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Spoony

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Posts posted by Spoony

  1. The least capable Governor in the Bank's entire 300yr history. Wonder what he'd have made off with if he'd done his job even semi-competently? A national disgrace.

    Indeed but I don't think this will be widely accepted for at least another 100 years, when people look back and see what madness the period 1997- 2013+ was

  2. Yeah well, the national debt is still rising, the interest costs are rising and there is no credible plan to reverse this except sit back and hope for something to come along.

    Meanwhile the debt hits 1.4 trillion or so, interest payments reach at least 70bn assuming yields don't rise, what do you think is going to happen?

    I don't know what's going to happen but I know what Osborne and Carney hope will happen: The UK will feed off from a recovery in the USA and Europe, tax receipts will rise enabling a gov debt reduction. GDP will rise, house prices will rise, all industries which are involved in the housing market will do well again contributing to a rise in GDP and everything will magically work out along with their re-election. Maybe some more inflation to reduce the gov debt and consumer debt. Sound right? And will it happen?

  3. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23692996

    I'm glad the ONS clarified that point, that 4000 less means it's broadly unchanged. If this was the trend of 4000 per quarter how many years would it take to hit the target of just 7% unemployed?

    Still with more people working it can only boost house prices.

    Yes I noticed all media news today could not cover this story without mentioning that the unemployment rate is still above the 7% target so interest rates will not go up!!

    Why is this ?

  4. IMHO they will feed the ponzi at least until the election ... well that's the plan. The big question is whether they have started the sprint to the finish line too early. If George was doing this in a years time to get HPI for early in the new year with a few months to the election then I can see the reasoning. But with two years to go (OK 20 months) these action must work or George is dead in the water and the election is lost. They need HPI at any cost and I do mean any cost ... so expect MIRAS before long.

    It could all blow up in their faces within a few months if prices in London start to fall and that must be the worry, so they need the rest of the country to take up the slack and get some HPI going.

    This HTB scheme is todays MIRAS replacement really if you think about it. If they bring in MIRAS on top of this then this must be the most rigged government interfered housing market in the world. There seems to be no lengths they won't go to to prop up prices. It has to be because all the MP's and local government have 2 or 3 + houses and are in BTL up to their necks. In 1990 the BTL mortgage wasn't around and people had more morals, so a crash was allowed.

  5. +1

    Most of the reports that I've seen regarding HPI over the last few days have pointed out that the bubble is re-inflating.

    There has also been talk of dropping H2B part two on existing properties. I want it to go ahead so that the HPC can be sooner rather than later.

    I share your sentiment but as some have pointed out on here, all that may happen is that when prices do crash again they will only crash to the 2013 prices we have today, so no gain - not the 2003 levels that they should be and we all want.

  6. OK only 18 properties on help to buy in Buckinghamshire linked in from the official HTB website. The rest are shared ownership with service charges. Take this one.....

    http://www.catalysthomebuy.co.uk/homeseekers/property/3029

    Bedroom Detached House in The Steeples, Aylesbury Vale

    Scheme Help to Buy

    Available Thursday 11th April

    Full Market Value £314,995.00 :o

    Plot 66 - Cornell The Steeples

    Description

    A lovely light entrance hall leads you to a wide lounge with an elegant bay window, or to the downstairs cloakroom. The spacious kitchen family dining room has a separate utility, a glazed bay and french doors to the garden. On the first floor, you'll find 4 bedrooms; a master with en suite, 2 double rooms, a family bathroom and a single bedroom that could be used as a study.

    Property Cost

    Scheme: Help to Buy

    Full market property value £314,995.00

    Initial share in the property 80%

    Value of Equity Loan £62,999.00

    Likely required deposit £15,749.75

    Initial proportion of the property funded with mortgage and deposit £251,996.00

    Monthly Costs

    Service Charge £0.00

    Address

    Plot 66 - Cornell The Steeples

    Calvert Green

    Buckinghamshire MK18 3FS

    "Equity loan fees

    You won’t be charged loan fees for the first 5 years of owning your home.

    In the 6th year, you’ll be charged a fee of 1.75% of the loan’s value. After this, the fee will increase every year. The increase is worked out by using the Retail Prices Index plus 1%.

    Your Help to Buy agent will contact you before the fees start, to set up monthly payments with your bank. You’ll also be sent a statement about your loan each year.

    Fees don’t count towards paying back the equity loan."

    So 5 years on from starting to pay a fee you will be paying nearly 2.25% on this loan (assuming rpi +1% and that rpi stays at 4%) - £1411ish a year, not much really, but a £250K mortgage on top?! When rates go normal....

  7. Yes, but that's the way it is, try not to get uptight about it, these things take time with many false dawns along the way. My best guess is that they may manage to keep prices artificially high until about the end of the decade or at least until after the election. If they don't it won't be for want of trying. Patience.

    Patience... I have had 10 years of patience. I don't have another 7 years+ I am seriously quite worried about what to do now

  8. Selling pickaxes during a gold rush

    [b]If[/b] house prices rising are so good for the economy then why not cash in and buy some Carpet Right shares? You don't have to own property to make money from rising prices.

    There again if you do not think rises are sustainable you could always try shoring the market STR, rent etc.

    Was thinking the same thing, or maybe god forbid..... join the party and buy in the UK hopefully with HTB (if I am eligible?)

  9. Nice but no privacy. Anyway slightly back to the topic in a way that I seem to do all the time......

    I was talking to my hairdresser the other day, she was saying how she lives with her parents again and she needs to get on the ladder...but its so expensive. "I need to find a rich bloke" she says. Not what I wanted to hear. I was thinking of asking her out next time. I hope the rich bloke for a house was just a comment in passing. This girl is 24

  10. In the future the price of houses will be inextricably bound to the political machinations of power- they will rise or fall on the prevailing view concerning when-or if- state support for buyers will be tapered or removed.

    They probably will keep 'help to buy' going until the housing market tanks and 'buying a house' will once again become dirty words. Then nobody will be touching it with a bargepole and it will make no difference if they cancel it or not. How many years until then though who knows.

  11. Sure, the pendulum will eventually swing back. One day the sheer number of renters will create an irresistible political force to repeal the current landlord friendly legislation, which in turn will trigger material house price declines. But that day is at least twenty years away.

    Let's face it, the general expectation of this forum has simply been wrong.

    That's because the rules of the game have been changed. Those who say repeated can kicking and 0% rates will last 20 years may well be right. 20 years is all too late for me, and a lot here I would presume. This is a good thread. Today feels rather like it did on HPC forums in 2006 just before the crash started. It was looking hopeless and we were looking even more like mad doomongers.

  12. I've got a 3 year respite from all this misery - as you can see, I've been here forever as well.

    I now live at a house owned by my boomer parents - they purchased my grandmothers house in the original right to buy scheme back in the 80's - the house has been done out and I can save now for 3 years, but I don't expect much to change myself in the market by that time. They quite simply will stop at nothing to keep this beast alive. I'm voting UKIP at the next election only because they will deal with the 'supply' problem by stopping immigration which essentially is what keeps this pozi scheme running. I simply won't vote LIBLABCON again, they're all masks on the same face.

    That's my theory too. Lifelong conservative voter, never again

  13. Hi

    Well I have just set one up. Need 2 Direct Debits (get cashback) and £500 paid in each month, also £2 per month fee but they will pay 3% on up to £20k (=~£300 after tax). We'll see.

    Anyone else tried it?

    Yes. I put 20K into it, that gets rid of that part of the low rates problem... Still lower than RPI though but it reduces the problem. I just told my utility company to take £100 a month (even though I won't use it) £100 a month pays the £2 fee to have the 123 account. The rest is profit. If I go way into surplus I will change my DD to another bank account, get that in place then ask for an overpayment refund.

  14. No shit sherlock. That idiot new Arch Bishop of Canterbury said something similar the other day before he made himself look even more of an idiot than he did before about the Wonga thing. What these clowns don't get is that they should be blaming the BoE and government for creating so much inflation and directing their anger in regards to that back to the people who made it happen.

  15. Aberystwyth had no parking enforcement for a year after it was taken out of the police's hands. The local Chamber of Commerce was soon howling for the council to employ enforcement bods. Cars were just parked any old where, the traffic was blocked as often as not, people started avoiding the town.

    Try driving along a main route into Cardiff past the bingo hall when the old and idle are being picked up by rellies and taxis, parked along 200-400 yards of double yellows. Takes forever.

    Some parts of Spain have no parking restrictions you can park where you want. No problems and it seems to work with no people parking stupidly. Why can't people in the UK use their common sense>?

  16. You are absolutely right!

    Very well put.

    Even low yielding sterling savings accounts are safer than UK houses. We can wait. No hurry.

    Meanwhile we have flexibility, and freedom. Not bad. :)

    To the OP: You had many great replies in this thread, like posts #47 #93 #169, and many others.

    Regarding relationships, when issues of money and properties come up, I would just give a short explanation of your position, tell her that you are aware of data showing that properties are over-valued (more so in London/SE/SW), like prices/earnings, that you do have some savings, but prefer to wait until IRs normalise and house prices come back down to more normal levels. If she is sceptical you can show some links, data, articles, etc. Then, if your friend is unable to understand your quite logical and prudent attitude, well... in that case, would you really want this person as a life-partner, and mother of your children?

    I have to reply to this. The ex concerned used to often say that if I keep saying something is going to happen for long enough then it probably will. That is an arguement starter as she would not listen to calmly explained reason. Her problem was she could not wait any more years. A lot of women are the same. But as wherebee said about finding the one who understood about the cost of credit, some would understand. Its hard to find beauty and brains, lots are already taken.

    What a thread this is turning out to be btw, keep it coming. Hard hitting subjects like women combined with HPC and life advice I thank you all for the contributions. I think a lot have come back to HPC forums after Osbournes HTB PR last week. It certainly triggered off a lot of frustration in me

  17. Spoony - I've held off commenting to see what others have to say. My view is that there is a lot of wisdom in this thread. A lot of ****** too, mind. My ten nuggets of advice are:

    1. Be careful not to fall into the trap of houseowning defining who you are - otherwise you will feel 'life on hold'. I miss having a house, but it does not define me

    2. Recognise that you cannot blame yourself for things outside your control. I doubt more than 1 or 2 people on HPC saw just how batshit crazy a Tory lead coalition would be in kicking the can down the road

    3. Recognise that renting gives you freedom - I am earning 5x what I did in 2007, and paying a tax rate of 15%. Only possible because I moved across three continents. If you stick in one place through habit, then you are giving up one of the major advantages of renting, which is moving to where the money is. Distance does not destroy family or friend relationships, by the way - often you work harder and they get better

    4. Get fit. It sorts the mind, and gives you energy to build a real life

    5. Put yourself out there to meet new mates and new birds. When I was newly single I was working on both almost every day. Found a great woman in the end, but numbers do matter. The biggest difference to my previous relationships is that this one understands the value of money and how destructive debt is. I made it clear from the get go to about 10 women in five years who were possible relationships, and 9 did not get how a dollar spent today on credit is a week more working when you are 60. 1 did. I married her. I must have met 50-100 other women in that time, via internet dating, work, random meets on the street, hobby clubs, sports clubs (but NOT bars). I also have mates in 5 countries now, whch gives us a network for holidays and intelligent talk

    6. A strict five year plan never works. Events, dear boy, events. All I do is have a loose goal 'I would like a house I can feel at home in and a garden big enough for vegies and fruit trees'. I do not know where or when, but that goal keeps me sane. Also keeps me saving hard. I could end up in UK, EU, Oz, NZ, Asia......

    7. Diversify. If things do turn bad, governments and banks WILL take your money. Spread the love.

    8. Don't be a miser whilst you save. We spend a lot on travelling to see family and friends, but very little on material things, so we can still save - but we don't feel that we miss out. NB It's also not on credit.

    9. Don't sweat the small stuff. Idiots, parking tickets, etc, just think how in a million years no one will care

    10. You ARE right not to have taken part in the insanity. You are unhappy, but can get happy if you think differently. If things go badly wrong, as they may do (or may not do), there are MILLIONS of people in the UK who will be shattered and destroyed mentally until the day they die, because the debt they took on will cause them to lose everything. You are not at risk of that.

    Finally, have a *****. Often makes everything seem better*, and decreases your chance of prostrate.

    *as long as you don't use horse pron or something that makes you feel dirty....

    Thanks for all that. So you like a fair few here moved abroad. I wish I could do that, I am stuck in in my job or its a pay cut. Even to another part of the UK

  18. I genuinely don't get the people on this site. It's like you're putting your lives on hold waiting to be proved right.

    Seriously, take a step back and look at yourself. You're almost forty. If you don't get on with it soon you'll be looking at mortgages below a 25 year term and then things are going to get impossible for you. I hope that you have a seriously good pension because in twenty years time when you start to think about retiring, you're going to realise that you're f*cked.

    There comes a point when you just have to start living your life. If you don't to buy a house that's fine, but stop wailing about the unfairness of it all. We all have the same opportunities - you just have to work for it.

    I'm 33 and have just purchased my first house. It was on for £250k, and we got it for £225k. It needs work and the mortgage is about £200 more than my rent was, but I'm very happy with the situation as it gives me a direction that I'm happy to go in. In 25 years I'll have paid it off and will be able to live whatever life I have left with some level of security. I also won't have spend the majority of my life waiting for a train that's never going to arrive. You need to roll the dice at some point, or leave the casino. That crash you have been waiting for has never happened, and it isn't going to happen in the way you are depending on it to. You lost the hand - don't go bankrupt on the game of life just because of money. It's clearly ruining your life and turning you into bitter and twisted individuals.

    I think you have the best intentions. But your thinking is of a newbie who I think does not understand the laws of economics, the history of house price booms and busts. I feel like I am preaching to someone at my workplace or something or someone who has joined from the singing pig or MSE. But I shall go on. It is rampant house price inflation and inflation of other assets causing a bubble which was fuelled by an uncontrolled speculative credit bubble of large proportions. This has caused an abnormal housing bubble, again speculative and very large which did start to fall a fair bit thus proving this site and others right but then the QE and 0% rates were used and the falls stopped. Not many of us predicted this would happen but all it has done is put off the inevitable. Never have so many tools and schemes been used to keep house price high. What is happening now is not normal You approach of buying a house and it will go up and in 25 years.... this is a traditional approach which I don't think is suited for the times we are now living in. Yes it worked for your parents etc but that was then this is now.

    The big question is what will happen next?

    10 + years of small falls and rises evening out to be a real terms fall until correction is completed?

    Or a trigger to remove the support over which the government will no control over this time. End of QE, Double digit inflation, interest rates at 4%, this will be a nightmare for those especially who stretched to buy at these prices with HTB etc. Its like nobody HAS LEARNT A THING from all the bail outs and financial crisis.

  19. I'm 41 and have jut been through a divorce after 18 years of marriage. It doesn't matter though, I'm now free and for the first time in my life - happy!

    You're using the lack of a HPC as the barrier between you and happiness, it's not. The barrier is you.

    More wisdom. Maybe that is true. I suppose there is nothing stopping me getting out there and living more. I just hope if I meet a new gf she won't want to buy a bloody house!

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