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Jonnybegood

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Everything posted by Jonnybegood

  1. I am not saying it can't happen, there is a good chance it may happen. What I am saying that if it did happen the consequences are unthinkable, people unable to remortgage at good rates, mass repossession (How will local councils cope), banks insolvent on a large scale. This could wipe out middle aged people who have bought a second home, moved up the ladder and overstretched, any FTB who bought the last 5 years. The banks get in a worse state and make further write downs, who then gets mortgages, they will lend to no one, they'll have no money. All they will have is 1000s of property sitting empty getting vandalised, councils getting less taxes etc. What I expect alot of people to do, either declare themselves bankrupt or get moved in to council accommodation and walk away from the property. A friend of mine who bought in 2005 edged against this risk by taking a 100% mortgage @ 4.5%, kept his £100k of savings tucked away. Told me if it goes t*ts up, then he will walk away and buy cash at the bottom from his savings in his partners name, now he is not the most intelligent of persons so it makes me think how many others are in a similar position. At 45% fall the banks will lose, not quite sure how falls will be prevented or controlled but from what I have seen so far, something drastic will be done, it will make whats already been done look like losing £50 on the 2.10 at Kempton
  2. If property was to fall on average 45% then most who bought last 5 years will hand over the keys and walk away. It makes sense, they can only chase you for the outstanding amount for 7 years. Move into rented accommodation and wait, with 45% falls it would take years for the market to recover, so many people would get burnt. I.e. Bought 2004 £120k 100% IO Mortgage Peak price £160k At bottom of market £80k There will be far worse examples then this. Exec flat bought 2005 £250k Peak £260k Bottom £100k Walk away walk away Buy another property in OH name with a large deposit - Job done If this was widespread then banks will go to the wall, it will happen to 1 bank and action will be taken. 45% will have serious consequences
  3. Observations of 2 local builders, buy 2 brand new work vans and equipment, employ 3 extra bodies, buy yourself a nice big pickup and the wife a brand new people carrier for the kids. Extend your property as much as possible and generally tart it up, spend 8 weeks of the year on holidays abroad. Buy all the high tech gadgets for the home, 50inch plasmas etc.
  4. Totally agree and thats the way it should be. The only thing a bubble creates is joking wealth for the majority, some are clever and see its a bubble and carry on as normal without getting sucked in but unfortunately their wages from doing an honest days work cannot keep up, so in this case they cannot afford to get a trades man in to do any work because their prices have increased 4 fold and in short supply, always someone up the road prepared to pay more. There are work colleagues with me who a couple of years ago would not hesitate in getting new windows fitted locally, now those same people are either postponing or looking for a far cheaper quotes, why? Even though their jobs are safe for now they cannot mew any longer or not by the amounts needed, so it will mean having to use any savings which many people having spent time building do not like to use willy nilly. Also the thought at the back of the mind that all the increased value in the property could be wiped out over the coming years. It will get to the stage like it was in the 70s where so many people will be looking for so little work that jobs will be priced upfront and not per hour / day, i.e. 6 interior doors fitted £180 not £60 per door. I remember a time when very little credit was around and nearly everything you did was paid from savings, you never saw the cars on the road like you do today, people would keep a car for years, a carpenter was happy to earn £200 for a few days work around the house. (in todays money) I am not knocking any trades person as many spend years training and alot of the work is specialised stuff, but I think reality will return and the last decade for tradesmen must be seen as a boom for themselves and things are just returning to normal. Must not forget there are many skilled workers, electricians, Carpenters, Brickys who are now on short time work with their employer and supplementing this by working on their days off, often undercutting many of the established local trades men
  5. You have to put it into context: Buy a property 2002 - £100k Pay out £15k on labour and £15k on materials to improve it Sell it in 2006 for £220k Now Buy a property in 2008 - £180k Pay out £15k on labour and £15k on materials to improve it Sell it in 2009 - £190k Sell it in 2010 - £175k Sell it in 2011 - £160k A large part of the market, the buy, do up and sell has gone, those who have property a little more cautious now about spending on improvements with job uncertainty. From the figures above you can see where people will be looking to save costs.
  6. Were out last night with friends who live in Cardiff, the first pub we went into seemed to be the local builders friday meeting point. Anyhow our table was backing onto a table with around 6 men that seemed to be in the building trade, they were talking about the large amounts of work they had been doing down poole and in particular the sandbanks area. From the talking on the table it seemed that the work dried up around September last year and they have since had to come closer and closer back to Cardiff as much of their work in Bristol and Somerset has also taken a hit recently. The topic of conversation then turned to how much they were having to lower their prices for people back in Wales, people just don't wanna know, expect it for nothing, say take it or leave it were the kind of remarks being made. These guys by the sounds of it were clearing £2000 week after paying out for petrol, accommodation etc. £104,000 a year if they were able to keep the work coming. Now I don't know if its just me, but that kind of money for putting up some walls, fitting a few kitchens, installing some bathrooms , tiling some walls seems unsustainable especially now that people are getting laid off from work left right and centre or working reduced hours. At the same time their properties are losing money MOM, their savings returns are falling and many pension funds and investments not looking to clever. But of course the builders should still get their £2000 a week. I am not knocking the fact they took the money whilst they could, if someone was happy to pay then fair enough, but at the same time those people paying were seeing their investments also increasing, often cancelling out the premium prices charged by these builders and carpenters. You only have to look in the Car Park, there was not one old van there, all 07, 08 plate vehicles, now I don't know how good these guys actually are either, I think it got to a stage that no matter hoe qualified you were there was a job for you in construction somewhere. I think its these type of people who are going to be hit very hard, the old saying you live to your earnings and by the sounds of it these guys over the past few years have had a good earning / living from what they do, the adjustment is going to be painful. From the conversations last night it looks like the way forward for many is to do cash in hand jobs locally and cut the losses that way, but they were saying that already the market is flooded with many doing the same, to many tradesman looking for too little work.
  7. Must agree the A3 is shite in the Snow, I have the 2.0TDI and the last week its been like a white knuckle ride on the roundabouts. ESP is really good in the dry but no good in the snow. Looks like my next Audi will be a quattro.
  8. Newsnight tonight - Looking at 30 years for government to pay back the debt, higher taxes, low interest rates otherwise we are stuffed (7% will be to high) Some other guy now off about British government led by example over the past 8 years compared to the US, not borrowing to much. He was smiling whilst saying it though
  9. The government throw money at the banks to get them lending to us, they throw money at the car makers to keep production going, they clearly want people to spend by reducing VAT that not all retailers have passed on. They offer protection to keep homeowners in their homes etc. Now the new financial year is almost upon us and there is talk of big rises in council tax as local councils look to keep key services efficient. Now forget all the billions and the VAT cut, why can't the government reduce council tax and instead give extra money directly to the local councils, it would be easy implement as everyone starts their council tax at the same time and reducing it by 50% would be simple to recalculate. This would make people feel they have an extra few pounds in their pocket each month to spend and another bill that people can forget about for 12 months whilst they battle to keep up with mortgage repayments. Instead they throw billions at the banks that seems to of been swallowed up into a massive black hole
  10. Will have to wait and see what Corus response is tomorrow (today), I do know that a large percentage of Corus UK workforce is of retirement age, many 55+ years old. So as for compulsory redundancies they may be avoided, again depends on where the cuts happen, could be a large number at corporate level together with office based type jobs rather than front line manufacturing.
  11. What are the chances of an eventual government buyout? Pick the company up on the cheap and re nationalise it. Like an earlier post they may get the company for less than 1bn from the banks if TATA walk away. They will end up covering the shortfall to the bank anyway, may as well get something for their aid
  12. Terrace in Cowbridge £447,500 and roadside parking. If prices have fallen 15% then it was over £500k at peak, whichever way you look at it, it's half a million for a terrace in Wales. Even if a 50% fall in property is seen then it still makes this property with a further 35% fall £290k at the bottom.
  13. Don't know about rises but the falls may be coming to an end, I was looking at prices of an auction this afternoon and property there is 40-50% below 2007 levels in many instances. A typical example, shoe box 4 bed semi approx 3 year old 2007 property 4 doors down sold £128k , auction today £65k. I am getting sh*t on my savings, so thinking put 40% down (£26k) leaves me with a £39k mortgage @ 3.5% repayment £197PM. Easily get myself £450PM rental here and that will undercut many others, with repos rising the council may be forced into renting more private properties, i'll own the property outright in 8 years if I use the rent to overpay the mortgage. Surely for many who sold out a few years ago or stood on the sidelines all along these returns combined with low IR on savings is making a good priced property look attractive and may slow up the decline in house prices.
  14. You look at what the government is doing, they are trying to prolong it all the time, they know prices are screwed but simply cannot allow them to fall overnight, each time they announce something (a beacon of hope) many feel prices will level off and refuse to lower their prices, then it comes to nothing and prices begin falling again. People genuinely believe the government are going to stop the fall and will do everything in their power to do so, the sums being announced are unprecedented. This 2 years before possession orders can be applied, help after 13 weeks its all delay tactics, in 2 years what will they do? Extend it for another 2 years? its all about staged falls. By that time they may own the majority of banks and do whatever they feel is best, write the debt off, rent the property back to the occupants?. Nobody knows, but if repossessions do not increase much over last year do not expect falls to continue, even with job losses mounting people may still be able to stay in their homes keeping the prices of other properties up. With a general election getting ever closer expect even more radical action, repeat after me house prices cannot be allowed to crash house prices cannot be allowed to crash
  15. It seems that the levels of previous lending will not return for many years if ever as trust / confidence in bonds being wrapped up and sold on has totally gone. It seems we will return to the normal banking ways of savings and lending. The end result, more sensible lending with more sensible deposits. Average house price in UK when we come out of this mess, £120k. (20% deposit £96k mortgage) I see an average wage of £28k as companies return to profit with a smaller workforce, with 3.5X income mortgages becoming the standard with 20% deposit £96k average mortgage would become affordable for the average worker.
  16. There is no safety working in the public sector, a cull here will probably be a good thing long term http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle5512651.ece
  17. Jonnybegood

    Bridgend

    Passed through Coity last week on the way to the vets and work was still well underway with the road and new stone wall. Not heard anything about it being delayed, but I would assume the number of properties in the first phase will be drastically reduced. I think its safe to say completion of the whole site will not be as originally planned.
  18. Jonnybegood

    Cardiff

    I know what your saying about Cardiff prices still holding up, but to say that the gap between Cardiff and surrounding areas is widening I do not. You mention Bridgend, an area amongst others I monitor as a yardstick, still nothing anywhere near decent for under £150k, and in Cardiff £150k can now buy some pretty good property. Just have a look at these and compare to Cardiff, some of these particular areas are nothing special either http://www.reedevans.co.uk/busdirectory/se...es&offset=0
  19. From the most recent land registry report: Swansea - Monthly change -1.9% annual change -7.2% Average price £123,009 Carmarthenshire - Monthly change -0.3% annual change -9.5% Average price £124,216 Monmouthshire - Monthly change -1.6% Annual change -6.1% Average price £186,976 Blaenau Gwent - MC -0.3% AC -8.5% AP £85,585 Welsh average - £126,181 -11.7% Not sure where they get their figures from, but its not the LR as reported
  20. I agree with many of the previous posts, the next batch of imported goods will be costing the uk consumer considerably more. I took the plunge just before christmas on a new Panasonic LCD screen, RRP - £799 I paid £450. A week later 19th Dec it had fallen to £423, now the cheapest I can find it £549. Was in Comet today and alot of the boxes for the various reduced electrical items looked a bit tatty, as if the stock has been in storage for quite some time. So I am guessing they are selling off old stock and when the new stock comes in expect the higher prices, the guy in Comet even told me that the prices lately have been very volatile and even went and checked their website price before putting the item through just in case it had fallen even further. I bought a Dolce Gusto coffee machine before christmas from Argos £48, now back up to £78 and Argos are supposedly having an end of season clearance at the moment. I know that rest assured increased their beds and mattress prices 8% from 1st January. As for the comment on wood burning stoves, I presonally do not think you will buy better than the British made models, Dunsley, Clearview, Charnwood are superb stoves far better than Dovre, Franco and Morso. On the last check many of the British made stoves were coming down in price, I think its simply now a case of buy one thing a bit more expensive buy another a bit cheaper, you win some you lose some. Overall though going forward TV prices for example I think will increase, they have bottomed.
  21. To be fair that property is not exactly suited to a family, its tiny. So no doubt those selling will be moving up, its say no chain so they may of already bought elsewhere and now need to recoup the full asking prices with a bit of negotiation, on the other hand it may be a BTL and in that case F**k um and offer no more than 50% below asking price.
  22. I used to love Swansea, from the shopping to the night life. The days of being able to drive your car right into the city, do the banking on Wind street, park up behind M&S and do a bit of shopping. David Evans , Littlewoods , C&A , Mothercare big names all gone. Many of these shops such as Halfords simply went out of town but others have disappeared forever, then Wind street loses Treasure and other smaller shops and gets replaced with bar after bar, I always partied on the Kingways until around 2002. I could see all this coming and my disbelief when SA1 was developed, can they see it, Swansea is dieing, big name retail was leaving even before this downturn, so what chance does Swansea have now. I moved to the Vale of Glamorgan not to loose the coastal feel of Swansea and now do all my shopping and nightlife in Cardiff, 4 of my friends have recently moved from Swansea to Cardiff also. I really do think that Swansea is going to be hit very badly this time around with all the support turning to Cardiff from the WAG.
  23. I think one of the bed companies will go to the wall, Bensons or Dreams. I think it will be dreams, everytime I pop in I am surrounded by staff, the store is empty. How often do people buy beds? matresses?. Lots of places doing beds/matresses, indys, argos, homebase, online. Think people pop in to try the beds and then buy elsewhere. Laura Ashley another like the pier looking a bit ropey
  24. I have since built up a small team of people who I can call upon if I need work undertaken on my house at prices that suit both parties, and now I have got to know these guys quite well the above that you list paint this picture of the poor old tradesman. I know for a fact that the guys who do work for me use their vans instead of a family car, do the weekly shopping in it, drop the kids off to school etc, so its not purely for business purposes only, so the cost of purchasing and running a van is offset by having no car. The fuel to and from jobs, well majority of builders I now know spend a few weeks at a time in the same location, at least the same location per day, as what I am now told they price the job for the day. I pay petrol to get back and forth to work as well, but I cannot claim it back from my employer and I do a 50 mile round trip daily. I am also told that often materials left over from jobs are used on other jobs, and materials removed from one house may be used on another so there are plenty of little earners on the side as well to be made. Plus the cash in hand jobs that don't go through the books. Most builders I know these days are charging around £200 / day, it was a few years back around £140 / day and at the peak around £250 / day for a good builder with a reputation. I know I have seen the labour quotes
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