Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Jonnybegood

Members
  • Posts

    905
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Jonnybegood

  1. Got a flyer through the post this morning from A & L offering me a 4 & 5 year fixed mortgage at 4.69 & 4.89% respectively. Not bad rates for 4 or 5 years peace of mind, but best of all no product fee whatsoever 75% LTV
  2. The ones to watch, iron ore and steel prices/demand. Both at the moment are on the up, still a long way off their boom levels but on the up none the less.
  3. 2007 prices cannot be seen as the correct prices, it was just at the time the market allowed and accepted those prices, things however are now different. What it does do though is set a price that houses can achieve, its no longer stuff of wet dreams its reality. How many on here would really be shocked to see oil go above $100, we have been there done that and will find it easier to accept in the future, its been achieved. 2 years time and someone tells you they've had a valuation of £100k on their property and only paid £85k for it, you turn around and say it used to sell £120k, big deal.
  4. I was told the weekend something along the same lines, within 6 months announcements will be made. The guy was quite upbeat about the longer term though, thinks the place has a future 5-10 years anyhow. Pointed out that the current worldwide economic climate has in some ways helped the uk operations, exchange rate and the levels of home trade helping the business. Some of the bigger players have been hit much harder due to the size of their operations and many are close to going to the wall, again an opportunity for increased market share could arise. Market very volatile at the moment and things are changing daily, but overall he seemed quite upbeat.
  5. Its not true though, if 5 bed detached were selling for £300k in a particular area of Newcastle at peak and now selling for £240k and there is enough people happy to pay £240k and wanting a 5 bed detached then the price will go no lower and could possibly rise. If this particular area rarely sees 5 beds on the market, then you have missed out. The only way the properties get better if prices continue to fall, however I see signs that lending etc is starting to stabilise and the sudden shock of the last 18mths starting to pass. The only property that goes right to the bottom is the stuff nobody wants, either cause its to expensive (limited market) or its cr*p (Area, crime levels, schools etc).
  6. What is the bottom of the market? I am noticing recently a number of long time HPCers returning to the market having achieved what they feel is a good price below 2007 peak prices. This is exactly the way I understand the way the market finds it's bottom, its people who buy in and actually go about setting the bottom, if enough do this then sales increase and it seems everyone is happy to buy at this particular price, and I mean everyone.....all need to be on board sellers, buyers, lenders, surveyors etc etc. There are some on here who will criticise those for buying back in, still a further 20% to go etc etc, but not everyones idea of the bottom is the same. Take a couple who STR, they may be happy to buy back in at 25% below peak if they find a property they have always wanted and rarely come onto the market, this coupled with a low IR on savings may make perfect sense now. A FTB with a nice deposit getting nothing in a savings account may be happy to snap up a property now whilst IR are pretty good and fixing for 10 years is available, No stamp duty, No more rent and builders throwing property at you with all sorts of incentives. A BTL may be happy to wait for the correction to take its full course, happy to buy anywhere as long as the price is right, looking to make a return long term in place of a pension, hoping for something 40-50% below peak and no rush to buy. Its similar to the new year sales, you get down the shop at 6am boxing day morning and there is plenty of choice at 30% off everything in store, you wait and the following week its 40% off everything in store and then you wait for the final reductions 2 weeks after the sale started at 50% off, however there is nothing there you like, all the good stuff has gone and you are left with the c*ap, this suits some people as they are not really concerned with what they buy, however some like to have a choice and prepared to pay slightly more for that privilege, rather than buy something that nobody else wants. How many missed the bottom thinking the stock market was going to go lower? Yes it may fall back but you did miss the opportunity at the time no matter what happens going forward
  7. These positive months are significant as the general population only look towards the monthly headline figure. Anyone who is buying will find it that little bit harder to knock that extra few percent off an asking price that has already been dropped 15% since first going on the market in early 2008. It signifies that the market is not in free fall, there is no collapse of the housing market but as everyone expects a correction, it prolongs and drags out the eventual bottom of 30% below peak prices. Those renting, those waiting to re enter the market, FTBs it gives many itchy feet, is it worth waiting another 18mths to get an extra 15% off, with the ever present danger of possible erosion of savings through inflation and recovery in prices. Take a FTB currently renting at £500 Per month. A £150k property today may fall a further £22k over the next 18mths, over the same period they may have to fork out £9k in rent and then when they do buy its at a higher IR canceling out the cheaper price paid completely. As most people live month to month, when buying they normally calculate their monthly outgoings, I cannot see it falling much over the next 18mths for FTBs. As for unemployment, there are too many variables such as migrants, low income (never in a position to buy a home anyway), voluntary redundancies. A large percentage of the job losses can be offset by the reduced number of new builds, the graph shows the drop since 1953 to 2003. Now we are way below the 200,000 in 2003. (133,000 08/09 - It has never fallen this low, even during the 80s, 90s crash it hardly moved from 200,000
  8. Another concern is labour to build these houses going forward, the construction industry is in freefall and everyone wants prices to fall further which is all well and good, except that no or little profit means that construction workers either get laid off or paid far less. The longer it goes on the more chance of foreign workers leaving and heading home especially with the current exchange rate, will these ever come back? Even with them we could not meet demand for housing, what will we do without them. Kids leaving school and turning their backs on the construction industry and those currently working in it are actively looking for alternative careers, there is just nothing to attract people after the 10 years of boom in the construction industry, who's taking on apprentices in the current environment, who wants to spend time training new starters. With all the points raised so far in this thread I do not see a full recovery and meeting of new housing targets in the housing market for at least 5 years, more likely 10 years. It's going to be half a decade of increased building costs with suppressed asking prices, housing developers are simply not going to build unless the margins look right, most will sit it out and hold onto their land banks.
  9. IR to stay @ below 1% for 2009 into early 2010. Then who knows..... Up but not to the levels some on here talk about. 5 - 8% is going to be the max when it happens
  10. Noticed the last month the increased number of ads from financial institutions, they went quiet for a while with B&B adverts disappearing overnight. Just this afternoon, HSBC, Natwest, Lloyds, Halifax, Alliance and Leicester to name a few, prime time these ads must cost a fortune, is this a sign that cash flow for these companies is getting better?
  11. The construction costs of housing over the next decade are going to increase to levels not previously seen, this will mainly be due to high imported general inflation driven by energy costs. There are also stricter building regs on the horizon, energy efficiency measures will really bump up construction costs along with lower construction levels as fewer companies compete knocking up the prices per Sq metre. To a certain extent this increase will be offset by cheaper land prices, but due to planning laws and the limited availability of prime land for development the prices will also remain relatively high and again as soon as the housing market recovers land will quite quickly increase in value. At the peak of the boom it was costing a major player £75k to build a decent sized 4 bed detached property, self build around £120k. As mentioned earlier the actual profits for these companies are further eroded when you factor in utilities, street lighting, roads, green areas, part exchange and other incentives. Difficult to put a price on it but weighing up the above you could probably add £10-15k per property to cover these costs making a decent sized 4 bed detached on a 200 home estate approx £90k plus the cost of the land. With the building standards of these companies going forward expected to be better than what we have been used to previously I cannot see construction being much less than £100k. Does anyone else expect to see a housing problem similar to that of oil going forward, suppressed during the recession only to bounce back to new highs due to a number of years of under investment, (lack of building) and having now picked all the easy stuff (Development of land) now the more difficult stuff is going to cost more, I mean land that is harder to develop, difficult for utilities, more roads is all that is really left to develop and machinery used to develop this land will cost more to operate due to oil and other energy costs rocketing. Will we be seeing the same level of polish builders? Will British builders expect better pay? less competition = better negotiating position. It may seem a million miles away at the moment, but soon as we turn the corner things will quickly pick up. And on top of all this, will there be funding there for these big developments? If we only get small developments then again per Sq Metre the price is going to be higher.
  12. This is what I am finding strange, on Friday I sold as there was nothing I could honestly see on the horizon that was gong to give me any gains over the coming months, more than likely heavy falls. Thats the stock market..... Then over the weekend I was out partly celebrating my recent good luck and everything seems normal in the real world, if only I had a few photos to post on here of both the car park and inside these restaurants, they were fuller than full. The guys I was out with, I was half expecting some bad news but they seem to be doing fairly well, one with a mobile phone business even saying that sales since Christmas have really moved upwards. Missus wanted some plants so called into the Garden centre on Sunday, again far from quiet and considering its far from cheap when it comes to buying garden items again it was a real shock to me. I just think that those who are still employed are seeing real bargains out there and with low IR on savings are spending a bit before inflation comes along and we all end up paying that little bit more for everything. Myself personally I have seen some good weekly deals at our local Sainsburys store as we tend to buy the more expensive type foods, meal for 2 etc. The majority of these are cheaper than a year ago and nice wines down at least 30%, we are paying less on the mortgage compared to a year ago and nearly everything I have bought in the diy stores cheaper than last year. To add to this petrol, gas & elec and we are in a better position than what we were 12-18mths ago, but all this would change should I lose my job (Well not so much now I have cashed in).
  13. I have been accused in the past of only coming on here when my stocks are doing well, so here I am to say that all my banking stocks together with my 2 insurance stocks were sold off on friday as I now firmly believe the bull run of the financial sector is coming to an end. Maybe we will see more gains this week but it was getting to risky to stay another week, I have played the market well with RBS, Lloyds, Barclays and Legal & General together returning me 350% over the past 2 months. I have looked at a number of indicators and gut feeling there is nothing left in this sector and the only way is down and hopefully another buying opportunity in a couple months time. The third or fourth whatever wave of bad news is on its way. Apart from banking I am seeing signs of improvement in other sectors, quite surprised out with a friend the weekend who owns 8 mobile phone shops that have seen a big uptake in new contract phones the past couple of months, I would of thought the mobile phone be the first to go if your really being pressed financially. From other observations, restaurants (and not the cheap ones) very full the weekend, this idea of people eating at home more does not seem to be happening, 2 restaurants close to where I live had reduced their entire menu by 15% just after Christmas in a proactive move, talking to the owner they are now pulling the offer as the place is doing so well and so are other restaurants with no discounts. I am starting to think that things are different this time, don't know why and simply do not have a logical answer but people are just carrying on regardless even with media news everyday being quite bleak, what will happen when they start to report a recovery is well underway? I think we have had it so good for so long, especially teenagers who have known no different that the thought of not being able to go out and buy that latest mobile or ipod is unthinkable, not to be able to have that mid week coffee in starbucks etc. What I am starting to see and its surprising how much can be saved is people switching energy providers, insurance companies, mobile providers, broadband providers. Everyone I speak to is switching, even those who have been with the same provider for years are looking elsewhere, a guy at work was saying last week how he has already saved £1200 in the last 6 months by switching. Interesting times..........
  14. There is a balance to be had, I don't want to see prices returning to stupid levels but also do not want to see much more than 30% falls, at least at that level those who bought in the last 5 years are not going to be stung that badly, remember many of these who bought were decent people just going about their lives not worrying about when a crash may come or hoping to profit and sell on within 12mths, these are people wanting a nice family home not some rented half way house. Many have probably saved hard, paid taxes and trying to do the best for their family, large falls would make moving or re mortgages at good rates very difficult on family finances. Yes BTL can go to the wall and 30% falls will hopefully show many that property is not a one way ticket to wealth, but with 30% falls many doors should be opened to FTBs and those looking to re enter the market, especially when you look at the historically low IRs being offered. People on here should stop moaning, prices are falling and if you miss the boat at 30% below peak just like many missed the Barclays shares buying opportunity then it works both ways, greed wanting to get more for your money, does not always work.
  15. I think their report is one of the most open and honest I have seen, with a realistic prediction. On the BBC website they are quoting falls of 28% from peak with a number of years of very slow HPI, sounds quite reasonable, we have had some positive market data the last couple of months and the stock market is staying above 4000 with a bit more stability, that I think is the key word stability. It just seems that all the bad news and write downs are all priced in and now the air has cleared many financial institutions are seeing their books are a bit healthier than they first thought. By the end of this year we should see the worst of the job losses out of the way, with a further 2-3 years of public sector job cuts, what must be remembered is large percentage of these job cuts have been through natural wastage, migrant workers and even contract jobs that have pulled the plug early. Its been mentioned on here before that many people in this country have never been in a position to buy their own home, these are normally the kinds of people who get hit worst when the job cull comes along, so buying power of homeowners is not reduced by the amount the media like people to think. During our last large round of job cuts in the company in 1996, out of the 2320 losing their jobs only 600 went through compulsory and that made the local headlines for weeks, it was only when you scratched the surface you could see that only a quarter were forced out. Add to all this the billions pumped into the system that takes months to take affect, the historic low IR (that will stay low at least till the next election), massive amounts of debt being cleared by households daily due to the small savings rates and ability to overpay on mortgages, the attractions of bricks and mortar over fiat money and the impact of inflation its quite hard to see where the 50% falls across the board that some have predicted here will come from. We have seen the low point for the British financial institutions, manufacturing still in decline but slowing and could turn by the end of year helped along by the exchange rate. Like I say job losses still to bottom and that is why a further 10-12% decline in house prices as they predict sounds quite reasonable. Only bit I disagree with is the 2013 date, I think we are looking at 5-10 years of very little HPI from the bottom of this market.
  16. Some big changes by county MOM. Volume of sales are low and big swings to be expected, but some do stand out. Last month Bridgend had the largest annual fall at -19.7% and Vale of Glamorgan the smallest at -4.4%. A month later and the annual fall in Bridgend stands at -17.8% and Vale of Glamorgan at -8.8%. MOM Bridgend and Carmarthenshire have basically swapped falls with Blaenau Gwent. Falls in Swansea, Cardiff and Neath Port Talbot seem to be accelerating and a very big swing in the Vale of Glamorgan. Feb Swansea -1.1% Cardiff -1.1% Neath Port Talbot -1.9% Bridgend -3.2% Vale Glamorgan 0 Caerphilly -1.1% Blaenau Gwent +3.3% Carmarthenshire -3.6% March Swansea -1.6% Cardiff -2.1% Neath Port Talbot -5.5% Bridgend +0.3% Vale Glamorgan -5.9% Caerphilly -2.3% Blaenau Gwent -4.0% Carmarthenshire +0.8% How do others read into these figures? For me I think bottom prices for the larger towns such as Bridgend and Carmarthen is going to be around £100k average (Currently £115k) with a similar bottoming in Swansea with Cardiff 15% higher at around £115k. Further falls of 10% on average to be expected across all counties before this lot is over.
  17. Pity she was not a Taxpayer, at least then here defence could be that she did in fact own a piece of the equipment. The total bailout to date of RBS divided by each individual taxpayer would surely of covered her stake.
  18. Problem I see with it, you buy at £200k property falls 50% then you would not pay your mortgage and buy a £100k property for cash instead leaving the lender with a £100k shortfall. It would be to easy to walk away On the other hand it would stop 100% loans as the risk is all with the lender........
  19. Nationwide site back up and running. Worry over....... Nothing more to see move along
  20. This is the Yorkshires reaction to the downgrade.. http://ybs.co.uk/your_society/latest_news.html I have to agree that moody's have been made to look a bunch of fools over the Icelandic affair and maybe now they have swayed to far the other way
  21. I was reading this post of yours and it was almost an exact copy of my experience Friday evening. I was also in a local curry house and the same as you 3 guys in there waiting for their take away who knew each other but were not together were talking about conditions locally. They all seemed to be owners of companies involved in the various stages of the building trade, i.e 1 of them was the builder whilst another ground clearance. Painting a very bleak picture, last 4 months been dead, building sites on hold, flow of cash very slow. Even those able to borrow money don't want to and everyone seems to be paying off outstanding debt without taking anything new on. Could feel the worried tone in their voices, one said that a few jobs have popped up this month and the other 2 both said thats good sign, any bit of good news was jumped on. One was asked how profits are looking this year and he said way down on last year, shaking his head. Then one of the others tried to cheer him up by saying but last year you probably did far better than previously, it did little though to change his feelings. Between the wife and himself they have probably blown whatever profits they made in the good times and now have nothing to show in the bad times. The worrying thing these guys were all 40 plus, not johnny come lately, but established business owners who have seen downturns before.
  22. Personally it would not be a reason for me to buy, but others maybe so. If you look at past booms and bust cycles there would however be a good chance that before you complete the term of your mortgage we will of entered another boom. As for 25% IR, they have never been that high before, in fact no where near so odds of them getting over 20% seem very remote, if they did it would be for a very very short time just like 15% IR. And there is always the option to fix, as we have seen recently IR movement do not affect homeowners like they once did. Due mainly to the different products that people are locked into
  23. What is so wrong with the S-Line, I have owned 2 in the last 5 years. Even though the ride is a bit stiff due to the hardened suspension and 18 inch wheels they seem to tick all the boxes for me. An A3 S-Line first now own an A4 Avant S-Line. At the time I could only get the 170BHP engine in the S-Line, that may since have change.
  24. The thread has lost its way a bit, with talk of different makes and models. The simple point I was trying to make that shocked me was that people even when they know there is a 100% chance of losing quite a lot of money still go ahead and buy. Even when they already have a perfectly good vehicle they go out and buy another, so its not an essential purchase. Just because houses are falling 1 - 2% MOM to many its still not an issue, especially now when the stats show an 18% fall YOY and most commentators (Even renowned bears) are saying peak to trough of 35% some house can look attractive and you feel you got a bargain. Many potential home buyers I am sure will look at this and think a possible further fall of 17% is not out of the question but unlike vehicles one day that 17% loss will be regained and either way its only when I sell it will be realised. I am spreading the cost over 25 years, I got a good low IR and can afford it. Maybe in 15 years time the same house will be worth 3x its current value and I will be looking to downsize and pay off the remaining 10 years off the mortgage. Those on the forum who in the grand scheme of things are in a very small minority would disagree, however this is really how it looks and feels out there in reality.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.