Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

cakehead

Members
  • Posts

    225
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by cakehead

  1. The Holme Valley is a better bet if you work in Manchester, Leeds or Sheffield and are under 75 years of age. Cheaper, more cosmopolitan, still very pretty with a high achieving state school. Lots of relocators so none of the parochialism or empty second homes and a thriving entertainment and arts scene.
  2. One of the main differences today is there are no run down properties left to do up. Twenty years ago if you were prepared to take on a project you got a house in a nice area cheap. In 2007 barns around here - i.e. a few walls in a field with planning permission - were selling for more or less what the same thing would be renovated as a sole occupancy. The only profit for a developer was converting it into multiple dwellings. A lot of people who'd done very nicely out of development over the years were left holding those babies when the music stopped.
  3. Spot on. Britain is a mass of micro-markets, not a single one. Every town has a millionaire's row, a village or street where the local boy or girl made good shows off their status. They're highly resistant to slumps because of supply and demand. Below that are places that are unusually picturesque and/or have good transport links (like the Hope Valley), or exceptional state schools, or whatever. Beneath that is 'the market'. Some places are distorted by things like Premiership wages and support shops and infrastructure that are unthinkable two miles down the road.
  4. Hope valley is prime commuter territory, a genuine mountain wilderness on your doorstep plus a train line into central Manchester and Sheffield in minutes. Some of the stickiest prices in the country and when the market's hot, almost unobtainable. And no, I don't live there but I've looked on and off for twenty years. Not surprised at the quick sale, it's where every Manc who's made a buck has their first or second home.
  5. Early 50s, house almost paid for but school age kids mean I can't live in a caravan in France and raise veg like we want to. Wife high rate tax payer, me a writer with sporadic income. One of the more interesting changes is the status of property developers from sad hippies who like doing up ramshackle six bedroom town houses in run down areas like say, Spitalfields, to social pariahs who like living in fancy areas like, say, Spitalfields. Thirty years or more ago people who spent their weekends sanding floors and re-pointing walls were pitied, now they're everything that's wrong with the world. One thing I've learnt in half a century is a house, owned or rented, will not of itself provide happiness. Life's too important to worry about markets and economics.
  6. A neighbour at our former house had been a salaried employee of British Rail, was fired, then re-hired as a consultant at a multiple of his original wage, enabling him to buy the adjoining cottage as a holiday home. The sell off of the railways has been a farce and only works because unprecedented amounts of public money has been sunk to make them perform. Privatising national infrastructure like rail was an entirely ideological move but as every fule kno, roads are an investment, rail requires a subsidy. Ensuring all speculative builders on former state owned brownfield provided an element of social housing would do more to ensure a house price correction than any other factor.
  7. The destruction of social housing began when council tenants like my parents were offered their rather nice house for six thousand quid, about a seventh of its market value, under Thatcher's Right to Buy. In the early 1980s their estate looked like a clip from Gardener's World, indeed apart from the cars it appeared virtually as it had done in the 1950s. Now it looks like a shanty town. They didn't buy and fortunately never lived long enough to see their road become the desolate tip it is now. Social housing is now a synonym for sink estate. It doesn't have to be that way and the free market is responsible for the current state of affairs, as well as the consequences for the rest of the housing sector, as individuals try to flee the stigma at any price.
  8. If VI means someone looking to buy at present, that'll be me. I couldn't give a hoot for bull and bear sentimentalists when I'm about to spend my own cash. I want to know what the market's really doing and IMHO and pretty please, the sector I want into isn't tumbling as promised.
  9. The realities of the market place? If you want to get on the lower rungs of the housing ladder (sic) the next couple of years might be a better time to do so than any since C2004. If you're flexible about where you live, streets, school catchment, transport links, ditto. If you've got a shed load of money to throw at something you'll likely get a million knocked off. If you want something that ticks all the boxes I suspect you (or indeed I) won't be digging much less deep than recent times.
  10. My recollection of that period was slightly different. Prices peaked late '88 and drops continued until '91, mostly in new builds, grotty terraces and the over-heated luxury market. Anyone who'd survived till '91 hung on till '96. I looked from 1991 until 1996 in the middle sector, quality georgian and victorian villas, nice 3/4 bed semis and detached in good areas, etc, and I can promise you there were no bargains to be had. Anything that looked the part was a money pit, rotten roofs, subsidence, whatever. I've no idea whether the current shake out will prove to be the same but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. By crash I think people imagine a (choose your own percentage) fall across the board that will give them access to their dream pad. The fact remains that people in quality housing are, generally speaking, best equipped to weather financial storms. The bottom end and the fur coat no knickers market are where any likelihood of a crash will be. Lest anyone suggests I'm a VI, I'm about to start looking again in a similar market sector and I'm not optimistic.
  11. That may well be so, the question is will my prediction be correct? I'm no economist, not even an amateur but I need to see an engine of change that will precipitate a crash and I'm not currently doing so. For it to occur I believe the pain would have to move beyond the me-too buyers (sheeple as you guys call them) of the noughties who are over leveraged and into the pockets of those with equity in their property. There'll be victims in the current shake out, but the public sector will see those nearing retirement getting the push (mortgages paid years ago), staff moving on not being replaced and lack of new graduate jobs. Then you have to factor in inflation which will rise in the next few years. Stagnation is the likeliest scenario. I bought a house in '88 and sold in '91 because everyone said there'd be bargains. I looked hard for six years but better properties hung the same sign with the same price tags until the market began to move. People hunkered down and they'll do it again. I just think the stagnant period will be longer and things won't swing either way (across national averages) to see a full on crash. In ten years we'll be having a similar discussion.
  12. None. Don't watch TV or take a newspaper and rarely listen to the radio (okay a little Radio 3). One doesn't need 24 hr news exposure to realise domestic party politics is built on a few shibboleths, one of which is house ownership as a barometer of inclusion. The only way house prices will crash - by which I mean an across the board return to the prices of a decade ago - is for the general public to lose interest in property ownership. If that background fizz goes flat there's the potential for prices to drop, till it does there are too many potential buyers hoping to step in long before a true pricing realignment. I see no loss of interest in house price fluctuations and consequently little hope for an abandonment of market sentiment on property. The number seriously over-leveraged and the houses they inhabit are not substantial enough to outweigh those with sufficient equity to balls it out for five years, hence my cynicism towards political intervention having a meaningful impact. There's no doubt UK property is over-priced, the question is by how much and how long it'll take to find its level. No jam tomorrow, ten year's time, who knows?
  13. It's always shocking when people believe one of the main political parties will introduce some instinctive fairness the previous incumbent left out. The coalition will fight tooth and nail to maintain existing house values as far as possible, knowing their next term of office relies on an illusion of normality. For that reason I see a re-run of the early 90s with big drops in crap housing and targetted new builds and the rest of the market sitting on its hands. There'll be a decline in values but averaged across the country as a whole and in all sectors, it'll take donkey's years to realise. The kind of crash where an FTB can expect 30 - 50% off their home of choice ain't gonna happen anytime soon.
  14. House prices will come down but it won't be pretty. There's little point a house being 40% more affordable if you've lost your job and are 100% less able to pay for it.
  15. Not sure about that. There are other countries better prepared to weather the storm and some have better social contracts. If the worst happens subsistence living in rural France is more pleasant that urban UK.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.