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About danski

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  1. Does anybody have a link to the article? Would be interested to have a read...
  2. As you can see, I don't predict a fall in prices for any of these but also don't envisage a rise in excess of 10% for any of them. If you read articles by the smart economists (which doesn't include the headline grabbing journalists at the Daily Express and Daily Mail), then you'll see a common theme in their reports - prices will slow significantly in London but you won't be seeing a housing crash (defined as a fall of 20%). Lack of stock is the reason banded about most often but money is the key. Until the financial district suffers a downturn (and then all investments will suffer unless you're one of the few with £000,000's in the bank!), foreign wealth will still want a base here and that in turn creates a ripple effect down to the bottom end of the market. I think that we will see a repeat of 2001-2004 between late 2008 and 2010 where London prices will just stand still in order to allow salaries to catch up - at current inflation rates, the average London FTB couple in their late 20's with a combined salary of £65,000 - £70,000 will be earning an additional 12-15% in 4-5 years time which equates to a combined salary of approx. £75,000 - £80,000. That should redress the current imbalance between salary and mortgage and then £310,000 in 2011 (up from £290,000 in 2007) for a 2 bed in a decent London suburb won't look so overinflated as it will equate to 4 times the combined salary. Additionally, if interest rates hit the 6.5% barrier (common concensus is that this is the rate which for many people across the country will be a rise to far) it is true that many Londoners would feel the pinch but this is also unlikely to cause a crash for the following reasons: Most buying now (which may be near the top of the cycle) will be securing two/three year fixed rates which should carry them over the worst of the interest rises. As for those who have owned their property for some time (i.e. they bought them at more realistic prices before the recent boom), a rise in interest rates to 6.5% won't force these people to sell up because their mortgage/income ratio will be lower than that of current buyers and they'll be better placed to absorb the rises. Lets be realistic here - if a couple in London could afford a joint mortgage of £300,000 on a flat in Clapham and took a variable rate (when rates were say 4.75%) then even if rates hit 7% (and stayed there for a while) that would represent an increase to their monthly payment of £562.50 per month across two incomes - that sort of figure just won't be causing most young london professionals to stick up the For Sale sign especially since landlords will probably cash in on the slow down in buying (caused by the higher rates) by increasing rental rates. If property prices begin to fall then our Clapham couple also won't be selling up if they're smart as history shows that everything runs in a cycle and they'll simply hold out for the recovery and the next rise unless they see it as a good opportunity to trade up to a larger property (the point about rent rates increasing made above would also apply in a falling market). Or in the alternative, as they will have bought their property at a pre-boom price they can probably remortgage at a fixed rate and cover their new mortgage by renting out the property whilst they step back into the market and purchase a bigger and better second property at a reduced price thus creating a new breed of buy-to-let investor (this last one is just my own personal theory and no doubt open to attack!). In conclusion, if you think you can buy a London BTL now and make a quick buck then you're wrong - the interest rates have sorted that out. However, if you're buying for the long term - 5 years + then unless Russia send a missile our way then you won't end up with a loss as prices are likely to remain stagnant or at worse fall by less then they will rise before the falls begin. Buying a home in London is still a safe investment in the coming months provided that you buy in an established area as we've not reached the crest of the wave just yet. Read this article from the times yesterday - the most sensible article I've read in a long time - you just can't compare London with the UK market as a whole. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1884381.ece
  3. Well a place like Nunhead doesn't have much to offer young people. In Blackheath you're a short walk from a fantastic green space, the river is close and there are lots of great cafes/bars/restaurants. That's what puts the price up! For the same price as a one bed flat in Chelsea, you could walk 5 minutes across the bridge to Battersea and get a house - areas close to oneover differ hugely in price for good reason
  4. I'm not sure I understand the logic of posts such as these. Why would you want to 'wade in' and alert the users of another forum that perhaps their grasp of the market isn't particularly sound and that they're heading for a big fall if they don't change their mentality. It appears to me that most HPC members are actually praying for a crash and therefore surely it's in your interests to sit back and let others plough on in blissful ignorance, which is more conducive to bringing about a heavy crash sooner, than to educate them which would increase the chances of a 'soft landing' if they actually listen....?
  5. That's very helpful infor but unfortunately I can't find the sub 200k flats in blackheath which you mention. The place I had a look at in Blackheath is £319,000 - a 2-bed on Shooters Hill Road a stones throw from the heath and about 12 min to the heart of the village. I think it's nice and I could certainly see myself living there through a crash if necessary. It also appears a reasonable price compared to what £325,000 can get you in a place like Clapham but the price is £70,000 more than the property was sold for at the start of last year which equates to a 25%-30% increase in little over a year. With so few comparable 2 beds on the market there, it's hard to see whether this is indeed fair value or not...
  6. On the basis of much that was said in this thread, we pulled the plug on the Woolwich riverside purchase so I forfeited my £1000 reservation fee! I'm neither a bear nor a bull but I do think that prices, at least in London, will stagnate for a couple years rather than suffer a meltdown although my old man thinks to the contrary and therefore wants the property search to continue in more established areas which will be more insulated during a crash. I found a place I quite like this week in the Greenwich/Blackheath area which seems reasonably priced compared to other parts of London but I checked the land registry records and the asking price is 30% greater than what it was bought for at the start of 2006! Does anybody with knowledge of South East London know whether prices have really rocketed to such an extent?
  7. Thanks for all the advice Little Miss. I will have another look at Greenwich tonight - it's actually East Greenwich so it's a bit ropey but it doesn't have the huge Woolwich council towers which dominate the skyline there. I think it's wrong to place people in that sort of housing - if I was a kid trapped on the 15th floor of a council estate I'd probably also go around causing trouble.
  8. Not sure why the word s-w-a-n-k-y is censored above? Anyway, just in case it's censored again - I mean smart/flash 2 bed flats and not a rude word which starts in S and ends in Y....
  9. I appreciate that now may not be the best time to buy but I am in a position where my parents want to reinvest money that they have released by selling the flat that they had in London and if they don't invest in a London property to help me then they will tie up their money elsewhere. They are still relatively confident that in 5 years time (being the point at which they would need to retrieve their funds), they wouldn't have lost on their investment. So, even if the market slumps by 20% in a years time, the funding available to me will have disappeared and anything above £200,000 will be well out of reach - even in a slump I think it will be hard to find a decent 2 bed in London for under £200,000. Therefore, I'm looking at Woolwich on a 5 year basis - however, I'm also considering Greenwich. For the same price as one of the s*****y 2 bed flats in Woolwich I could get a small 2 bed cottage with garden in Greenwich. The Berkley homes complex at Woolwich is as nice as the best streets in Greenwich but as soon as you step out of its grounds, it gets rough whereas Greenwich seems a better area overall. Still don't know what to do and have until 5pm to decide (classic estate agent pressure which makes me livid!).
  10. It's a shame to hear that the redevelopment plans aren't really being carried out properly. How are prices looking in your development as a result? Have they risen over the last couple of years? Also, are you sticking around in Woolwich to see if things improve or are you trapped due to a lack of growth in your property value?
  11. I decided to totally move away from the established areas such as Clapham as the reports are true - I genuinely was fighting against 20 people for every flat. I've always wanted a warehouse style flat near the river but that type of property was never in my price range until I stumbled across Woolwich. That's why I have done the big jump. It's also particularly well connected to the city which is important work wise but I can't help thinking that I'd be running out of the station every night for the next few years to get into the development grounds as quickly as possible!
  12. Not wishing to upset residents of Woolwich, I don't think anybody could honestly say that they LIKE Woolwich town. The Royal-Arsenal site is very very nice indeed and for £350,000 you can get 1000sq feet in a grade II listed building in a historical site. That makes me think that perhaps this development is more insulated from a crash than the typical riverside tower blocks that you see popping up along the thames. But the town itself seems pretty rough so it really needs the development plans to be seen through to the end. Maybe I'm falling victim to the 'must buy at all costs' disease that is exercising the minds of most London FTB's who feel that they can get on the ladder now just but may not be able to in 3 months time if 3.7% per month is anything to go by!
  13. There do appear to be a lot of plans on the table to regenerate Woolwich and the transport plans would make it very well connected to central London but as you say blackbrogue, I am concerned that perhaps the regeneration factor has already been priced in before the work has been done. There is also the worry that if there was a large correction in house prices, the developer may decide to delay completion of the project for a number of years until the upward cycle begins again. Woolwich would also seem to be the type of area that would suffer the effects of a price correction much quicker than more established areas. Decisions, decisions...
  14. Hello everyone, I'm new to the forum but have been reading many of the threads on here for some time to try and get a feel for the market. As a first time buyer I've had quite a horrendous time looking for property over the last 6 months putting in offers on 14 properties and being gazumped twice (once without there even being a counter-offer - the seller just decided he wanted an extra £15,000 on exchange day!). I'd been looking at established areas such as Clapham and Highbury but the competition is just too fierce so I've turned my attention to South East London and in particular the Royal Arsenal development by Berkley homes. I'd like to gage the views of the users on this forum as to whether this development is overpriced. The one beds are upwards of £200,000 and two beds are upwards of £320,000 - this is pretty average on a London wide basis but a great deal higher than property outside of the development grounds. I'm quite interested as the development itself looks to be of a very high quality but I'm slightly concerned by Woolwich itself as it seems a bit rough to say the least. So, any views on whether the Woolwich regeneration is an accident waiting to happen or a good future prospect would be much appreciated.
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