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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Timm

  1. Indeed, quite a few of us have noticed this. Here's my tuppanceworth, posted back on May the 1st: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry624139 ("Speculation about the precise timing of Mr Blair's resignation statement is now focused on Wednesday or Thursday next week" Which would be when? MPC day? Well this would certainly bury some bad news...) Good to know it's not just me...
  2. City say no. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1760210.ece "Fewer than a quarter of 61 economists polled by Reuters last week are forecasting that this week’s expected base rate rise, to a six-year high of 5.5 per cent, will be followed by another increase. Only 14 of the leading analysts questioned believe that Bank rate will be pushed still higher, to 5.75 per cent, while just one institution, ABN Amro, predicts rates will rise to 6 per cent by next spring. In addition, 28 of the polled economists believe that interest rates will be falling again, and be back to their present level, 5.25 per cent, by this winter or next spring."
  3. Yeah, good point, I'll second that.
  4. When Bulls recommend Neithers who say "don't buy", it is probably not a good time to be buying an asset as volatile as a bedsit (do you mean studio?). And certainly not in an area that has just gone up as much as Brighton. Oh hell, I'm a bear - *gets slowly off fence, strokes tie, makes eye contact* I humbly suggest you should run from this deal as if your life depended on it. Edit: replaced link.
  5. That's not a huge window in which to make a decision! Remember, most people on this site (bears) have not been right yet. However I doubt that many bulls would still say the market is not in a bubble. It is. You now know that too, or you would not have bothered signing up. But when will the bubble burst? This year, next year, last week? That is what you are really asking us, and only history can answer you. However, I turned full bear about a month ago, because I could see the media turning. Which is why you are here. You may be the first of many. You are afraid 1) You buy, market goes down. 2) You pull out, lose money you have spent on fees, prices go up, you look a tool. And you upset your Mum. You could try forgetting about making the right choice, and instead, rejecting the worst case scenario. By which I mean, would you rather look a tool and continue renting, or would you prefer to be in negative equity? Work out which would make you feel less bad, and do the other.
  6. Anyway, back to the OP... I agree with most of what you say time, but two points are worth making. Firstly, I don't know the system in the IOM, but in England, pretty much all offers through an EA are subject to survey. In fact, it is usual for the seller to take the house off the market while you organise a survey etc. If you want, you can always put it in writing. If the survey comes back bad, you re-negotiate or walk away. Second, IMHO, Leeds will be one of the first places (along with Liverpool) to see high nominal falls, especially in new flats. I was up there a month ago, being given a tour of all the regeneration south of the river by a senior Leeds planner. Very nice, in a docklands type of way. But hardly any local infrastructure (shops, schools, GPs etc). Then, off the cuff he turns round and says "of course, we don't actually know if the demand is there for all this new housing..." So I asked him what studies they had done. "Oh none really" he said. Now housing need studies ain't the most reliable things, but to go about rebuilding 25% of the town centre with high density flats without any idea if anyone wants them? Oh, he did say they seemed to be selling a lot to Irish investors! God help your friend if he buys a new flat south of the river in Leeds centre.
  7. I've been down the river. I think that's why it's quiet - people are just enjoying life outside. It's sunny and a nice breeze. England at it's best. It rather had the feel of the Edwardian era, like in those old newsreels - on the eve of war.
  8. I agree, this is the situation Merv finds himself in. But I think he's been busy covering his behind in preparation for a hike. He has explained pretty well that hiking the rates is what they have to do to comply with the brief set by Brown et al. If he gets dumped on that basis there will be howls of foul. However I'm beggining to come round to just a 25bps raise, to keep in with the city.
  9. I agree. When do you think this will happen? Edit: More up to date quote from CO.
  10. I think these are the March figures, compiled and released today. That's what it said in the headline.
  11. RB is not one man. He is an army.
  12. Yes, there are 9 independant voters, and dissent is encouraged. The idea is that knowledge and expertise is pooled. But what Merv has done is put the reputation of the MPC right on the line. If they are weak, and inflation passes the point of no control, they will not get it back without really biting interest rates and control of supply. And each individual votor knows that if that happens, every single social occasion they ever go to they will be faced with "Ooh, yes, weren't you the chap that voted for inflation in 2007?" If they take the hawk route, and it goes t1ts up, they were just doing their job. Given a choice, most individual voters will choose not to look a fool for the rest of their lives. We all know this, that's why we know it's not -.25%. The vast majority of people think it won't be No Change for the same reason. And me, I think it won't be +.25%, for the same reason. .25 is the new No Change.
  13. Going back to the document itself, here is the penultimate paragraph. The conclusion if you will: “The crucial achievement of the MPC has been to anchor inflation expectations. But as the saying goes, we are only as good as our last meeting. We fully recognise that we must keep our eye on the ball if we are to continue to anchor inflation expectations on the 2% target. I have talked tonight about some of the challenges facing the MPC over the next ten years. But there is no more important challenge than keeping inflation and inflation expectations firmly anchored on the target. I have enjoyed the opportunity to look back over the last ten years, but, as the saying continues, the only meeting that matters is the next one.” So a firm hand then, to be delivered in one go at the next meeting? (My bold)
  14. Thanks Tuffers, I just read it. Some ideas are constantly repeated throughout - maybe he read your signature? Anyway, here is my interpretation: He has a lot to say about maintaining the MPC’s reputation. He is worried that people are beginning to doubt that the MPC have a "reaction function" that reacts to the economic data in order to keep inflation on track to meet the target. He mentions many times that part of the success of the MPC in producing stable inflation has been the fact that people have expected them to do so. They have trusted the MPC to react to the data, and not to any other influence. This means that people have expected inflation to be close to the target. This is what is meant by the repetition of the phrase: "Inflation expectations have been well anchored to the target" He knows that this is now being questioned. Not just by us, but by the City, and by the informed man in the street. He knows the MPC must act with a firm hand this time, or lose the faith of the markets and the public that they will act to control inflation. As it is this very faith that goes a long way to stabilising inflation, the moment they lose this anchoring effect, they will have lost half of their power to do the job. He is informing the market that the MPC is about to get on with its job. This means a firm hand now, with the hope they can get ahead of the curve. As I’ve said before, my money is on 50bps. The language he is using actually implies a rise above even that. But that is just him re-anchoring expectations. It’s nice to see heuristics in action.
  15. * I know, that figure is just a guess. Does anyone have an easy shorthand for working out repayment mortgage monthly payments. I know it starts off your paying a bit of capital and a lot of interest, but for the sake of argument, what would it be: 1) In the first year. 2) On average, over a 25 year term. Can anyone help?
  16. That is interest only. That gives two possibilities. 1) Golden boy is paying interest only. So he does not own the house and never will. 2) Mortgage is about £200* extra, to actually pay off the capital. So you save £175 per month, while he has all the hassels of upkeep. So you made the right decision! However, if you were to buy now, you would have missed out on all the capital appreciation, would probably get a worse deal on mortgage, and would have to pay a LOT more mortgage than you are paying in rent. What I am saying is, it's a bit of a moot point who was right, you or golden boy. It's also a moot point as to what is the right thing to do now. (I say wait, but hey, I'm a bear of little brain) BUT. If you want to guarantee that golden boy made a better move than you, then go and buy a house. If the market continues to rise, you look stupid for missing out on four years of growth. If it falls, you don't have that equity to protect you.
  17. By here, do you mean Scotland? So how could you have an independant country without legal tender?
  18. I seem to remember something about Scotish Sterling not being strictly legal tender? So if they were to go it alone, would they go for the Euro? Or would they create legitimancy for Scottish Sterling by Government order ? Can someone comment on what effect creating a new fiat currency would have?
  19. When I was in the EA game, branch staff would get targeted for getting a price reduction. But anything less than 5% of the price did not count. £3k off a £275K house is not going to make a blind bit of difference to it's salability. Panic would be £25k off.
  20. I've got £21 on +.50% at 21, and hedging £4 on "Any Other" at 150. Of course, I'll be out of pocket by £25!
  21. TB is an English man of Scottish birth, education and stock, but he does not claim to be Scottish.
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