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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Timm

  1. Hmm. Her argument is surprisingly sophisticated. What she said was that stamp duty makes the cost of moving so high that people put up with the house they have, rather than trading up. This she was saying, reduces liquidity (she meant supply) in the market they are (not) selling in, therefore driving prices up. There is an element of truth in this, but it only really affects those sellers who are hoping to buy at a level above £250k, where duty is 3%. Along with agents fees, legal fees, financial fees and removal costs, this pushes the cost of moving close to £15,000. But as average prices approach 200k, more and more FTBs are looking at the properties that these people are selling. Or more to the point, are not selling because the cost of moving is so high. So is she right? I'm convinced she's not, but I think it's important to argue the point itself, rather than just dismiss it because it comes from her.
  2. Because a repayment mortgage has less capital outstanding at any one point than an interest only mortgage, it attracts less interest. Therefore, the increase on an average interest only mortgage will be hit roughly 30% harder than a repayment. Scroll down for some rough figures: http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2005300...7210618,00.html So buy to lets and lie to buys are going to be hurting even harder than the average repayment punter realises...
  3. Ask them two questions. Q1) Who is the UK's most successfull estate agent? A1) Jon Hunt, the owner of Foxtons. Q2) What is he doing? A2) He's selling up. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1764306.ece There is a man who knows to buy low, sell high. I bet he turns bear once the money is in the bank.
  4. Interesting. The "Pull" production system. Let's use cars as an example. Ford invented the assembly line. Their system took over the world. They build what they think people will buy, and then "Push" that product onto the customers. BMW use a "Pull" system, where each car built is built to an order, with a customer waiting. This allows a level of individuallism. This system was developed by Toyota, who recently moved into first place of car manufacturors world-wide.
  5. BoD... I wish you were my real Dad...
  6. Oh yes. I particually like photo two, where you can see the brickies taking a break, the site manager begging them to get on with some work, even looking like he might climb up and knock some heads together, while the foreman (it has to be..), pretends to stand between both camps by placing his left foot on the plank higher than his right foot, thus looking a bit official, while actually seperating the workers from the owner's representative. That is pure 1970's shop steward body language.
  7. My Grandaddy was fond of saying "from Hell, Hull and Harrogate, sell signals are delivered" But it was probably the port talking.
  8. I've got a battered old "springer" narrowboat on an idylic residential mooring one mile from Oxford city centre. As far as I can see, the boat is a depreciating asset, while the premium attatched to the mooring (held on licence) has a very loose link to the housing market. This means it has held, or even appreciated in value over the last decade. As to the future, who knows! Anyway, I may be selling this year. PM me if you're interested.
  9. I always thought that, but she got out of that "what would Chequers rent for" question pretty smoothly. Ahh bugger. I've just realised the whole show is scripted. Pity, I've always enjoyed it up to now. Edit: correct spelling.
  10. Well done Mr Facts. I'm going to print this and hold for reference. Edit: remove unwanted quote.
  11. Yup she's going to be on This Week at some point. Ohhh, will she lose her rag again? (Sorry if I missed a previous posting)
  12. I agree. That won't work. They won't even notice. The only thing that works now is direct action.
  13. Yup, Dude was being melodramatic. So am I. It's not that, it's the way he happily paints himself as approachable, and engaging with his fan-boys on what was undeniably a silly little site, but then the moment people ask him questions about anything real, he just shuts the whole thing down. I bet he would shut down the BBC, the Guardian and PMs question time if he could.
  14. Yup, good day to slide this one under the radar David! I'm not at all surprised he did this. I am surprised at how blatant it is though. And how insulting to his followers. There were a lot of people very sympathetic to him on that site who seem to be wandering about shellshocked. I doubt that anyone who used that site before, and looks at it now will ever believe that Cameron is anything other than BLiar II. Does anyone know any media types? I'd love to see someone like Paxman put him on the spot about new democracy and the annoying public etc. But I doubt anyone will notice. Apparently Labour changed their version today as well. Normally, being as cynical as I am protects me from disapointment. I knew it was all a sham, but it still makes me apoplectic with fury. :angry: :angry: :angry: See, increased smiley use = subliminated rage.
  15. I put £21 on + 0.5 at 21 because the odds looked too high. I put £7 on no change at 28ish for fun. I put £4 on any other at 120ish for fun. The plan was to lay off against + 0.5 when the odds corrected. But I got greedy and missed the chance to lay at odds of 13. I have an outstanding offer to lay £300 of my £404 profit on + 0.5, but I doubt anyone will take it. So I'm up to lose £32 when it comes in +.25 which is what I expect. Thing is, Betfair is blocked at work, so whatever happens, I won't know my result till I get home! (I did try the proxies, but they all seem blocked too) Ramble over, good luck everyone!
  16. Hmm. That is very unusual. In fact, it is so unusual that if your solicitor did not point it out when you bought, you might be able to claim he gave you bad advice. Where this percentage exists, it is normally referred to as a premium to be payed directly to the freeholder. For example, when I sell my boat, if I want to sell it on the mooring, I have to give 10% to the owner of the mooring. I could sell it off mooring, but of course I will get less. This choice does not really apply to a flat. I'm guessing there is something unusual about your flat. Is it shared ownership?
  17. I think the current bull run proves that while predicting the direction of prices is possible, predicting how long, or how fast they will move in that direction is a lot harder. What you can do is look at fundamentals such as price/earnings, rent/mortgage and income multiples/monthly repayments. While all of these will vary relative to each other, prices of property will tend to move around the centre of each axis. It's pretty clear from looking at all these indicators that prices will soon start to swing back into trend. How much will depend on local circumstances, many of which will be indicated by the measures above.
  18. Nothing outlandish to everybody here, but more bear-lite from HPC's freind at the Beeb... http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/
  19. What was it the Welsh used to do to holiday homes?
  20. I think so. After all, the PM of a coalition Government need not be the leader of the largest party...
  21. Betfair. Grrrrr. I'm seriously considering laying off against my previous backing of 0.5% at 21. But this damn workplace Surf Control won't even let me on the site. Anyone know a shortcut?
  22. Tommorrow, TB will announce that he will be standing down as Leader of the Labour Party in seven weeks time. This gives a period of time for any candidates (included but not limited to Mr Brown), to put themselves forward as a candidate to replace him. TB will also announce that he will remain Prime Minister untill the next General Election.
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