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House Price Crash Forum


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About stewart_h

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  1. QUOTE: Oh my G*D! Is this guy an estate agent or what?!? Spot the old "prices will fall everywhere else, except where I tell you to buy..." routine. Also, Stew, how the hell are you explaining a 100-300k market being unaffected if a 400k property is reduced to, say, £300k?? ----------# Nope not an estate agent. Im not telling you where to invest at all. Do what you like mate. As for your question ,, how else would you like me to prhase it? The current properties that are in 100-300 mark will continue to sel well, even if the market dips and i dont think they will dip as much as say the... the current 400-800 market which i think will drop the most. At that point then ofcourse they may sell at 300k thats self evident. My post is about what to do now if u r buying. All im saying here is if someone is buying at present then i woudlnt put it into properties currently valued at 400-800 as i think they will suffer the most drastic changes. If you dont agree or dont care then thats fine.
  2. Quite right, i hadnt noticed that drop down box on registration, will dutifly change. Apolagies issued. As for coming back to admit if i was wrong. Happy to, stating my observations is not a matter of fact just something for debate. I predicted the dotcom failures and profited from them and managed to avoid the dotcom crash, and my "mad rumblings" on property have made me 700,000 in approx 10 years with a tiny investment og 50k. So ive sold up and I am just completing on a 3 storey 5 bed house with sea views for an obsenely small amount of money. So im not feeling too foolish yet... This is not an exercise in gloating I am just on here explaining what i am doing incase other people are in simular boats and want alternative viewpoints.
  3. quote: Are you mad? Who will rush to buy in a falling market? I think u will be suprised. There are considerable amounts of people who have sold uin the last 18 months p and are waiting for propertys to drop to an acceptable levelt to re invest. It isnt going to crash like last time that the whole point! The idea of "being mad" to invest in proeprty just isnt going to re-arise this time around. People have been sold the dream too long, and any crash is going to be met by people who are on this very forum. Not thinking its mad to buy, but biding their time till its right to buy. This time it isnt about being mad to invest its about people being priced out by their own mortgages. The 100-300k market will remain buoyant as the interest rate rises but a lot of that wont be 1/2 bed flats. It will cbe cheaper property out the hour commute of lonodn. I raise the issue of 1/2 bed flats because i believe they will become affordable enough for the wise investor to do both. To buy a 300k house and a cheap flat for a foothold in london if they have to work there. I bought in 1994 for 29k I have systematically doubled my price on every one of the four houses i have bought. I have sold up this month at record highs. And have acrued 700k in profit on a total of 50k mortgage. And I am now happy to now buy out of london in areas being redevloped where a 5 bed house costs 350k in a loccally regarded area. I havent got it wrong in the last 15 years, and my radar has told me to sell. Invest into a PROEPR HOME and work remotely, and then when the crash happens i will invest in a small 1 bed for commution purposes. Yet despite this i maintain what im saying smaller drops in 100-330k market, and huge drops in 400-800K (specifiaclly the current 600-800k market). As for purchasing 150k you can, and SE london is where to look, many areas such as dartford and orpington are getting long needed cash injections and transport improvements. Post crash flats athat are on now for 190k in lewisham etc will be back around 150k mark. As for some of the insults on here, just grow up.
  4. just because someone dares to disagree with a point you haven't even made at the time of writing doesnt make them mad, a 150k 2 bedroom flat in an ok area of london may lose 15-30k in my view the 600k 2 bed cottage in blackheath will lose a considerable amount more than that. in terms of my recommendations, im specifcally talking about people who have to live/work in london and want to invest soon. if u dont live in london i wouldnt go near it! but i think the future is bringing, smaller week day pads in london where mum/dad stop 2/3 days w eek, and proper family homes a few hours out. And increased working from home. and im sorry i really do thinkthat it is the greed of the baby boomers that caused the market increase, take hurstpierpoint for example where i tried to buy recently, some of them have been putting their proeprty on the market AGAINST estate agent advice 100k over market value. Ofcourse they didnt get it but they did increase the market in that area by about 30%. They have been using their property as quick fixes for pension oversights, also wishing a nest egg for little johnny FTB. Houses prices have been based on what people want in terms of what they need to retire, buy a house, help their kids FTB. Unwittingly causing a mass increase. So yes i blame the boomers (and the BOe but thats covered in another thread). maybe im wrong, im not here to prove antything over than offer a view.
  5. I apolagise in advance if im stepping on anyone toes, I havent read all the posst here, so sorry if im repeating what has been said but i wanted topost what I think is going to happen. MY PREDICTIONS I believe the market is going to crash, but unlike the late 80s / early 90s, I think its going to crash fragmentally. I believe the 100-300k market will remain fairly buoyant. - The influx of EU workers, the fact that "mummy and daddy" keep puttin gin their pockets for first time buyers (despite the fact said parents caused this ddrama through their wish to retire on their proeprty value), the influx of cheaper new builds. The 800k+ market will not change much - People inthis bracket often have the cash in the bank andhave traded previously succesfully on the propertymarket at high prices with good profit. The 400-800k Market.... oh dear !- I think this is where its gonna hurt. We have had an influx of eBay "last minute" madness fever where people have basically been paying upwwards of 650k for properties that can tangibly not be worth more than 400k. And therein lies a problem, a shitty 3 bed semi detahced is exacelty that. And when the purse strings start to get stretched with looming interest rises and people are forced to really think about their investments they are going to look at what they have bought and tremble. THere is no resale in many of these properties if harsh times hit. The belief that houses are running out is entirely fanricated, there is more than enough property at present and EU influx on the whole are taking the lower end of the market where there is more than enough new builds arising. Yet its these 400-800k properties that will suffer the most from the interest rises, 8% at 180k is manageable, try that at 700k for a run down cottage in greenwich! Reposessions increased dramatically at the end of last year and will continue to do so. BUT there is a pproblem that when prices drop there are many many peopel waiting in the wings, so i dont think the price drop will be as huge as wanted. Left alone it could reach 35% but people with twitchy fingers will curb that. I also think the fragmentation will become regionalised, with house sizes, levels of pollution, schools, regeneration becoming bigger and bigegr issues than they already are. Expect once sleepy towns to become popular again. Anyway maybe im wrong, but i predict its gonna hit very soon. And in this fragmeneted way. I would say April - July is gonna be an inteersting time. I've kept his fairly unofficial and coloquial cause i dont believe i need to preach to the converted. what do you think? My advice (who the hell am I? haha) for london workers: dont buy in 400-800k market in london. create a 500k portfolio of: if you have to work in london, invest in smaller 1/2 bed properties in the parts of london due for redevlopment. and then buy a large weekend detached pad out of the city (100-390k). I would tell you where but u would probably go and gazump me
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