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Everything posted by Timm

  1. TBH, I think you are probably right. I made a small profit in 2007 by betting on a BOE rate rise (can't remember the month, and I closed out at a very small profit), because the market seemed to me to utterly discount what was (to me) obviously a real but very small chance of a rise, and when the market changed their mind and went into panic mode, I was able to close out. The point I'm trying to make is not that the BOE will hike in Nov, but that wholly discounting that possibility, might be somewhat unwise. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not a trader and the the very, very small sum I made was on Betfair.
  2. Now that; is interesting. I live in a West Oxfordshire cottage. It has an EPC of E. We could realistically get to D if we got rid of our loft storage and replaced it with insulation. We might manage to get to C if we rendered the stonework with insulating render under rights granted by the General Permitted Development Order 2015. To get to B, we would need to need to encapsulate the house in a semi sealed new building (for which we would never get planning permission). So, what HSBC is doing, seems on the face of it, to be encouraging buyers to favour new builds over existing / period properties? In which case, whilst it will no doubt damage the relative value of my house relative to new build houses (and whilst I think new houses should be better built), I say: Good.
  3. And am I right in thinking that you all are expecting a rise of 0.15% in December? So if they want to get ahead of the curve (do they?) they need a (smaller) hike on 04.11. TBH, I think 0.05% would do it. Happy to discuss.
  4. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=27&t=10
  5. It's a bit like when I tried to explain to people how money is created by the banks at the press of a button when somebody promises to pay back a loan. Everyone I spoke to in the real world thought I was a conspiracy loon. Then the BOE said "yeah, that's what happens" and produced a nice leaflet to explain. When I showed the same people the leaflet, they just shrugged and were like "whatever". Their world had just changed and they didn't seem to notice. I guess they didn't care.
  6. It's all kicking off! It almost sounds as if some people are expecting a hike in the base rate in Nov, rather than Dec.
  7. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/576210-the-return-of-the-bond-market-vigilantes https://www.ft.com/content/c94cee7d-4ffe-4946-a83b-b4f85026b74f https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/gas-price-explosion-jolts-uk-bond-market-2021-10-06/
  8. Actually, forget the last 3 months. From the low in July 2020, to right now, yields on the ten year have gone from 0.1% to 1.3%. I know it is from an unprecedented all time low, but a rise of 1300% in 15 months seems quite a lot? https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/charts?s=UK10YG https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds This can't be right. Even if we take the 2020 average yield of (about) 0.3% and compare it to the average 2021 yield of (about) 0.7%, wouldn't that mean that the price of the corresponding gilt had fallen by more than 50%? But nobody is talking about a collapse in the gilt market. What am I missing? Can someone who knows what they are talking about explain how I am making a fool of myself?
  9. From FreeTrader's first post on this thread: Not all links still work, but the first DMO link remains useful. The charts in the following parts are no longer relevant, but the text remains highly pertinent: The Cover ratio recently appears very strong - generally over 2.0, indicating strong demand. The Yield Tail also seems very strong - almost always well below 1.0, but this (may?) be partly a function of the extraordinarily low rates involved. I'm not sure if this relates directly to FT's graph above, and I'm not capable of providing the same level of information as he did, but historical yields can be accessed here: https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/summary?s=UK10YG Yields on the ten year gilt essentially continued to fall since this thread fell dormant in 2019, but have been rising in the last 3 months. Well, they have doubled actually. It will be interesting to see if that continues. What I don't understand is why the DMO appear (on the face of it) to be offering yields well in excess of the minimum that the market will bear? Perhaps someone more qualified than me can explain?
  10. I thought it might be worth logging the current yields as a benchmark to watch over the coming winter. UK 10-year gilt yield now 1.05% UK 20-year gilt yield now 1.3%
  11. Reading the above, I would never have guessed that you had not read Chaos, Magic and the band etc! You should... A couple of the samples they stole were from an artist called Wanda Dee. After her own career faded, she started touring as "Wanda Dee of the KLF", essentially a KLF a tribute act, and that made Cauty and Drummond most upset. The irony! "The book" was the Illuminatus! trilogy. In it, The Justified Ancients of Mummu (sic) were the agents of chaos set against the Illuminati (who wanted to Immanentize the eschaton by the means of mass murder). The Jamms also tried to defeat the system by burning money, a fact that Cauty and Drummond claimed they were unaware of, neither of them having finished the books at that point. To me, Gnosis is the ability (or objective) of literally knowing the mind of God, to be at one with the divine, whilst still alive. That would obviously be a heresy to the Catholic church, but as you say, even truth could be declared a heresy. Who knows what knowledge was hidden, denied, even forgotten? But sometimes heresies are actually dangerous. The heresy of the Free Spirit is one that has popped up again and again over the centuries and appears to have had some influence on the thoughts of Charles Manson. Then there are secular heresies. Going back to your point that sometimes they are true, (and somewhat back on topic) the heresy of credit money creation was denied by all, until the BoE suddenly produced that helpful factsheet! I think there may have been an element of darkness! Drummond quite literally thought he had sold his soul and went on a pilgrimage to get it back from the devil.
  12. What you read in the Daily Mail one week, you will hear in the pub the next. Seriously. They are laying the groundworks for public acceptance of higher rates.
  13. Indeed. We could start by setting up the infrastructure to make and store hydrogen from renewables. And then crawl back to Iceland and say yes, we would like some of your geothermal energy after all please.
  14. Then you need to store the energy when the wind does blow. Hydrogen seems the best bet to me, then we can fire up the turbines when needed.
  15. I'll have to re-read the rest of this excellent post and reply later. I'm also going to read your Techgnosis suggestion. But yes, it is that book. You should read it. It's not a "good book", but I don't think I have been as grabbed by a book so much as when I read the first Flashman, or the first few pages of A Tale of two Cities. With regard to the Burning, it is pretty clear that 1.) they did do it. 2.) they have no idea why they did it. 3.) they were either mad when they did it, or it sent them mad. The funny thing about the KLF is they were just a pop band, but somehow they seem to be linked to everything. Once you fall into that rabbit hole (which I realise is itself just a type of magical thinking), you see it everywhere. I suppose thats because the rabbit hole self-reverential reality tunnel has already been built by others and is hiding in plain sight. The History of the World - Jeremy Deller It's interesting to see you refer to gnosticism, which of course was the driving force behind the "baddies" in the book that the KLF / JAMMS drew their initial inspiration from. Did the Banksy Shredding have a similar impact? It didn't for me. Which is odd, because even though any fule knows that Banksy is Robin Gunningham, I insist on labouring under the delusion that he is Jimmy Cauty. And then, having wandered way way off topic, the Burning drags us back to Inflation / deflation, the very topic of this thread!
  16. What is the context of that? Is it warning that if prices fall, you might not be able to remortgage?
  17. "This was getting confusing and lesser men would have given up and gone quite mad at this point. Robert Anton Wilson, instead, made one of the most important philosophical leaps of the twentieth-century, although admittedly, it is not yet generally recognised such. As well as undergoing drug-induced schizophrenia Wilson had been raised as a Catholic and had also been a communist in his earlier years. He had fully accepted these two powerful belief systems before rejecting them both. Thanks to this background, he was able to recognise what he would later call a self-reverential reality tunnel. This was a philosophy, religion or ideology that was complete and satisfying and which fully explained all the details of the world, assuming you did not question its central tenet. This central tenet was an idea - and often an appealing one - for which there was a distinct lack of evidence, such as the idea that there was a judgemental patriarchal creator God or that a property-less communal utopia would be the final stage of society. The surrounding ideology was an elaborate commentary which developed in order to support the central concept in much the same way that a pearl forms around a piece of grit in an oyster. All the theory and education that is needed to fully understand an '-ism' or religion functioned like a sophisticated defence mechanism which protected this central tenet from crashing and burning on the rocks of reality. The reason these ideological defences were so painstakingly built up over time was because, once inside a self-reverential reality tunnel, you had a model that made sense of the world." John Higgs, 2013.
  18. Yes, that is true. But they are both YoY figures, so either there is a change in profile, or the number of transactions recorded at HMRC is about to fall of a cliff. Thinking about it, it probably is the second one...
  19. This is interesting. From the report: HMRC monthly property transactions data for UK home sales increased in August 2021. UK seasonally adjusted residential transactions in August 2021 were 98,300 – up by 32% from July’s figure of 74,470 (up 28% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). The latest quarterly transactions (June-August 2021) were approximately 11% lower than the preceding three months (March 2021-May 2021). Year on year, transactions were 21% higher than August 2020 (25% higher on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). (Source: HMRC, seasonally-adjusted figures) The latest Bank of England figures show the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchases fell in August 2021 by 1% to 74,453. Year-on-year, the August figure was 15% below August 2020. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures) So the profile of the average buyer has significantly changed. Less people buying with a mortgage and a LOT more buying without (apparently) needing one. Who are these "cash" buyers?
  20. No, we don't know why. Hopefully it will be a blip and prices will come back down. If not, a lot of businesses are going to fail.
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