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House Price Crash Forum

madasafrog

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Everything posted by madasafrog

  1. I was shocked to read about the crooked and inept dealings of the LL but then i was also shcoked by the lack of morals of the other posters on this thread. I cant that some believe people think its totally justified to open other peoples mail. Either its upbringing or just a general sign of the lack of integrity of the general public. Maybe i am just old school but i will certainly make sure my children know whats right and wrong. Would you go in someone elses wallet or purse, maybe help yourself to a note or two, maybe a credit card? Where do you draw the line?
  2. What should and does decide the rental value of any property is the market. It should not matter what the landlords costs are, thats his business. If he is making a huge profit or a huge loss on the property then thats down to him. He can only expect a tenant to pay what is the going rate. If there are lots of empty properties for rent and rental values fall to a level that he cant cover his costs then thats his tough luck. He should have been more prudent when he went into BTL business. General inflation should not come into the rental value, only market conditions. The landlord in this case is in the sh1t for sure. Its a tenants market and he is about to shoot himself in the foot. I am neither a bull or a bear but any fool can see that this landlord is probably going to learn the hard way.
  3. New builds and or lack of them may be the deciding factor in how the market rises or falls. If the housing market is falling, developers are less likely to build houses if they are going to lose money on them This will lead to less supply and therefore may push prices back up again. I think that any cooling in the market that we see may only be short term or at least very localised.
  4. How on earth would a company know if the person they were employing was indebted? I know that companies prefer employees who have a family to support for a similar reason but mainly as they know that the person will turn up for work and will look after their job instead of being a "sick note" and being an overall slacker. This has been around for donkeys years. Ask any employer.
  5. I would rather use factual data from over 35years during which there has been financial crisis yet the housing market stayed steady in the long term. I will got for that kind of model instead of one bloke who is not even in this country. These so called economist gurus remind me of mystic meg and her predictions of the lottery. If they are so good at predicting the future, why are they still working for a living. Shouldn't they be so rich from the fruits of their predictions? Have a little search on the web for reports of house prices falling. See how many of them are from 2001 & 2002. You may as well be basing your model on this lady
  6. The tenant would have to be pretty stupid not to realise that from the start.
  7. 1971 Jan £5,774 1981 Jan £28,397 1991 Jan £70,908 2001 January £110,378 2006 January £198,054 (just 5 years) Source 1 Source 2 Are the bumps you are refering to the ones on your head?
  8. Is it just me that looks at this and thinks "Well doesn't he profit from people believing his statement. Isn't it just slightly possible that he is just jumping on the bandwagon in order to drum up more business?". I may be way off the mark here but its just a gut feeling.
  9. Long live the revolution my brother. Insane.. This is the basic law of trade. Someone pays you for something you have and you make a profit. Someone has to provide all these rental properties that people want to live in while they wait for Armageddon or the forthcoming revolution.
  10. Show me some moral standards in business. No such thing. Show me moral standards where brown has raped peoples pensions. Show me moral standards where people dont provide for themselves and leave it to the taxpayer to bring up their families and then provide their pension at the expense of everyone else Just seems that Bateman is exercising a bit of financial prudence by looking to provide for himself in later age. Standard pensions have shown themself to be a risky investment. Even if he provides for himself and is later put into an old persons home, the government will only sell his house to pay for his upkeep, while the person next to him may have paid nothing into a pension and has just spent all his disposable income on beer, fags and big tvs. That person will pay nothing for his room while bateman will be paying for everything he receives. What part of this do you deem to be moral?
  11. If thats the biggest thing i have to worry about then fine with me. Would happily cope with a slow moving tractor and a couple of days muck spreading compared to the attempted break ins to our house and the garage being broken into on a regular basis. I dont worry about the car being stolen and i dont have antisocial neighbours to cope with. Yes i love the tractors and the spread of muck on the fields. My kids are growing up in a better environment with plenty of space and nicer surroundings, but best of all, the schools they are going to are much better than the ones by where we used to live.
  12. What do you seriously think you will be able to buy for £260K in 25 years time? Even if house prices crash, they will later recover and be worth a lot more than your calculating. If you are conservative and take a £150k property it will be roughly worth £300k in ten years time. Ten years after that it will be worth £600k, and then five years after that about £900k. Thats assuming basic inflation taking place and prices doubling every ten years (even though house prices double on average every 7 years). £900k compared to £260k is a bit different. I dont know who your IFA is but i would give him/her the elbow. You need to do a lot of research before you go into this as you only seem to have the basics in place at the moment. Flats may be the riskiest property at the moment regarding a fall in prices. If you lose your equity in a fall in prices, you will struggle to get the same interest rate on your mortgage as you will have no equity left in it. Also consider the impact of getting a nightmare tenant. Look at the costs of maintenance. Can you afford to pay the mortgage with ease if you have it empty? I believe there are still opportunities out there but the risks are now much higher. Avoid flats and avoid new developments. Look for a nice small house in a decent area that is not filled with tenants. Please do some more research before you decide to jump in. There are lots of landlord forums out there. If you have the stomach for it and can learn by other peoples mistakes, then go for it. But also remember, that unless your in it for the very long term, dont bother at the moment. If your up for the long term, remember that your own circumstances may change. Ie, family commitments etc. The housing market has out performed the stock market for many decades and pension funds have halved in last ten years due to browns tax rape, its understandable for people to want to look after their retirement and provide for themselves instead of just relying on the state or their stakeholder pensions that may be nothing by the time they retire. For the record, i have no BTL, its just my own observation on the BTL market. Best of luck.
  13. I moved out to the country nearly three years ago. Having two young children, it was the best decision i could have made. There is a premium paid for living there but its no different than moving from a poor area to a nice area in the city. Its a more desirable place to live than where we lived before. I would rather look out over fields than look at a new development of flats filled with antisocial louts. For that benefit, you pay a premium. The reason that there is a premium is that it more desirable and therefore due to supply and demand, people pay more. Its market forces. The government goes to great lengths to maintain affordable housing in the countryside by restrictive planning laws. For coastal areas that are being flooded by people buying holiday homes that are then left empty, i can understand why that would be frustrating.
  14. Best thing to do is seek advice of a decent IFA. They have access to so many different offers that you will never find on the high street. So many different factors to take into account such as your LTV (how much deposit). You may find that you are able to get a much better deal for your circumstances. BTW, i am not an IFA or EA. Just from my own experience
  15. Has anyone considered the fact that house prices might have been undervalued for a long time and the recent HPI is really a correction in the market? Granted, there are going to be examples of part of the market being overvalued and a downward correction taking place, but overall the housing market is where it should be considering supply and demand. Also, with the credit crunch coming into play, i can understand that it will make it a bit hard for people with a less than rosy credit report getting a mortgage at a cheap rate. Sub Prime mortgages have been around for years. I remember my uncle being an IFA when i was a kid and i remember him talking about mortgages for people with bad credit. All that is happening with the credit crunch is that for the short term, the deals wont be there. In the long term, when the dust settles, the banks will come back to the sub prime. Meanwhile, the prime market will start to get better deals again as the banks will need to lend money in order to make profit. No mortgages or loans, no profit. The charges on little johnnies student overdraft are not going to pay for those big offices for the banks. What we see at the moment is a temporary blip. The market will become a bit unsettled for the next 6 months until the sub prime factor is sorted out and the banks know what losses they have and where these losses are. Once that is over, the market will continue to move on but at a bit more rational rate. I think the heavy HPI is over for the moment, but i doubt that there will be any major crash. Any drops in house prices will quickly be reversed. A brief note to all those wishing deeply for a house price crash......if the house you are looking to buy has fallen 10% in price but the cost of the mortgage to buy it has risen 20%, where have you won? Especially as you may have waited 5 years before deciding to buy. Dont worry about the price of your house today unless you are looking to sell it today. Your profit or loss only comes about when you sell the house.
  16. It was very slight, just .1% or .2% Source Sky Business News You really need a decent IFA to find the better deals out there. Most of the deals with half decent interest rates come with horrendous arrangement fees which totally negates any savings on monthly repayments. I am glad i am not a new BTL who is on the edge. IT could be quite serious.
  17. Flipping must be the most riskiest part of BTL industry. It has seen off quite a few serious BTL people. Too many overpriced apartments coming into the market. On my way home from work there is a forest of EA signs on these developments. People cant seem to get rid of them. I am neither a bull or a bear but on the subject of flipping on new developments with apartments (or flats as we call them in wolverhampton), people are really going to catch a cold.
  18. Thats nice to hear. Most of the bears on here want blood and lots of it.
  19. It seems that the BTL industry is no longer a "cottage industry" for the "shrewd" individual. Its now corporate!!!!!! BTW, before any major bears try and slaughter me, i did put shrewd in speech marks and in italic
  20. It appears that any rate decrease may be offset by the banks increasing their own rates. If there is a .25% cut on the BoE rate, its doubtful people will see it in the new mortgage rates. If someone is already on a tracker or standard variable, then they will feel the benefit. New people coming into the market or getting new deals on existing mortgage will find that due to the credit crunch, lending rates will have increased therefore wiping out any cuts by the BoE
  21. It would be interesting to hear how much they offer against the market value of the house. 70, 80%? By tracking this, it could be an indication as to how sentiment is towards the housing market.
  22. Hooray. Thankyou thankyou thankyou. BEST - Bacon Egg Sausage & Tomato
  23. Seriously, what are the chances of having a Glossary of Terms thread that is pinned so people like me can actually read a thread and understand what on earth is being said. What is an OP? I understand the basics: HPI = House Price Inflation HPC = House Price Crash (i hope i got that right or i will get struck off) EA= Estate Agent BTL= Buy To Let BLT = Bacon Lettuce Tomato Seriously. I think a thread with lets the newbies in on whats actually being said would help the board out a great deal.
  24. Then there is the opinion that people may sit on their investment and ride it out. If they have been investing in property for capital gain, they will try and keep hold of that property until in regains its value. Only if they are in dire straits will they sell.
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