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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Timm

  1. What you read in the Daily Mail one week, you will hear in the pub the next. Seriously. They are laying the groundworks for public acceptance of higher rates.
  2. Indeed. We could start by setting up the infrastructure to make and store hydrogen from renewables. And then crawl back to Iceland and say yes, we would like some of your geothermal energy after all please.
  3. Then you need to store the energy when the wind does blow. Hydrogen seems the best bet to me, then we can fire up the turbines when needed.
  4. I'll have to re-read the rest of this excellent post and reply later. I'm also going to read your Techgnosis suggestion. But yes, it is that book. You should read it. It's not a "good book", but I don't think I have been as grabbed by a book so much as when I read the first Flashman, or the first few pages of A Tale of two Cities. With regard to the Burning, it is pretty clear that 1.) they did do it. 2.) they have no idea why they did it. 3.) they were either mad when they did it, or it sent them mad. The funny thing about the KLF is they were just a pop band, but somehow they seem to be linked to everything. Once you fall into that rabbit hole (which I realise is itself just a type of magical thinking), you see it everywhere. I suppose thats because the rabbit hole self-reverential reality tunnel has already been built by others and is hiding in plain sight. The History of the World - Jeremy Deller It's interesting to see you refer to gnosticism, which of course was the driving force behind the "baddies" in the book that the KLF / JAMMS drew their initial inspiration from. Did the Banksy Shredding have a similar impact? It didn't for me. Which is odd, because even though any fule knows that Banksy is Robin Gunningham, I insist on labouring under the delusion that he is Jimmy Cauty. And then, having wandered way way off topic, the Burning drags us back to Inflation / deflation, the very topic of this thread!
  5. What is the context of that? Is it warning that if prices fall, you might not be able to remortgage?
  6. "This was getting confusing and lesser men would have given up and gone quite mad at this point. Robert Anton Wilson, instead, made one of the most important philosophical leaps of the twentieth-century, although admittedly, it is not yet generally recognised such. As well as undergoing drug-induced schizophrenia Wilson had been raised as a Catholic and had also been a communist in his earlier years. He had fully accepted these two powerful belief systems before rejecting them both. Thanks to this background, he was able to recognise what he would later call a self-reverential reality tunnel. This was a philosophy, religion or ideology that was complete and satisfying and which fully explained all the details of the world, assuming you did not question its central tenet. This central tenet was an idea - and often an appealing one - for which there was a distinct lack of evidence, such as the idea that there was a judgemental patriarchal creator God or that a property-less communal utopia would be the final stage of society. The surrounding ideology was an elaborate commentary which developed in order to support the central concept in much the same way that a pearl forms around a piece of grit in an oyster. All the theory and education that is needed to fully understand an '-ism' or religion functioned like a sophisticated defence mechanism which protected this central tenet from crashing and burning on the rocks of reality. The reason these ideological defences were so painstakingly built up over time was because, once inside a self-reverential reality tunnel, you had a model that made sense of the world." John Higgs, 2013.
  7. Yes, that is true. But they are both YoY figures, so either there is a change in profile, or the number of transactions recorded at HMRC is about to fall of a cliff. Thinking about it, it probably is the second one...
  8. This is interesting. From the report: HMRC monthly property transactions data for UK home sales increased in August 2021. UK seasonally adjusted residential transactions in August 2021 were 98,300 – up by 32% from July’s figure of 74,470 (up 28% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). The latest quarterly transactions (June-August 2021) were approximately 11% lower than the preceding three months (March 2021-May 2021). Year on year, transactions were 21% higher than August 2020 (25% higher on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). (Source: HMRC, seasonally-adjusted figures) The latest Bank of England figures show the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchases fell in August 2021 by 1% to 74,453. Year-on-year, the August figure was 15% below August 2020. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures) So the profile of the average buyer has significantly changed. Less people buying with a mortgage and a LOT more buying without (apparently) needing one. Who are these "cash" buyers?
  9. No, we don't know why. Hopefully it will be a blip and prices will come back down. If not, a lot of businesses are going to fail.
  10. According to the article you posted, Blackrock cleaned up in the foreclosure market. If Sunac's buddies want to build a housing portfolio, an HPC could be an absolute gift... 😈
  11. "Fix" So does he mean: 1. Mend , make better? 2. Cast in aspic, set in stone, keep it just as it is? 3. Rig it?
  12. This is it. The pound is falling, confidence is running out the door, inflation expectations are through the roof - they have to raise. But house prices are stabilising / starting to ease, the stamp duty put is ending, furlough has ended, bills are rising and the media is turning. If they raise, the market will crash - so they can't raise. What's a girl to do? My guess is - chin up and more lippy (talk tough and a cosmetic rate rise).
  13. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/pound-s-worst-day-in-a-year-revives-emerging-market-parallels "The developing-market parallels were first drawn amid the U.K.’s drawn-out exit from the European Union, and had largely gone away this year. Now strategists are bringing them back as the U.K. battles supply-chain chaos stemming from Brexit and the pandemic."
  14. One would have hoped so. https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19604970.fuel-panic-buying-plea-south-central-ambulance-service/
  15. All it takes now is for Gove to be seen in downing street, clutching a memo that says "5% - 10% fall in house prices". https://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/may/14/houseprices.property
  16. Evan Davis just now on R4. Used the words "Credit Crunch".
  17. This mirrors what I saw. But to qualify: Late boomers and early Gen X were generally working from home and adopting the mantra "I'll do what I can (mask, face, sanitiser, space etc) and I won't worry about the rest of it". Early (post war) boomers were often hiding at home. But the big hump of boomers in the middle were inviting us to large BBQs where we would be expected to shake hands / crowd into the kitchen and listen to them bang on about how it's just the flu.
  18. Err, was 2003 the top of the last bubble? I thought it was 2007. Plans are afoot to make sure this won't happen. When rates raise and people get repo'd - the banks will just keep their house and rent it out.
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