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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Jonnybegood

  1. As said before IR alone can not bring about a crash etc, But would this kind of info have an influence on the BOE to keep IR frozen or maybe even drop them like they did last time. I have heard it many times that their aim was to cool the market not crash it and rising IR are surely going to contribute to tightening credit as banks start to panic and start the downward spiral, Could we really be heading for a few years of very little movement in the market and where some get a bargain here and there with some desperate to sell or for other reasons.
  2. Exactly 84% over 10 years, Your saying 300% over 5 years, Why? How? Unless I see an article on this I am sorry but this is a long way off the mark. House prices can triple because people can borrow to buy, Not the same with council tax. Also Time where have you seen house prices triple in 5 years outside of London and the surrounding area because I have seen doubling at most in 5 years for majority of the country.
  3. If council tax tripled to the figures shown without significant wage increases there will be a riot on a scale that will make the poll tax riots look like snow white and the seven dwarfs. No matter what you say about house prices tripling its been over a longer period and does not effect everyone!! this does, young , old, rich , poor. They cannot lock up everyone and prisons are already overcrowded. It will never happen, How can a widow on a state pension afford £3000 year tax bill. Just a reminder Poll Tax
  4. Not quite, 4+ Bed £400,000 3 Bed £200,000, This is reality the gap between houses is too big there is no need for smaller/Cheaper house to reduce further as activity in that sector is normally pretty good, FTB , BTL , Downsizing , Divorce , Student property its the more expensive houses that just need to come down a peg or two on the ladder to allow those looking to move up to do so and then more housing released at the lower end for FTB and the like. This is what will happen and it will be good for the market.
  5. No experience but I would say that Rentals would remain pretty static but get a steady flow of tenants so supply/Demand could be an issue. For many I would see renting as a safe haven when prices start falling and IR start creeping up. However going back to the supply/Demand thingy with many STRing and being repo'ed this time around there may be quite a large shortage of decent rentals meaning that rentals may in fact increase especially with no one wanting to buy in a falling market. This is only guess work but I suppose possible with the combination of immigrants fighting for rental property Looking on rightmove a few minutes ago and typed a few towns (Not Cities) and very few decent rentals available at the right price. The story is probably different in cities but many towns do suffer from the lack of decent rental properties. I would say during a crash this would get worse forcing prices up
  6. There are still many with wealth so don't be fooled, Even those who bought 20 years ago and have been in well paid employment since are sitting pretty having paid their £50,000 mortgage off some 10 years ago whilst they now earn between them £60,000 per annum. There are many friends of mine who are looking to downsize now the family have flown the nest, put their £300,000 properties on the market and doing up their new home at the same time, When it all goes through will be pocketing a clear £120,000 and still have a nice home to live in. This is repeated across the country and should not be underestimated in keeping the market moving.
  7. I just want people to get the message its over and prices are not longer goiing to be rising in nominal terms for a good few years, Less of those bleating on about how their property has increased 20% in value since last year. But as the OP do not want to see the innocent hard working indivdual caught once again just because they bought an home not an investment whilst those who bought for investment and fuelled this damn thing walk away to continue doing it all over again once prices bottom. As for stagnation for BTL market many will get out once they see no more capital gains. some will stay because they still believe they cannot go wrong with property and others will continue to buy. I see a stagnation creating good turn over for current BTL whilst people still priced out wait for housin to become more affordable, I think something also been missed with regards to BTL is the mass imigrants requiring housing something we did not have during the previous crashes. Lastly I also remember the standard of housing available during the last crash, mostly run down trashed repos or many in bed sit / BTL to land. Many established family estates/areas had very few houses coming to market, I think because many like our ourselves were to frightened to make a move as we did not know which way the market and IR were going to go and with prices going nowhere it was really pointless moving at that point.
  8. Once out of the bag inflation will be higher than current figures make us believe, Even at 4% you will be suprised how quickly that will eat into house prices YOY, Plus the discounts once sentiment changes, At least a 10% reduction on asking prices. It will not take to long 3-4 years and thats without a crash for prices to become affordable once again. I mean investor who have sold recently and will buy once the market bottoms out and then snap up BTLs once again, They will have cash waiting to outbid FTB on many properties. EAs do not like stagnation when nobody wants to make a move, When booming prices they get higher commission when prices fall and many want to get out they have quick turn over. Banks will profit from repos because you still need to pay the banks back even though they have taken the house, So in the end they will get their money.
  9. If you want to buy then be sure to have a 20% deposit to hand and be prepared for 8% IR and your borrowing no more than 3X your income otherwise the banks will not want to know. Unless of course you can buy out right for cash which should be around 30% less than current prices today.
  10. I have thought about a crash and back last year is what I would of wanted but now all I want is a good few years of nominal stagnation to allow inflation to start eating into house prices so in effect yes prices would be falling. Why the change? Well I have looked around and spoke to many people regarding the property market and if things crash I would feel sorry for the FTB who recently bought, Whatever anyone says it not their fault they bought, many have been waiting 5 years. Many don't read forums like this and only listen and read whats in the media. Why should they now suffer further having already taken the biggest decisions to buy, it could be anyone of our sons or daughters. Secondly if prices crash then many investors who bought and sold recently with big profits are going to buy again at lower prices and will once again slip the net whilst others suffer at what they have created. Thirdly, Estate agents do not like stagnation as its not good for business, If prices fall they will have many repos , and BTLs bailing out which would mean a steady turn over of business for them. If prices continue to boom then as the past 5 years they will be looking at bumper YOY profits, Stagnation and business will be quiet. Fourthly, If prices crash and many struggle then Repos will increase and the banks will take back the houses, I do not want to see this as banks are rich enough without taking the last from honest working class people. Lastly, it will stop mewing and suddenly everyone will get the message that property does not always go up and some normality will return, People will need to work to get on in life and not see their homes as a cash machine anymore. Also those who STR will not benefit but will be allowed to re enter the market at the same at which they sold.
  11. The only places I am seeing houses on the market in mass are BTL suburbs, Flats , Terraced , New builds all the established prime residental areas are the same as 2 years ago. Nothing for sale!!!
  12. I read recently that nationwide as always been classed a prime lender however of late is selling more sub prime products and come under fire, They are going to slash jobs in their sub prime dept and return to being known as a prime only lender. Its what the members want apparently and the boss agrees. This is the start of the transformation..
  13. I thought FTBs left the market some years ago and were replaced by BTL
  14. A 30% nominal drop is equivalent to a 50% rise, At least my area prices have been pretty stagnant for the past 2 years, the last time they were around 30% less than todays prices was 2002 (5 years ago), Anyone will tell you prices head down slower than the speed at which they went up. Plus when you consider inflation which at the moment many believe to be around 4-5% then actual nominal falls may only be around 20% at best over the next 5-8 years. Many areas may not see nominal falls where as others up to 30%. You may be renting for longer than you think
  15. It has to be in relation to the Nationwides figures http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2082076,00.html
  16. 1990 = £40,000 1998 = £60,000 2001 = £80,000 2007 = £160,000 40% fall = £96,000 Get the idea, 300% up is not as bad as its sound because prices then on average were fairly low and percentage increases did not increase the value of a property by a great amount. So falls now of even 10% slashes thousands from the price of property, Remember 100% up is 50% down
  17. Have a closer read on the housing market for the past 6 years and you see nearly every year a crash has been called, That for many is 6 years of rent and 6 years of lost HPI or 100% rise in prices back then. Those who decided to gamble. Well its paid off..
  18. Maybe its just me but some reports even from the BBC seemed far from ramping property over the past 6 years. You'll be suprised how much bearish reports have been published its just that everyone has got blinkers on. Property only ever goes up remember Brown dismisses house price crash - BBC 2004 Are house prices set to crash too? - BBC 2001 Are we heading for housing crash? - BBC 2002 The Great House Price Crash 2005? - BBC 2005 Head to head: Will property prices crash? - BBC 2007
  19. Nonesense the word "Crash" has been floating around for the past 6 years, Read some of what many call the bullish BBC news reports from the past 6 years. So its nothing new Brown dismisses house price crash - BBC 2004 Are house prices set to crash too? - BBC 2001 Are we heading for housing crash? - BBC 2002 The Great House Price Crash 2005? - BBC 2005 Head to head: Will property prices crash? - BBC 2007 And still prices went up
  20. It is now becoming a matter of when not if, But by how much will prices drop is the next big question. Even the analysts and economists 70% in fact (A high proportion) think inflation falls are the most probable outcome with only 20% seeing actual falls. In that respect very little has changed, I would of thought with all the bearish reports of late a higher percentage would of stuck their necks out. Many of the falls expected I do not think are going to materialise and will stick to my prediction of at most 20% nominal falls over the next 5 years, less if inflation takes off.
  21. Will higher IR actually be a good thing, Yes its good for savings (Although many banks do not pass on the rate change) but will higher rates suddenly cause the market to head in reverse. I think it will lead to a very quiet market for the next year or so, For prices to drop all involved in the chain need to drop their price, BTL may drop their prices to get out but many will hold out in hope as many will sit and wait to see what happens, A case of who makes the first move and caves in. FTB are still going to find affordability hard with higher IR even if prices do fall, Those looking to move up the ladder are more than ever going to be worried taking on more debt with rising IR and may stay put a little longer, Like I say unless the chain drops the price all along the line then prices will go nowhere.
  22. Even though its the banks job to control inflation they will be aware and so will GB that manufacturing is starting to recover, They have to be careful not to let it slip back again. IR will be 6% by this time next year and then sit around that figure for quite sometime, As its been mentioned before if they hit 6% rates would be almost double what they were 4 years ago. That should be enough IMO to bring consumer spending under control and for those who continue to mew that the game is finally over and get back to reality.
  23. Thanks, But as the US as always consumed more petrol than diesel should that mean that Diesel should always be lower than petrol as demand is less. Why were diesel prices hiked above petrol in the first place? Up until a few years ago they were always lower than petrol, I suppose its down to more diesel now on the road is it.
  24. Penarth, Just outside Cardiff Wales. If you have a look at the rentals on Rightmove there is very little family housing, mostly 2 bed flats/apartments however the for sale market as a choice of 3 bed semis. So I suppose in true supply/Demand style the 3 bed houses for rent do not last long and those that are still up for rental are quite high premiums
  25. Noticed this evening that Diesel is now cheaper than Unleaded petrol, Anyone know why?
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