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Jonnybegood

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  1. I don't know if I fully understand your graph but I assume your saying that by 2020 prices will be around £90,000 in real terms and around £110,000 nominal (50% real fall and almost 40% nominal). Well look at IR data over the same period, We have never had such a long period of low IR (15 years ago was the last time rates hit 8%). Except for a short period in the late 70s rates have always been above 8% but for large parts 10% +. Now IR are rising but I don't think it will be a trend over the longer (4+ years) term, 8% they will peak. I can then see rates being kept around the 6% mark for the longer period and when looking at the rates below is still a low IR in comparison. So when talking about affordability, A key driver in any HPI highish prices may be more sustainable than many think. Take 1988 on your graph, Nominal price was £45,000 at 10.5% IR = £429pm Repayment mortgage rising to 15% IR by 1989 = £580pm. and most were on a SVR which was probably far higher than 15% Just for comparison inflation adjusted repayments £90,000 = £858pm @10.5% or £1160pm @ 15% If inflation continues to run at 2.5% on average (In the current climate is about right) for the next 13 years as per your graph that alone will bring an average prices house back to £127,000 in real terms (almost 30% real fall) with no nominal falls, Almost in line with the real falls in the last crash but over a longer period. So falls would be the same but the time it takes to bottom out and then recover will be far longer than all previous crashes. Plus there have been alot of changes since the last crashes, mass immigration being just one of them Thu, 11 Jan 2007 5.25 Thu, 09 Nov 2006 5.00 Thu, 03 Aug 2006 4.75 Thu, 04 Aug 2005 4.50 Thu, 05 Aug 2004 4.75 Thu, 10 Jun 2004 4.50 Thu, 06 May 2004 4.25 Thu, 05 Feb 2004 4.00 Thu, 06 Nov 2003 3.75 Thu, 10 Jul 2003 3.50 Thu, 06 Feb 2003 3.75 Thu, 08 Nov 2001 4.00 Thu, 04 Oct 2001 4.50 Tue, 18 Sep 2001 4.75 Thu, 02 Aug 2001 5.00 Thu, 10 May 2001 5.25 Thu, 05 Apr 2001 5.50 Thu, 08 Feb 2001 5.75 Thu, 10 Feb 2000 6.00 Thu, 13 Jan 2000 5.75 Thu, 04 Nov 1999 5.50 Wed, 08 Sep 1999 5.25 Thu, 10 Jun 1999 5.00 Thu, 08 Apr 1999 5.25 Thu, 04 Feb 1999 5.50 Thu, 07 Jan 1999 6.00 Thu, 10 Dec 1998 6.25 Thu, 05 Nov 1998 6.75 Thu, 08 Oct 1998 7.25 Thu, 04 Jun 1998 7.50 Thu, 06 Nov 1997 7.25 Thu, 07 Aug 1997 7.00 Thu, 10 Jul 1997 6.75 Fri, 06 Jun 1997 6.50 Tue, 06 May 1997 6.25 Wed, 30 Oct 1996 5.94 Thu, 06 Jun 1996 5.69 Fri, 08 Mar 1996 5.94 Thu, 18 Jan 1996 6.13 Wed, 13 Dec 1995 6.38 Thu, 02 Feb 1995 6.63 Wed, 07 Dec 1994 6.13 Mon, 12 Sep 1994 5.63 Tue, 08 Feb 1994 5.13 Tue, 23 Nov 1993 5.38 Tue, 26 Jan 1993 5.88 Fri, 13 Nov 1992 6.88 Fri, 16 Oct 1992 7.88 Tue, 22 Sep 1992 8.88 Tue, 05 May 1992 9.88 Wed, 04 Sep 1991 10.38 Fri, 12 Jul 1991 10.88 Fri, 24 May 1991 11.38 Fri, 12 Apr 1991 11.88 Fri, 22 Mar 1991 12.38 Wed, 27 Feb 1991 12.88 Wed, 13 Feb 1991 13.38 Mon, 08 Oct 1990 13.88 Fri, 06 Oct 1989 14.88 Fri, 08 Sep 1989 13.75 Mon, 04 Sep 1989 13.88 Thu, 31 Aug 1989 13.84 Thu, 25 May 1989 13.75 Fri, 25 Nov 1988 12.88 Thu, 25 Aug 1988 11.88 Mon, 08 Aug 1988 10.88 Thu, 21 Jul 1988 10.38 Thu, 07 Jul 1988 9.88 Fri, 24 Jun 1988 8.88 Fri, 10 Jun 1988 8.38 Fri, 03 Jun 1988 7.88 Tue, 17 May 1988 7.38 Fri, 08 Apr 1988 7.88 Thu, 17 Mar 1988 8.38 Mon, 01 Feb 1988 8.88 Thu, 03 Dec 1987 8.38 Wed, 04 Nov 1987 8.88 Fri, 23 Oct 1987 9.38 Thu, 06 Aug 1987 9.88 Fri, 08 May 1987 8.88 Tue, 28 Apr 1987 9.38 Wed, 18 Mar 1987 9.88 Mon, 09 Mar 1987 10.38 Wed, 15 Oct 1986 10.88 Fri, 23 May 1986 9.88 Fri, 18 Apr 1986 10.38 Fri, 11 Apr 1986 10.88 Wed, 19 Mar 1986 11.38 Wed, 15 Jan 1986 12.38 Fri, 26 Jul 1985 11.38 Thu, 11 Jul 1985 11.88 Fri, 19 Apr 1985 12.38 Thu, 28 Mar 1985 12.88 Wed, 20 Mar 1985 13.38 Mon, 28 Jan 1985 13.88 Mon, 14 Jan 1985 11.88 Fri, 23 Nov 1984 9.50 Mon, 19 Nov 1984 9.75 Mon, 05 Nov 1984 10.00 Fri, 17 Aug 1984 10.50 Thu, 16 Aug 1984 10.75 Thu, 09 Aug 1984 11.00 Wed, 08 Aug 1984 11.50 Wed, 11 Jul 1984 12.00 Fri, 06 Jul 1984 10.00 Fri, 29 Jun 1984 8.88 Thu, 10 May 1984 9.06 Thu, 22 Mar 1984 8.56 Wed, 21 Mar 1984 8.05 Wed, 14 Mar 1984 8.56 Wed, 07 Mar 1984 8.81 Mon, 03 Oct 1983 9.06 Wed, 10 Aug 1983 9.56 Tue, 09 Aug 1983 9.44 Tue, 14 Jun 1983 9.56 Mon, 13 Jun 1983 9.81 Thu, 14 Apr 1983 10.06 Wed, 13 Apr 1983 10.31 Tue, 15 Mar 1983 10.56 Wed, 12 Jan 1983 11.00 Fri, 26 Nov 1982 10.00 Tue, 02 Nov 1982 9.13 Mon, 01 Nov 1982 9.38 Tue, 12 Oct 1982 9.63 Thu, 30 Sep 1982 10.13 Wed, 29 Sep 1982 10.25 Tue, 28 Sep 1982 10.38 Mon, 27 Sep 1982 10.50 Fri, 27 Aug 1982 10.63 Thu, 26 Aug 1982 10.88 Wed, 25 Aug 1982 11.00 Tue, 24 Aug 1982 11.13 Tue, 17 Aug 1982 11.25 Mon, 16 Aug 1982 11.38 Wed, 04 Aug 1982 11.50 Mon, 02 Aug 1982 11.56 Fri, 30 Jul 1982 11.63 Thu, 29 Jul 1982 11.75 Wed, 28 Jul 1982 11.81 Mon, 26 Jul 1982 11.94 Wed, 21 Jul 1982 12.06 Tue, 13 Jul 1982 12.13 Mon, 12 Jul 1982 12.25 Fri, 09 Jul 1982 12.50 Tue, 08 Jun 1982 12.63 Tue, 20 Apr 1982 13.13 Mon, 19 Apr 1982 13.00 Fri, 16 Apr 1982 13.13 Wed, 10 Mar 1982 13.25 Thu, 25 Feb 1982 13.63 Mon, 22 Feb 1982 13.81 Fri, 22 Jan 1982 13.88 Thu, 21 Jan 1982 14.00 Wed, 20 Jan 1982 14.13 Tue, 19 Jan 1982 14.25 Mon, 18 Jan 1982 14.31 Fri, 04 Dec 1981 14.38 Wed, 25 Nov 1981 14.56 Mon, 09 Nov 1981 14.63 Fri, 06 Nov 1981 15.06 Wed, 28 Oct 1981 15.13 Mon, 12 Oct 1981 15.00 Tue, 15 Sep 1981 14.00 Tue, 25 Aug 1981 12.69 Wed, 11 Mar 1981 12.00 Tue, 25 Nov 1980 14.00 Thu, 03 Jul 1980 16.00 Thu, 15 Nov 1979 17.00 Wed, 13 Jun 1979 14.00 Thu, 05 Apr 1979 12.00 Thu, 01 Mar 1979 13.00 Thu, 08 Feb 1979 14.00 Thu, 09 Nov 1978 12.50 Thu, 08 Jun 1978 10.00 Mon, 15 May 1978 9.00 Mon, 08 May 1978 8.75 Wed, 12 Apr 1978 7.50 Mon, 09 Jan 1978 6.50 Mon, 28 Nov 1977 7.00 Mon, 17 Oct 1977 5.00 Mon, 10 Oct 1977 5.50 Mon, 19 Sep 1977 6.00 Mon, 12 Sep 1977 6.50 Mon, 15 Aug 1977 7.00 Mon, 08 Aug 1977 7.50 Mon, 16 May 1977 8.00 Mon, 02 May 1977 8.25 Mon, 25 Apr 1977 8.75 Mon, 18 Apr 1977 9.00 Tue, 12 Apr 1977 9.25 Thu, 31 Mar 1977 9.50 Mon, 21 Mar 1977 10.50 Thu, 10 Mar 1977 11.00 Thu, 03 Feb 1977 12.00 Mon, 31 Jan 1977 12.25 Mon, 24 Jan 1977 13.25 Mon, 10 Jan 1977 14.00 Wed, 29 Dec 1976 14.25 Mon, 20 Dec 1976 14.50 Mon, 22 Nov 1976 14.75 Thu, 07 Oct 1976 15.00 Mon, 13 Sep 1976 13.00 Mon, 24 May 1976 11.50 Mon, 26 Apr 1976 10.50 Mon, 08 Mar 1976 9.00 Mon, 01 Mar 1976 9.25 Mon, 09 Feb 1976 9.50 Mon, 02 Feb 1976 10.00 Mon, 26 Jan 1976 10.50 Mon, 19 Jan 1976 10.75 Mon, 05 Jan 1976 11.00 Mon, 29 Dec 1975 11.25 Mon, 01 Dec 1975 11.50 Mon, 17 Nov 1975 11.75 Mon, 06 Oct 1975 12.00 Mon, 28 Jul 1975 11.00 Mon, 05 May 1975 10.00 Mon, 21 Apr 1975 9.75 Mon, 24 Mar 1975 10.00 Mon, 10 Mar 1975 10.25 Mon, 17 Feb 1975 10.50 Mon, 10 Feb 1975 10.75 Mon, 27 Jan 1975 11.00 Mon, 20 Jan 1975 11.25
  2. Firstly when you have parents with children on the front line I think Iraq is very important and to be honest HPI and inflation for them is probably very low in their thoughts. Problem with this board is that many are allowing HPI / House crash to control their lives, When around them in the wider world there are more serious issues like the loss of life and everyday body bags of British troops being flown home. I have now received 4-5 election posters through the post and not one of the parties mentions housing, its Iraq , NHS , Pensions , Crime and policing , Immigration How big an issue in the whole scheme of things is HPI, I am beginning to wonder. Surely it would be a good election winner, or would it?
  3. You still have to be realistic with any falls and I think this is where many get carried away. Popular belief is that everyone is in debt and all money is borrowed, This is far from the truth. There are still many who have large amounts of money in circulation and so falls in house prices will be controlled by many of these people who will continue buying as normal just at a lower price, It must be remembered that even though prices of houses are falling it is very rare for building materials to fall, in fact higher inflation will increase building materials and labour. A bit of reality is going to come back to the market but don't expect the fairy tale
  4. Prices need to fall 15% nominal over the next 4 years to come back in line with 5% (2.5% growth above inflation at approx 2.5% per annum) growth per annum since around 1992
  5. Only concern I have with banning (If true) the bulls on the site and more people get wind of it is the site may be seen as being all bear (Hence the name) and many who come here for open debate and to get a true feel for the market may be put off and leave with the wrong thoughts / Advice if one sided. This I think will be a sad day and soon see the decline of the site which after all these years is now finding more publicity than ever before.
  6. I prefer this graph if just talking about none adjusted nominal values, The only time that prices have fallen was during the last crash, by around 15%.
  7. I did a little calculation on here recently having found some property valuations spanning 14 years (1992 , 1995 , 2001 , 2006) all were in line accept for the 2006 valuation which proved that housing was around 30% overvalued. However many will argue that property was undervalued before 2001 at that point and to a degree I tend to agree in comparison to other countries at that time. I have more recently gone back and looked at the IRs at the time of the valuations and IR were on average 7%. Combine this with the flexibility of mortgages these days and it is not hard to see why property values have increased by the amounts they have, it basically comes down to affordability and there is not a great difference between now and back then. But as already mentioned the amount is larger and so will take longer to pay off if wishing to pay off earlier than the normal 25 years and should IR increase to these levels again then we may see many casualties. Longer term if we do get IR around 7-8% then prices do need to fall around 15% (Nominal) over the next 4 years to come back in line with trend of steady property inflation the other option is pretty much stagnation for the next 6 years and let inflation do the work. Or we have an almighty crash within a short period of time and prices drop around 30% nominal, But I do not see a trigger powerful enough to create this scenario and feel a 4-5 year decline the most probable. Forgot to mention had a statement this morning from national savings direct ISA - The interest being paid is Sh** at the moment its no wonder many are turning to property, As IR rise this may start to change
  8. The longer it takes for a crash to happen the less painful it will be, Take someone who bought 4 years ago in 2003 for £100,000 that property today in the right location etc could be worth £140,000 a 20% nominal fall over 4 years and the price is back to £112,000.by 2011 Now if the crash begins in 2009 with the same house valued at £155,000 and bottoms out in 2013 some 4 years later at around £130,000 there is less nominal loss and less chance of neg equity along the way. So anyone who bought this year or last will be hoping for further HPI over the next 2-3 years at least to reduce chances of neg equity if a crash was to come. Many on this forum predicted cashes in 2003, But looking back those who bought then have a good chance of avoiding neg equity should anything happening, Property type and location are also key in the falls etc. Anyway who said 12mths?
  9. This company has done its homework for sure, They have always been in the local rag but there now seems to be more than ever, its got to be making them money otherwise they would all be out of business. Firstly they know debt is massive and somebody may want to sell up to bail out, But why would they at 25% less than a valuation, Surely most would sample the market first to see what kind of response they get, Say they get none then they may be tempted to take a 25% loss on the property and sell quickly. But this cannot be big business surely!!! The profits cannot be that high. Even at 25% less than market value most buyers would be looking for a 10% discount anyway so in reality they are getting the property for around 15% less than anyone else off the street. In my area they are offering up to 90% market value. These guys must feel the market is in for a short period of stagnation and strike whilst people are beginning to feel twitchy and then profit when the market picks up, one thing for sure they are not predicting a crash.
  10. I don't agree the title as everyones circumstances are different, But what I will say is that over the longer term if the bubble continues or not buying is the better option than renting otherwise come 40 years you will still be renting. Here is a property currently on Rightmove that is For Sale and also for Let. I found this by pure luck To Let @ £525pm http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-611...2&tr_t=rent To Buy @ £159.950 with negotiations to a possible £150,000 (I have heard of property going for 10% under asking price in many parts of the country) = £838pm Repayment or £618pm IO over 25 years @ 5.5% with 10% deposit http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-638...=6&tr_t=buy Buying you would need to pay stamp duty £1500, Mortgage & Legal fees of approx £1000 but that is a one off payment Now looking at other properties in the area £525pm is fairly low in comparison as it looks to be covering just the mortgage before the house is sold, Most 3 bed semis are fetching £600pm having looked through rightmove. As it stands there is £303 difference between a repayment mortgage and renting and £93 difference between IO. So there is not quite a gap as you stated above, Yes a mortgage is still over £300 more per month but on a fixed rate for the term of the mortgage that would remain the same whereas 5 , 10 ,15 years down the road the rent would be far more. Plus renting there would be no property at the end and any gains made on that property would not of been made if it was being rented. House value: 159K Rent: £525 = £157,000 No house No HPI No Neg Equity IO Mortgage @ 5.5% : £618 = £185,400 No House Poss neg equity but gains from HPI (Over 25 years you will see gains) Repayment Mortgage @ 5.5% : £838 = £251,400 = House , Poss neg equity, HPI (Going on past data probably worth 4-5 x its current value today) Who pays the rent when you retire? In your personal situation at the moment £720 a month does sound reasonable for the property value you are renting, However if that contract ended and the landlord wanted you out and similar property was £1000pm the gap suddenly begins to close. Finally someone who bought IO 5-6 years ago and sold this year would be in a far better position than someone who had rented over the same period, Will we be saying the same in 10 years time.
  11. Tightening of credit now is going to save the market in the long term, However I still feel it should of been done 2 years ago and maybe its to little to late.
  12. What happens to current rentals when these guys bail out at the sniff of a correction but the demand for rental properties remains the same or even increases with the vast number of migrants constantly coming into the uk. Supply / Demand decreasing BTL increasing demand for rentals, Increasing IR meaning homeowners default and sell up and head for rental property increasing demand further for BTL properties (Or at least decent property at the right price). At the same time property prices are not coming down that quickly maybe -5% YOY but higher IR mean affordability is still an issue for many, I can foresee a shortage of rental properties for a short period of maybe 2 years within the next year or so, leading to a demand for higher rentals for landlords.
  13. I think that sums up why prices in the uk will never fall back to what they once were, We may get short term falls due to increasing IR but overall higher prices are here to stay. The reason? I know immigration has been mentioned on a number of occasion with regards to HPI, But there is a definate long term BTL market in the uk emerging as many other EU countries tend to prefer renting than buying, its their way of life. And most of these renters are heading for the uk, The buying FTB is being replaced by the willing east european renter which in turn is leading to a sustained BTL market.
  14. Looking at data for the last 20 years, 8% is still pretty high. Not seen anything near that since Oct 1992 Date Changed Rate Thu, 11 Jan 2007 5.25 Thu, 09 Nov 2006 5.00 Thu, 03 Aug 2006 4.75 Thu, 04 Aug 2005 4.50 Thu, 05 Aug 2004 4.75 Thu, 10 Jun 2004 4.50 Thu, 06 May 2004 4.25 Thu, 05 Feb 2004 4.00 Thu, 06 Nov 2003 3.75 Thu, 10 Jul 2003 3.50 Thu, 06 Feb 2003 3.75 Thu, 08 Nov 2001 4.00 Thu, 04 Oct 2001 4.50 Tue, 18 Sep 2001 4.75 Thu, 02 Aug 2001 5.00 Thu, 10 May 2001 5.25 Thu, 05 Apr 2001 5.50 Thu, 08 Feb 2001 5.75 Thu, 10 Feb 2000 6.00 Thu, 13 Jan 2000 5.75 Thu, 04 Nov 1999 5.50 Wed, 08 Sep 1999 5.25 Thu, 10 Jun 1999 5.00 Thu, 08 Apr 1999 5.25 Thu, 04 Feb 1999 5.50 Thu, 07 Jan 1999 6.00 Thu, 10 Dec 1998 6.25 Thu, 05 Nov 1998 6.75 Thu, 08 Oct 1998 7.25 Thu, 04 Jun 1998 7.50 Thu, 06 Nov 1997 7.25 Thu, 07 Aug 1997 7.00 Thu, 10 Jul 1997 6.75 Fri, 06 Jun 1997 6.50 Tue, 06 May 1997 6.25 Wed, 30 Oct 1996 5.94 Thu, 06 Jun 1996 5.69 Fri, 08 Mar 1996 5.94 Thu, 18 Jan 1996 6.13 Wed, 13 Dec 1995 6.38 Thu, 02 Feb 1995 6.63 Wed, 07 Dec 1994 6.13 Mon, 12 Sep 1994 5.63 Tue, 08 Feb 1994 5.13 Tue, 23 Nov 1993 5.38 Tue, 26 Jan 1993 5.88 Fri, 13 Nov 1992 6.88 Fri, 16 Oct 1992 7.88 Tue, 22 Sep 1992 8.88 Tue, 05 May 1992 9.88 Wed, 04 Sep 1991 10.38 Fri, 12 Jul 1991 10.88 Fri, 24 May 1991 11.38 Fri, 12 Apr 1991 11.88 Fri, 22 Mar 1991 12.38 Wed, 27 Feb 1991 12.88 Wed, 13 Feb 1991 13.38 Mon, 08 Oct 1990 13.88 Fri, 06 Oct 1989 14.88 Fri, 08 Sep 1989 13.75 Mon, 04 Sep 1989 13.88 Thu, 31 Aug 1989 13.84 Thu, 25 May 1989 13.75 Fri, 25 Nov 1988 12.88 Thu, 25 Aug 1988 11.88 Mon, 08 Aug 1988 10.88 Thu, 21 Jul 1988 10.38 Thu, 07 Jul 1988 9.88 Fri, 24 Jun 1988 8.88 Fri, 10 Jun 1988 8.38 Fri, 03 Jun 1988 7.88 Tue, 17 May 1988 7.38 Fri, 08 Apr 1988 7.88 Thu, 17 Mar 1988 8.38 Mon, 01 Feb 1988 8.88 Thu, 03 Dec 1987 8.38 Wed, 04 Nov 1987 8.88 Fri, 23 Oct 1987 9.38 Thu, 06 Aug 1987 9.88 Fri, 08 May 1987 8.88 Tue, 28 Apr 1987 9.38 Wed, 18 Mar 1987 9.88 Mon, 09 Mar 1987 10.38
  15. If BTLs have increased 10 fold over past few years but rental payments are still fairly stagnant i.e Its the best time to negotiate a good deal supply/demand, what will happen when many of these BTLers make an exit and the number of BTLs decrease but demand for them remain the same.
  16. If they are going ahead with it at least they are using an IO mortgage the way it should be used , Short term. There is nothing wrong with IO as long as you take control and work out the implications of IRs doubling, but fixing long term should remove this worry for them. Its their choice let them get on with it.
  17. Perhaps it came over wrong, What I was trying to say was that at the moment we have IR of 5.25% FACT. All this cheering when rates increase is no good to anyone including FTBs Now for a fall of AT MOST 25% IR would need to climb to 8%, But maybe they may go beyond this. At those kind of rates you would not want to fix your mortgage even if you could, So many would stick to SVR or if possible discount deals. This would mean that many who then bought would be at the mercy of each monthly IR decision to see if they will be paying more or less, it would not take long for them to be paying more than someone paying 5.25% at present or even fixed a deal at 5.5% for 25 years for example. Lenders would want 20% deposits min and proof of earnings would be checked more thoroughly. This would be a good thing personally but not for many FTBs. If you look at this graph you will see only once have nominal values dropped, this was an average 14% fall with IR reaching 15%. So really speaking an 8% IR should only bring about 10% fall but with the growth over the past few years and the overall levels of debt I would stick my neck out and say an 8% IR would bring about falls upto 25% nominal. Then do you think we will ever see 8% IR.? Its the nominal fall rather than real falls that will matter to most, Especially FTBs when it comes down to affordability and whats left at the end of each month to spend.
  18. I cannot see why many celebrate IR rises, Especially FTB as the nominal falls required on current house prices to offset IR rises makes monthly payments almost the same as current levels. To really see sharp falls in prices around 8% IR are what we need to see, Then I calculate a fall of around 25% nominal values will be seen across the board. So take your typical £100,000 mortgage at 5.25% = £606pm (Fixed) £75,000 at 8% = £585 (Variable) £21pm More in your pocket But multiplies would be around 3-4X earning max, 20% min deposit and the flexibility would not be there, almost all fixed rate deals would be scrapped and SVR would be far higher than an 8% base rate £25,000 less debt, But uncertain repayments and possible further IR rises
  19. The figures for those leaving are not quite as accurate with regards to housing A large proportion of those leaving are aged between 20 - 30 and do not own a property & 50 - 60 and still keep their property here in the uk. Either rent it or leave it for family. What does concern me with the mass emigration is that many will be returning within a short period when they realise life in another country is not all that different to back home once they settle in. I know of three couples who have left over the past 5 years and all bar one has returned within the last 12mths.
  20. From all the debates I have seen to date on an HPC the bulls defence has been very weak and the bears have had the upper hand on the argument. But for once the best bull statement I seen came from the news presenter himself which for a short period hit FP of track when he said about housing a long term investment to replace a pension, I don't think FP seen it coming and took a while to compose himself to respond. FP has done more homework than the bulls and this can clearly be seen in the interviews. Just to balance things I would like to see a bull with all the facts and figures to really get the best out of FP, I read in the mail this morning that every minute of every day a new migrant comes to britain requiring housing.
  21. What did he mean by falls though, Nominal or real. If inflation creeps towards 3.5% then any stagnation will mean houses falling 3.5% in real terms, I still think we are quite a way from nominal falls. As the 0.5% increase needed after a possible May increase to reach 6% may not be seen until early next year if the BOE increase by 0.25% at their current rate of every 3 months
  22. Looking at the yorkshires current line up, they have increased the rate but scrapped all fees...So I guess one offsets the other to a large extent as these fees were anything £499 upwards
  23. Many brits may end up being hit with a double whammy, First their spanish residence crashes and then their uk property takes a beating, or the other way around. I know a few who have bought abroad as well as having mortgaged property here in the uk
  24. Each year that a property stagnates its in effect losing money in real terms, So if we have already had a year of no growth for 75% post codes it could be argued the crash has begun. From my neck of the woods I would say that prices are now less than 2004 when I firmly believe for many parts of the country was the peak of the market. Since then prices have never really recovered accept for a few corner pockets of the country. This I think will save the market in the longer term and can only be a good thing, Everyone on here knew prices could not continue to rise forever and forever and now the word is on the street lets hope that the soft landing mentioned earlier in the thread pans out. I am predicting at most 20% nominal losses overall over the next 4 years, So anyone who bought with a decent deposit should avoid negative equity which can only be a good thing for all concerned, Because I for 1 do not want to see families on the street. 20% over 4 years
  25. From my calculations a 20% fall in nominal values over the next 4 years seems to be about right to bring the housing situation back in line. So 50% nominal seems a little over ambitious Calculation over next 4 years
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