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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Timm

  1. No problem! It might be worth mentioning that I have no expert knowledge in this field, but I work alongside people who do, and they say the same as you.
  2. I do see what you are saying. The shorter the term, the bigger the jump. The 6 month is now up 5x on a month ago, the 2 year up 4x and the 10 year about 50%. Etc. But. It was the longer dated ones that started moving first - that was what got my attention. Then, after I bumped this thread last week, the 2 year yield suddenly leapt up on Monday morning, followed later in the day by the 6m term. The yield on this very short term bond seem to have continued to rise over the week, whilst the others seem to have pretty much settled. So what I'm saying is that the shape of the yield curve has changed dramatically over the week. Any idea why that might be? (Genuine question - I have literally no idea.)
  3. Nailed it. There's not much point in continuing this thread, when the go-to reference work crops up in the second post.
  4. If at one stage s/he had a fully offset mortgage, but following a rebuild does not, I'm guessing they already own about half a house!
  5. Indeed. And rising (mortgage) rates actually put upwards pressure on RPI. What a pickle.
  6. Hang on, RPI includes mortgage interest payments. *blinks* I've got a cunning plan...
  7. This perhaps is why the BOE "will have to act" Now, what will that act be? Raise interest rates? Or just buy those pesky linkers?
  8. https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uk-september-cpi-vs-32-yy-expected-20211020
  9. From your own link (my emphasis): "Estimates of initial vaccine effectiveness in the general population " Page 7 in the link you posted. Each 100,000 is 100,000 people out of the general population, some 80% of whom have been vaccinated. Night night.
  10. Expected is apparently 4.1%. Action in the bond markets today seems to indicate it might be higher than that. Any guesses?
  11. No. The 100,000 are a slice of the whole population, of whom about 80% are vaccinated. I said this before, but you chose to edit it out, because it destroys your thesis.
  12. Yes. And quite right too. Why should the workers subsidise the economically inactive, other than to ensure they are adequately housed, fed and free? I'm getting on a bit, but I don't want to have a standard of life that is beyond that of the average worker, if the average worker is paying for it.
  13. I like that graph, but the green lines identify the wrong event. What actually caused the HPI take off are the early events identified in the red annotation. 1. Bankers let off the leash (deregulation) 2. BTL mortgages (AKA assured short-hold tenancies) 3. IO/self cert mortgages It's a bit silly to say that the Govt were really good at keeping house prices stable to incomes until BOE independence, when most of the measures keeping them high since 2008 (FLS, Term Funding, Help to Buy, Stamp Duty Cut etc) were Govt measures.
  14. The 100,000 are a slice of the whole population, of whom about 80% are vaccinated. Take 100,000 people. 80,000 are vaccinated and 20,000 are not. The vaccinated are four times as numerous, but have only twice as many cases. So the vaccines give about a 50% protection against catching it. In other news, they also give 90% protection against dying from it.
  15. Indeed, I just popped in there and it is just silly. Is there a special site that trolls go to, from which they can cut and paste their coordinated idiocy?
  16. Are you still doing this rubbish? The answer is that almost everyone over 30 is vaccinated. If 100% of over 30s were vaccinated, then 100% of cases would be in the vaccinated group. Edit: I saw the response below. It makes no sense and I'm not going to reply.
  17. Please correct me if I am wrong with the statements below: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event. The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event.
  18. It's all relative, isn't it? To most HPC'rs, these yields still represent an abnormally low return on capital. But if they persist, they represent an ongoing increase in the cost of debt that could be ruinous for some. Plus, is it a one off repricing, or a response to the expected CPI figure on Wednesday that could be repeated next month and the month after that? Are we looking at a one off event, or a change in the direction of travel? I won't nail my colours to the mast, but there is a reason that I bumped a thread last week that had been dormant since 2019. With one proviso, I will defer to others on that one - see spyguy above. The one point I would make is that mortgage rates are mad low now. Some people think that the bond markets give clues to the future. Whether that is CPI this Wednesday, BOE base rate on the 4th Nov or in Dec, or the years to come, I would not like to guess. Yes.
  19. I did wonder that this morning, but nobody else seems to think so. Plus, if it was that, wouldn't they have averaged out over the week, rather than dumping everything on one morning and nothing in the afternoon? It does look more like a general re-pricing, rather than a sudden large and unilateral divestment.
  20. They are very significant and unusual daily moves. I am very very far from being an expert, and I had been hoping someone better qualified would be along to provide some educated comment / narrative. The general consensus view seems to be that the markets have suddenly decided that inflation (and therefore interest rates) are about to be reported as much higher in the UK than expected. This could be because the expected CPI figure of 4.1 is going to come out a lot higher than forecast. The next CPI figure comes out this Wednesday, so a leak is possible. The other possibility is that somebody (or some people) needs a lot of money fast and is selling bonds in a hurry. That does not seem to be the view of most market commentators.
  21. UK 10-year gilt yield now 1.17% UK 20-year gilt yield now 1.43% And that is since Friday! Also, the 2 year is insane, up from 0.57% on Friday, to 0.73% now.
  22. BOE LIKELY TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN NOVEMBER, GOLDMAN SAYS https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/boe-likely-to-hike-rates-in-november-meeting-goldman-sachs-20211018
  23. I'm quite surprised nobody here seems to be talking about the Earthshot Prize. Well, at least since last night.
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