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Everything posted by ian13

  1. http://www.moneyweek.com/file/7067/whats-r...rty-market.html Some Jewels from the Blog list. Take the Government’s estimate of average annual wages of £23,400 and the Land Registry’s most recent (July-September) house price average of £194,589, and the HPE appears to be 8.3 times. But as he then points out, they aren’t really – of the surveyors and estate agents surveyed, 24% reported that prices had fallen in the preceding three months and 11% said they had risen, giving an unadjusted balance of –13%. “However, estate agents tend to be unduly pessimistic in November, so the RICS seasonally adjusted measure turns the negative reading into a positive balance of +4%.” It doesn’t matter how negative the number; those with a vested interest in making the market look good can find a way to report them as positive. Ian.
  2. I am bearish long term, but this rally may run a bit longer. See www.asiachart.com for the near term trend. 6400 on the Dow predicted for Oct 2006. (www.fiendbear.com - Cross-currents link). Ian. ...But don't bet the house.....
  3. If i had some money I'd play the markets using spread bets. The dow usually moves 1% a day ( high to low). Trades nost days. So in a year you'd get 52*5=260 days at 1% each day thats a total of 26000 points on the Dow. Say you were betting on a six month Dow ( say March 2006) the margin is 400, so to bet 10 pound a point you'd need 4000 pounds. IF, you could ride the full distance you'd make 26,000 *10 = 260,000 Bingo. I advise you start small say 1 pound per point and see how you get on. Use the order book to get in and out of the market. 80% of people will loose all their stake money on spreadbetting. That still leaves 20% making something. I am broadly flat, so trading is not an easy thing to do. Good luck mon ami. Ian.
  4. A good site for the bear is www.fiendbear.com I particularily like alan newmans site and www.comstock.com Alan Newman is predicting 6400 for the Dow by October 2006. Interesting. For charting I'd recommend www.asaiachart.com Ian.
  5. www.fiendbear.com - market commentray. Look at the charts here. www.asiachart.com - Look at the DOW/NADDAQ/T-BoND. If the dow breaks 11,200 up she goes. Ian.
  6. have a look at the www.fiendbear.com site. An excellent site for a bear. I particularily read the comstock commentary every Thursday. Houses in this part of the country, North Wales are still increasing. Hmmmm. Ian.
  7. Nice thread with some excellent logic. It's cheaper to rent now, the sucker is the guy holding the property. Ian
  8. THis story about renting up to 50% of the value of a house and getting 'soft' money from the goverment in order to buy. Here a novel idea, why not let the market find it's own level. This is just a prop for a price that cannot be otherwise sustained so why do it? Either this is a spin story (100K buyers over 5 years is not that many ) apparently our population is going above 60m this thursday. This is all a load of nonsense. Work till your 70. Blah. Why have goverment at all if they can't govern, Hmmmm. Sales volumes are down 40% if you were talking about the share market that is ALWAYS a precursor to a drop. I mean if you can't sell the stock you've got to drop the price , simply. I think the labour party are sh*t scarred that the hosuing market will tank, nice timing Tony on that 12k a month mortgage. Ian. PS Don't forget to put 15% of you salary into a pension that the pension company keep when you peg it. Biy are people stupid or what.
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