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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Jem

  1. Very refreshing to have a reasonable and thoughtful response other than from the perpetually nasty and angry crowd who think that ordinary people should be treated worse than soiled disposable nappies. Things happen to people, often they have no control over circumstances and situations facing them. I want to live in a society who cares for people in need particularly where children are involved.
  2. You are absolutely right, there are better options other than to criminalise people. Any one with experience of house swapping? It takes ages, a short term employment contract would be long gone before there is a chance to swap. Also note, that those who sublet need somewhere else to live, not all subletting is driven by the profit motive.
  3. £50,000 fine sounds very harsh - which sounds great to me. Allow me to introduce a real world example, not all sub letters are crooks. A close friend of mine got a contractual job offer in Nottinghamshire, he is a council tenant in Central London. He has a contract for twelve months work and is very keen to take his family with him, do note that this is short term contractual work. Should he give up his council tenancy or sublet? I advised him to sublet and rent privately in Nottinghamshire, this is what he has done. All of a sudden he is potentially a criminal for doing his best for his family. I suspect that there would be thousands more like him. This is what happens when you have people in government with no idea what it takes for ordinary people to survive, keep a roof over their children's heads and a crust on the table. Please consider carefully what you would do in the same situation before condeming good people.
  4. The more scarry scenario is; will these people ever be able to sell their houses at the prices at which they bought them given the rationing of mortgage finance? I think it is now impossible to accurately judge the value of a property, we cannot ever assume that mortgage lending will return to the levels which it has been during the past seven years. Experts seem to think that house prices need to fall by 40% before we just begin to get the fundamentals of the market in sync. Those who bought during the past seven years with a small deposit or little equity will pay an enormous price, in fact they will be ruined. More victims of our glorious bankers.
  5. It's a pity that your achievements have not included the ability to have compassion on other people whose primary mistake was to have been aspirational that is to improve themselves and the living standards of their families. What they lacked was the ability to develop a strategy to maintain their newly acquired living standards and above all understand the financial implications of their actions and certainly the consequences. Whatever you've achieved someone along the way has helped you out, even if it is through the taxes of those you so despise. Your achievement of professional status has clearly not helped to disguise a flawed personality to say the least. Hope that life never brings suffering into your path (or maybe it should, you might be a better person for it) and that you continue to be the bright centre of your own universe.
  6. I am surprised to find something which I wrote many months ago being used again, but I was right and I am not gloating about it. I've predicted the last two years of price increases correctly. Reading again what I must have written near the beginning of 2006 I see no reason to change my mind, sadly. I repeat, if you want to live in London and the South East you need to be able to compete for housing with global capital. Government realises this and are trying with its various schemes to stem the market, it won't. I wish I could be more hopeful to those of you who are desperate to get on the ladder, in the UK everything is for sale and now our housing stock built up over centuries are being sold to foreigners who have no social stake in our society. I have three children in their mid teens, within the next couple of years my wife and I will have to decide whether we became one of the BTL brigade. The alternative is that our children will never be alble to afford a property. We will need to start off mortgages for them and they will take it over hopefully post university etc. Why am I concerned about the welfare of others? I was once an economist for a major bank, I am now also a Church of England Vicar (I'm not joking). It cannot be right that younger people have to take on huge mortgages just to find a decent place to live and for their parents to have to deplete their pension funds to get them on the ladder. We are storing up a huge social cost for the future. Jem
  7. Couldn't believe what I'd heard and seen, houses are being snapped up mostly by Africans and Eastern Europeans in Dagenham! Only place in London where you can get a three bed for around £200 000 and be in the City or Canary Wharf within 30 minutes.
  8. All evidence that people behave rationally when it comes to debt. There is of course good debt and bad debt. Home improvements and investigating in improving your skills are good debt. Most people can service their debt if the worse happens equity in homes will always be an escape hatch.
  9. The Russians are here already. Damn Cristina Odone Sunday October 15, 2006 The Observer Throughout the day, as I work, I check my inbox for my 'prime location property alert'. That means the property website has found a house or flat to match my request (three bedrooms and at least 1,000 sq ft for peanuts). As soon as I see it I am off, ringing the agency advertising the property, arranging a viewing. You have to move fast these days if you're going to beat the Russians....../ More evidence of the London and South East housing stock becoming a global commodity. We once had a closed market where the normal rules applied i.e if housing becomes too expensive for FTB's a correction could be expected in the short term. The really alarming comment in this report is that the Russians and others I might add are no longer focussed on central London only - they are looking at other areas in the capital and in the South East. They keep the sentiment of an ever increasing market going and with the insatiable Chinese and Indians will allow it to keep doing so into the foreseable future. This in turn allows parents to MEW with confidence and get their offspring onto the housing ladder. IR are still historically low and employment high despite locals losing jobs at the low end due to immigration. The Eastern Europeans are flooding our universities in ever greater numbers, they are right, realising that the key to success in the UK economy is a British qualification alongside their home achieved ones. This means that the pressure on the housing stock in good areas will become ever greater as income for these newcomers rise. I believed in a HPC to the end of 2004 - I still believe it will be conducive to a stable society for prices to decline, but its not going to happen. The largest fall we'v ever had was in the region of 33% -if this happens it will take us back to prices two years ago. Not much of a prospect to look forward to. GET ON THE LADDER NOW.
  10. [ Published: 12/10/2006 - 10:19:34 AM The average UK house price has been bumped up to almost £170,000 as a result of a good economy and increased immigration, figures released today showed....../ Fionnuala Earley, group economist at Nationwide, said: "House prices increased in every region of the UK over the last twelve months, supported by robust economic conditions and high levels of immigration ." I have long argued on this site that it is not the "poor" Eastern Europeans affecting the housing market (they are great for the btl fraternity) but the very rich and company executives and their entourages. I repeat, London and the South East housing stock are now global commodities i.e not influenced by local conditions or a local market. The absence of FTB's will mean nothing and prices will continue to grow. Those whom I advised to get onto the ladder in 2004 taking note only of location, are now in a good position and it might have been the last time they could afford a home. Do note the article below: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2399627,00.html http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2399627,00.html' rel="external nofollow">
  11. Reason is because most people in this position choose to go bankrupt at the same time and can therefore 'walk away'from all their debts. Anybody wonder why prices in London are rising and not falling given this very bad news? It is because the London housing market is now an international commodities market. There are thousands if not millions of highly skilled overseas professionals either arriving with their companies or recruited from abroad by British based companies. These are not classical immigrants, they come with large deposits or are cash buyers or their companies purchase properties. Yes, things are very different to the last crash since FTB's and others have been replaced by 'foreign' workers. The only option for FTB's is to get onto the ladder taking great care about location and the purchase will be safe from any future possible price declines.
  12. I live around the conrner, its a great block, very popular with renting professionals. Very short walk to Parsons Green station and the Fulham Road. Very safe area particularly for women even though there is quite a lot of social housing in the area. You could easily get £2500 per month in rent for this property.
  13. Would be very good to know why you hold such strong views against the area.
  14. This is very helpful thanks. I have taken your advice and remained in Romford on a Saterday evening, not very attractive, but the positives seem to me to outway the negatives. Could you please let me know what areas to avoid and the areas which are most attractive in Romford. Many thanks again,
  15. Pity you did not have the courage to deal with my arguments, Itherefore take it as a compliment that I am on to something. To try to answer your question, volumes are not required, the market is drven by sentiment. Do also consider taking your next holiday to China and see how a market works when it has potential consumers of over 1 billion people -millions of entreprenerial chinese are getting incredibly rich and need to invest their capital somewhere. London is a favourite destination for it, particularly its property market.
  16. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2146527,00.html And more evidence, a 46% increase in foreign buyer interest over the past two years. Admittedly, this is in the top strata of the market, but executives rarely arrive in London without support staff. To say nothing of the rich Indians and Chinese who want a typical British countryside house.
  17. Thank you for a good and thoughtful question. I mean by 'global commodity' that large numbers of highly skilled company executives from Indian and China, but also others from all over the world, are being sent to live in London. They need somewhere to live and have kept the housing market in London and the South East buoyant when almost everyone expected at least a stagnation or decline in prices. Independent schools across London have been enrolling record numbers of Chinese, Russians and to a lesser extent Indians. In short we no longer have a stratified housing market with FTB's at the bottom and hoping to climb the ladder as their income increases. Young Europeans and others have taken FTB's place and company executives have bought family accommodation in suburbs like Ealing for instance. Plus, the 'new rich' are investing in property in London for the long term, they do not much care about short term returns, they know that in the long-term their money is safe. With London increasing its influence as the financial capitol of the world, this situation is set to deepen.
  18. Many contributors here argue that its just a matter of time before the bubble is set to burst - and house prices will cascade downwards. This assumption is based on the boom and bust model of house prices, which admittedly has been the dominant model so far. However, it does not factor in that property in London and the South East is now a global commodity with massive demand for property and therefore making FTB's superfluous to the market. TO ALL FTB'S GET ON THE LADDER NOW! Advice I gave to several FTB's two years ago, all of them would not be able to afford their properties currently. I am not an EA, in fact it would be very good if prices fell to realistic levels, I'm afraid it's not going to happen in London and the South East.
  19. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...2136270,00.html Here is more evidence that the housing market in the South East is now a global commodity. FTB's must not only compete with the new wealth of India and China but also with the French and other Europeans attracted by the UK's vibrant economy. Prices will only decline if these sources of potential buyers come to an end. This is very unlikely in the near future. The only thing for FTB's to do is to get onto the ladder as soon as possible or if they want to live in the South East is to purchase elsewhere in the UK or world where its cheaper and become landlords themselves in order to finance a lifestyle in London and the South East. Those who argue for the waiting game are deluded and bound to a model of a housing market that no longer exists.
  20. Anyone with experience of living in Romford. Also, what have prices been doing? I am trying to find locations with reasonable access to London but at sensible prices. Romford appears to be one of these areas, but I have no experience of living in East or North East London. Any comments would be appreciated.
  21. Great pity that this forum, once very interesting with many thoughtful contributions has become a gathering place for anti-capitalist, anarchist and their like. Kaletsky is right, I have on this forum long argued that globalisation has fundamentally altered the property market in London and the South East. Kaletsky writes for the Times because he is one of the very best there is with a track record for accuracy over a long period of time. Better to interact with his views and at least accept that he may be right and you wrong. Something cataclysmic is happening to our housing in the SE - the choices for FTB will be very different in the future.
  22. Well done for raising this issue. I contacted rightmove to ask them to make publically available the dates from which properties have been advertised on their website. I needed to find out how much they were in the pockets of the EA's. They have not yet replied after two weeks. It can therefore be assumed that they are certainly not objective.
  23. You are right about parking, though there are periods such as school holidays when Rupert and Penelope take their children either on holiday or to their second homes. The council estates are the quitest I've ever seen. Many of the flats and homes have been purchased by private buyers from their former 'right to buy' owners at a massive profit. The rest are occupied by people who have lived here for 30 years or more and are happy to have a quiet life. A good place to buy - you'll always get your money back or more.
  24. YES! I've argued under other topics that the housing market in the South East is now a global commodity. Hence the continuing rise in prices, much of the fuel for rising prices is coming from Russia, India and China. I visited a private A level college in Marlebone just the other day and was very surprised at the large number of Chinese and former Soviet Union students who were enroled at the college completing their A levels. I found out that these students were living with their families in London and paying £20 000 per year was no problem. The head of the school told me that they lived in most of the best parts of London. FTB'S GET ON AS SOON AS YOU CAN.
  25. This is true, only place where good value is still to be found. The locals are selling up and moving out of London. Won't be long before it is gentrified, especially with the olympics on its way.
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