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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Antsy

  1. Not a chance. This tedious business will drag on till next spring.
  2. It must be that damn negative price growth that analysts keep spouting about. The developer wasn't lying - prices are still growing. Just negatively.
  3. Title says is all... but interestingly, despite ARLA's obviously bearish stance about tax breaks, only 10 percent of landlords would cut and run if mortgage interest wasn't tax deductable anymore. The rest would do little, dither or ignore it. So, if it's not going to create chaos, shouldn't Gordon go right ahead? (I've deliberately ignored the bit about how BTL has been benevolent enough to offer us all SUCH, SUCH 'choice in housing', because I'm currently trying to stay off the beta-blockers) Full text: Buy to let expectations remain positive - just don't tinker with the tax With relatively low loans on their investment properties, more than half of all Buy to Let investors expect to increase their portfolios over the coming twelve months and 90% of investment landlords said they would not sell should house prices fall, according to the latest ARLA quarterly Review and Index published today, Monday 24 September. This is based on the largest independent survey of the Private Rented Sector. However, if the summer's demands for changes in the tax regime for residential property investment were to be met, a significant number of investors would then consider selling, this latest Review shows. It is tax changes that would severely damage the Private Rented Sector. The ARLA Review and Index for the third quarter shows that 54% of all landlords surveyed during August expect to make further Buy to Let investments during the next twelve months. However, if mortgage interest ceased to be an allowable business expense, more than four out of ten, 42%, said they were uncertain what they would do. And, a significant minority, 28%, said they would certainly sell some property, while ten percent said they would sell out of the Private Rented Sector altogether. Commented Ian Potter, ARLA Operations Manager, "With the institutions less interested in the Private Rented Sector and private equity companies not filling the gap, the loss of any private individual investors would seriously effect the rental market and severely curtail choice in housing. Buy to Let Expectations "Private Buy to Let investors have refinanced the Private Rented Sector and restored social acceptability to renting," Ian Potter added. The quarterly Review and Index is based on data from the largest surveys of investment landlords and lettings agents in the Private Rented Sector. For the summer quarter, and despite the holiday season, 191 landlords and 463 ARLA member letting offices responded. These in-depth, independent surveys are supported by the ARLA Group of Mortgage Lenders: Bank of Ireland, Cheltenham & Gloucester, GMAC RFC, Mortgage Express, NatWest and Paragon Mortgages. The average Loan to Value ratio for Buy to Let investors in the last Quarter was 59%, marginally less than in the previous quarter. The proportion with loan to value ratios between 51% and 75% has dropped marginally, with a corresponding rise for those with ratios between 25% and 59%. Just over a quarter of all Buy to let investors have loan to value ratios of between 76% and 90%, with only 1.3% with loans to value of more than 90%. The Review and Index continues to show that the vast majority of landlords invest for the long term. The average life expectancy of their property investments is 16.5 years, with nearly a quarter expecting to hold their investments for more than 20 years. Over half of all landlords are investing for long term capital gain, while the number looking for a combined yield from capital appreciation and rental income dropped from 45% to 40%. Very few, only 2.5%, look to make short term capital gains. The Review shows annual rates of return, including rents and capital appreciation, for the last quarter across all regions as averaging 11.34% from an outright cash purchase of residential investment property and 22.26% from a geared residential property investment.
  4. Have inside info that one of the larger ex-building societies is to cut its fixed deals by 0.5% tomorrow... good news for those coming off current fixes if they can get 5.5% or thereabouts. Sadly, this saga is going to run and run.
  5. Got the current and savings accounts with Smile, so the Co-op is out - eggs, single basket and all that.
  6. Applied for an A & L business bank account a few weeks ago but obviously am now getting cold feet. Any suggestions about a place that would be safer and also pays good interest? Its for royalty-like payments of about 9k that are paid in as income from a limited company each month. The account will have quite a bit of cash in it and very few transactions coming out. Cheers and apologies for the choive of board - can't think where this request should go.
  7. Bit off track, but does anyone have any idea how the Co-op / Smile stack up on the BTL exposure front? Being 'ethical' you'd think they'd refuse to get involved but life's not like that... Being an ethical bank is like being a vegetarian pirhana
  8. Make sure you keep us up to date - this is much better than tonight's telly...
  9. The image of them throwing up skyscrapers is both entertaining and apt.
  10. This press release received by Mrs A Earlier is also suitably bearish on BTL, don't you think? Primemove.com - "Buy-2-Let and the King's new clothes" As you will recall, the King ordered a new suit of clothes which despite its apparent shortcomings his loyal followers agreed was the finest they had ever seen. In London at the Buy-to-let Forum organised by industry guru John Wriglesworth, followers of the King who appear to run the controversial buy-2-let industry discussed the impact of B2L on first time buyers, the role of property 'Investment' clubs and the outlook for the market both in the UK and abroad. The outlook, they said looked great! Over 300,000 mortgages for 'investment' purposes were offered last year and many now consider property an attractive alternative to a conventional pension. With capital values doubling over the past five years, it has been easy to persuade the public that investing in property was a "no brainer" and many have piled in. Speaking after the event, Henry Pryor, founder of Primemove said "Last week, the chairman of a large private property company in London warned that he felt that property was overvalued by 20% and with net returns (the rent as a percentage of the buildings' value) down to 3% in many places, putting the money in the bank at 5% is an attractive, risk-free alternative. "The delegates were convinced that the market would flat-line at worst but one panelist actually 'guaranteed' that property would be worth more next year than it is today." Pryor continued, "My problem is that this chap is a developer and like the other mortgage companies, agents and speculators represented at the event, none could afford to say that the outlook might be poor. Who wants to buy a property or a mortgage from someone who thinks that the market might fall? "As we have seen in the US where people who over-stretched themselves have brought about a crisis in parts of the wider financial markets, it is usually when everyone is saying that the future looks rosy that the tide turns and we learn words like "negative equity." As the little girl in the story proved, just because everyone else agrees, doesn't make them right. Buy-to-let is a long term investment that one should only make if you remember that property, like all other commodities, can go down as well as up!"
  11. Just seen this for rent in the local area: going for 1200 a month, sounds like a bargain if you don't mind shoring it up against the rain, etc! It was on findaproperty, horrible spelling and all. Sadly, no pictures. Big 3 bedroom plus 2 reception house in Penge. Great area with close to local transport and shoplots. Prefered the tenant whom work as builder. Call 0208 680 1133 now for further details. I also wonder how long this beauty will take to shift? Bear in mind that decent Victorian terraces on the other side of the road were going for 250k a year ago, and the last one I saw for sale 2 months ago had a 275 asking price. http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.a...p;agentid=07645 I think 'in need of SOME cosmetic improvement' is probably in breach of EA advert wording law, or at least wildly optimistic. Maybe the EA had been tasting some of the former occupants' wares?
  12. exactly. We're not loaded (hence lack of house ) but I figured that a CTF and pension were the best I could do with the limited funds available. Pension IMHO is definitely worth a look. Even with minimal contributions like I'm making, it will take their mates who don't start paying in till they are 30 a lot of catching up to get the same pot at 65 (or 70, or whatever it is by then - 99?)
  13. Bunging £60 a month into the old CTF for each of our two, then a further £25 a month each into a pension for them. Started that at birth on the premise that by the time they are in their teens the state pension won't buy a Mars bar and a bag of crisps a week. It will only get them about a 10k pa income if they never pay in any extra, but I figure that once they are earning, adding only a little more each month will build quite nicely. Unless someone does an equitable life on us, that is.
  14. Where do you live - SE london What’s your status - Potential FTB, renting 3 bed house with wife and 2 kids for 1100pcm (would cost about 1600pcm as a 25 year repayment on it with our 40k deposit - house is worth circa 300k) What do you earn? £27,000 pa - am a teacher so is fairly recession proof, wife earns approx 30k part time self employed. Not exactly a stable income hence the fact I don't want to take out a 4.5 x joint income mortgage... = 57k family total Deposit - About 40k (and have 10k for stamp robbery etc saved)
  15. Don't think this is the case - but graduates just think that unlike every other avenue where competition is fierce, if they get a PGCE they are a shoo-in for a job without much effort. 19k is better than a McJob, I suppose. However, as a primary teacher myself, i do think that increassed competition is good, as schools will be able to pick and choose rather than taking on any old person. my eldest kid is just coming up to school age and I'd rather she wasn't taught by some of the flapjacks I have encountered. Basic spelling, grammar and numeracy on their part would be a bonus....
  16. FE and HE are the wasteland of teaching - poor pay and none of the perks they throw at primary and secondary. Mind you, I wouldn't think people are just doing a PGCE for something to do as they recently removed the fees grant. Now costs 3k for the year, I believe (I got through just before this was removed). Mate of mine is just finishing her PGCE and seems to be having a problem finding a primary post in SE London - certainly aren't as many vacancies as there were 2-3 years ago. Although I was quite in demand through being one of the token blokes, so maybe that skewed my perception?
  17. Don't forget to make a quick call to the Inland Revenue to let them know about his business venture on the way out of the door.
  18. Wife had the following press release today... Buy-to-let market restricting first-time buyers The tax relief offered to buy-to-let owners is contributing to the problems faced by first-time buyers and their efforts to get onto the housing ladder. At the opening of the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH)’s Annual Conference and Exhibition, CIH President Paul Diggory has called on the Government to tackle the runaway buy-to-let market. The CIH President argued that the phenomenal growth in buy-to-let investments is contributing to the affordable housing crisis by pricing first-time-buyers out of the market. Information from 2006 indicates that 11 per cent of all new lending in 2006 was in the buy-to-let market – 57 per cent higher than in 2005 and totalling £100 billion. CIH wants Government to remove the tax relief currently available in an effort to direct whatever new affordable housing supply is available actually goes to those people who are struggling to get on the housing ladder. In his opening speech at the UK’s CIH President Paul Diggory: "The Government has acknowledged that there is an acute lack of affordable housing across the country so it does not make sense to still offer tax relief to those who buy, simply to rent. Buy-to-let owners have a financial advantage over those trying to buy their first home, as well as pushing house prices even higher. "We hope the new Chancellor of the Exchequer removes this tax relief as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review due in the autumn. We also want more to be done to halt the rise in the ‘buy-not-to-let’ market. If you wander around some of the new developments in our cities after work you can see there are no lights on – a clear sign that no one actually lives there. Investors can make enough money from rising house prices without having to let the flats to tenants – and they are buying whole floors or even entire blocks off-plan. "Local authorities already have limited powers to tackle some empty homes but this doesn’t go nearly far enough. These empty flats are contributing nothing to the crisis in affordable housing or to the Government’s sustainable communities agenda" , concluded Mr Diggory. ENDS
  19. sadly, the thinking is - I could be paying £200 a month into a pension, where the company could do an equitable life on me, or I could be subsidising my tenant by £200 a month. But I can pop round and reassure myself that the house is still there any time I like. The best way is to take away the tax relief on interest and introduce a 25-30% tax rate for profits (ie higher than income tax as is). That might make people think about putting their pension eggs in another basket...
  20. 33 per cent of net - though that's for a decent size 3 bed terrace, we live in London, I've only been teaching for two years and the wife works twwo days a week as we have 2 kids. If you include the takings from her business venture it comes down to 10% of net, but that's our deposit so I won't.
  21. If you had spent your life on 15k a year you'd bite the hand off someone mental enough to offer you 500k for a two up two down. Shame they're targeting restaurants and not second home owners who are barely there - speaking as someone who grew up in North cornwall, the thing the place has always been missing is a few decent restaurants, rather than pubs serving up combinations of what the catering van brings round.
  22. I've never been keen on Finsbury park - lived in Harringay Green Lanes for 3 years. Then again, I think the big evangelical church outside the Tube and getting God-bothered every time I went to the dentist really didn't do it for me. I can't say I'm an area snob as I am trying to buy in Penge - hardly most people's first choice? remember, Kensington and Hampstead are where the muggers go for easy pickings as they know most people wandering about there have a good watch on them at least...
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