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adamlondon

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About adamlondon

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  1. There is still money around at the £3m + mark. The difference now is that last summer there would have been 3 or 4 people offering at least the asking price. It's houses between £1.25m and £2.75m where I think the real pressure will come.
  2. I agree, I'm banking on city job losses + ECB rates rising following by BOE rates rising to curb inflation - but then I'm not banker nor an economist
  3. I have posted on here a few times describing my experiences in NW8. In my last post in one of Monty's threads I described how, in March 2008, a house I looked at went to sealed bids at over £1.7m. I had the usual comments about being a VI or EA. I'm neither but simply tell things how they are. For the first time since 2004 I have now seen hard evidence that prices are falling. These are: First there are a substantial number of hosues on the market between £2m and £2.5 m which are simply not selling. Secondly, i have been phoned by agents telling me vendors are 'open to offers'. Thirdly, I had a connversation with an EA about the house that wen to sealed bids recently. It went something like this: EA: are you still looking for a house? Me; I might be EA well the hosue that went to sealed bids in March is back on the market Me: really? EA: Yes the person who made the offer pulled out becuse he was worried about the market and the second said he had finance but is messing around Me; that's interesting - won't be around for the summer but i may have a look when I get back in September. EA: but you will have to move quickly we are expecting the market to pick up in the Autumn!!!!
  4. Try reading my previous posts and you will see I'm not not an EA.
  5. Here is another anecdote from the prime central london coalface. Nw8, 35 ordnance hill in need of complete modernisation (at least £150k - £200k plumbing electrics kitchen bathrooms, everything) £1.65m. Advertised by sealed bids (the owners are the Eyre estate they always sell this way). The highest offer when bids closed last week exceeded £1.7 m. Now tell me there is a HPC in central london. I am a bear and told my wife prices peaked in 05, but what do I know. Since then prices have almost doubled in Nw8. (check out ordnance hill if you are sceptical about this)
  6. Unless inflation is rampant then I doubt you would lose half the value in that time but even if you lost (say) 30 per cent - if a house (not flat) is selling for £2.5 million it would be selling for equivilent of £1.75 miliion whereas 2 years ago you could pick up the same sort of house for £1.3 million (Even then I told my wife it was over priced!!). Its going to require a massive drop to bring prices down to that level and I just can't see it. Much as I would like it.
  7. Which area are you in flopsy? This accords entirley with my view, I'm in NW8. I'm still sceptical as to whether the scenarios you outline will cause a reduction in real prices. The fact is rich people tend to hang onto property for the long term. In the last crash according to the map which has been on here SW7, SW3, SW1, W1 and NW8 did not suffer a fall in prices - that's not say there will be not be stagnaiton. But frankly if there is stagnation at current prices it will take ages before anyone who does not earn a large annual bonus will be able to afford any decent property.
  8. The picture in central London is much the same. I have been trying to buy a house for at least 2.5 years was gazumped on one in April. We have just now sold our flat. The flat was sold at the asking price which tells me there are still plenty of demand still. I want to rent because I firmly believe prices will come down, but my wife thinks i'm deluded. she wants to buy now because she fears that prices will rise yet further and also doesn't want the hassle of renting. We trooped round three houses last week all of which recently came on the market and all of which are now under offer. Whilst its fair to say they did not get offers in excess of the asking price as was happening before the summer, all of the offers were within about 5 per cent of the asking price. This isn't great news but there is no point in pretending there is an enromous crash underway when there does not appear to be. In central london I can't see where the economic shock necessary for a crash is likely to come from. The NR debacle seems to have been shrugged off here. Of course things may be, and are no doubt are, different elsewhere. thats not to say there won't be some stagnation but as for a crash - I keep praying but my patience is running out.
  9. Much as I would like to believe this I have my doubts for the reasons set out below: (I posted this earlier on the main board): I'm In NW8 looking for a house. I had observed property staying longer on the market and thought that meant sellers would start taking lower offers. I was disabused of this last week when I made offers on two properties below the asking price and was told by the EA that in both cases the sellers had offers above the asking price but were holding out for more!! My view is that prime central london is completely detached from the wider housing market and that it is driven by banker bonuses and foreign 'investors' I was told that 42 per cent of buyers in NW8 are foreign cash buyers. If you need a mortgage or have somthing to sell then you are of no interest to EAs. I note the prediciton is that there will be significant city bonuses next year. I would be delighted to seee a fall but cannot see where it is coming from. To give an indication of the boom. In my street in July 2005 a house was sold for £995k. It has just been resold for £2m. I myself was gazumped by somebody offering £400k! more on the day of exchange in April. 18 months years ago I was told by EAs that you will not get ahouse in NW8 for less than £1m now they tell me I will not get ahouse for less than £2m. I told my wife in 2005 that we shouldn't buy because a crash was immintent. The only saving grace is I didn't STR. Also homeowners here are so well of and mortgage free that interest rate rises do not have the same impact. Does anyone know what the effect of the hpc last time was in the cetral london market?
  10. I'm not an EA apology accpeted and i'll check out the webiste, thanks
  11. its not, its a listed victorian terrace in a conservation area
  12. this is not my street for obvious reasons but look at the land registry prices if you don't belive me: Take No. 43 as an example: The house next door to that sold at £1.9 last month. As I said don't give me flack because of where I live 16 Nov 2006 43, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,670,000 12 Apr 2006 45, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,310,000 06 Feb 2006 41, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,170,000 14 Jun 2002 21, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PR Terr Lease £1,025,000 02 Dec 2003 31, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Lease £980,000 16 Sep 2004 45, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £980,000 30 Apr 2004 37, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £802,400 30 Sep 2005 43, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £790,000
  13. I appreciate that this post will only be of interest to a few but please don't give me flack on the basis of where I live. I'm a bear but beginning to lose faith for the reasons set out below. I'm In NW8 looking for a house. I had observed property staying longer on the market and thought that meant sellers would start taking lower offers. I was disabused of this last week when I made offers on two properties below the asking price and was told by the EA that in both cases the sellers had offers above the asking price but were holding out for more!! My view is that prime central london is completely detached from the wider housing market and that it is driven by banker bonuses and foreign 'investors' I was told that 42 per cent of buyers in NW8 are foreign cash buyers. If you need a mortgage or have somthing to sell then you are of no interest to EAs. I note the prediciton is that there will be significant city bonuses next year. I would be delighted to seee a fall but cannot see where it is coming from. To give an indication of the boom. In my street in July 2005 a house was sold for £995k. It has just been resold for £2m. I myself was gazumped by somebody offering £400k! more on the day of exchange in April. 18 months years ago I was told by EAs that you will not get ahouse in NW8 for less than £1m now they tell me I will not get ahouse for less than £2m. I told my wife in 2005 that we shouldn't buy because a crash was immintent. The only saving grace is I didn't STR. Also homeowners here are so well of and mortgage free that interest rate rises do not have the same impact. Does anyone know what the effect of the hpc last time was in the cetral london market?
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