by other players / states. But not on this little backwater of course. 🙂
  19. Exactly. There are five possibilities. 1. Thread one is right. 2. Thread two is right. 3. Both thread one and two are right. 4. Both thread one and two are wrong. 5. We are missing something,
  20. It's so obviously the quick and simple solution. Which makes me think maybe the people in charge will choose conflict instead.
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