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House Price Crash Forum

Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. That would be absolutely true if the banks actually want the mortgage business; don't see too much sign of that ATM, if anything it's the opposite. In just the last month Nationwide have raised rates to stem demand, and LBG have severely tightened criteria across the board - Lloyds, C&G, Halifax, BOS. So that's about half the UK mortgage market, acting to reduce lending
  2. WTF? £497K profit? who is ripping off who exactly? Now you are really taking the pi55! Awooga!!!!!!!!!!!!! Get this: The house never WAS worth £500K, just a few over leveraged idiots paid way too much for houses over the last couple of years creating an illusion that ALL such houses were worth that much.
  3. Interesting viewpoint, no bubble AND no crash; have your cake and eat it. You could be Chancellor with an opinion like that
  4. Any commercial advantage would constitute state aid which illegal under EU law, a point well proven in case law. For example a Belgian regional government was forced to stop paying Ryanair to fly to their airport, as this gave Ryanair an unfair competitive advantage over other airlines flying to other airports in the same country It's one thing to bail out a Bank under the auspices of 'financial stability' but quite another for a government to give one bank a significant commercial advantage over others in the form of enhanced funding for mortgage lending. If NR are given any significant commercial advantage over other lenders the government may be overruled by the EU. I would guess that the BSA would be first in the queue to bring a case to Brussels; the Building Societies are already pi55ed about the IR cuts and now the government tries to pull the rug from under their mortgage lending market.
  5. Ah...thanks! One favourite indicator of mine is schools. Have you noticed how many UK schools are closing down, due to lack of kids in the area? At some point the kids that previously went to these schools lived somewhere nearby, but the houses have not gone away! Areas where many schools have been shut must therefore by definition tend to have lower occupancy ratios, so my prediction is that the same areas will fall hardest in the wake of the 'boomer bulge'.
  6. Afraid you really 'Haventaclue' about this. Demographic shift is the key and the government have completely failed to take this into account in their predictions. Britain's housing market has one of the lowest occupancy ratio in the world, due to ageing population: 75% of over 65s in the UK live in units with 3+ beds. As this older population dies and downsizes, the housing market will inevitably reallocate to the younger demographic, who's natural occupancy ratios are much higher. Young people are many times more likely to share a house than pensioners; when a young couple buy the house of a single dead pensioner the occupancy ratio doubles and if they have children it rises further still. So a relatively small number of house transfers can have a dramatic impact on the overall occupancy ratio, an effect that will be massively compounded by the sheer scale of the 'boomer bulge'. So I think it's pretty safe to predict that we will see a very rapid rise in occupancy ratios in the UK over the next 10 years, and higher occupancy = lower property demand per head of population. So birth rate is somewhat irrelevant, but in any case it is only rising from a very low base. UK births-deaths is still negative and set to decline very rapidly over the next 10 years, and at the very same time unfettered immigration is becoming politically untenable.
  7. And therefore by definition most at risk of differential settlement. Were the party walls underpinned too?
  8. Tis definitely just 3 quids, done it many times before: Link You don't need the title plan (costs £3 extra) the Mortgage details are on the title register. Also beware that the servers usually go down for several hours after midnight. Example title register
  9. I agree While birth rate has increased since the millennium, housing forecasts consistently fail to factor the over-accommodation inherent in the make-up of household sizes and the boomer effect. IIRC something like 75% of over 65s live in family homes with 3,4,5+ beds. This situation is clearly not sustainable, health care, financial constraints and death will conspire to force many to downsize over the next few years, releasing a massive pent-up supply of family homes within the next 10-20 years Just look at schools - they are closing all over the country due to lack of kids. This is not consistent with a long term housing shortage! superb! I will have to remember that one!
  10. Cheaper than a full scale nationalisation, and of course much cheaper for Lloyds A pertinent question, but I guess there will be some sort of creative deal to prevent ex-employees from defaulting en-mass. I am just speculating, but it does not take a genius to do the maths. LTSB have cut 17k from their own workforce over the last 3 years, do you think they will give a toss about employees of HBOS?
  11. Long predicted on HPC, lenders turn a blind eye when it suits, but when the tables are turned they will apply the law to the letter
  12. I know, but don't worry your secret is safe with me. And good luck, I think you got out just in time.
  13. No, this is just the start. Next comes the hatchet job on HBOS, politically very sensitive due to the concentration of operations in Labour Heartlands How convenient that the loses were 'much larger than expected' sparking rumours of government takeover, putting the government on the back foot. Now LBG are free to cull 2/3 of HBOS workforce 'in the interests of the taxpayer'
  14. London's tube is teeming with very fat rats, but they only come out at night when the trains are not running. On the met line it's not unusual to see a whole pack go scurrying when you approach an empty platform at 3AM.
  15. But check this one out from the comments: No Subprime in the UK my ar5e........
  16. So are you seriously saying that British banks with Stirling balance sheets will be baled by the FED, the ECB and the BoJ?
  17. If you owe the world a million dollars, you have a problem But if you owe the world 4.4 trillion dollars, the world has a problem....
  18. This is all good advice; it is well worth doing a load of viewings just to get a 'feel' for the market and the buying process. It may even be worth telling the EAs that you are not very serious, they will no doubt be glad just to be able to arrange viewings. I did this in 1997, the EAs were more than happy for us to go sightseeing round their inventory, because I guess they thought we would purchase at some point and they wanted any potential buyer on board. You also need to learn how not to loose your head, people have a tendency to dismiss rational doubts due to emotions, the classic being choosing to ignore slightly dubious surroundings because the house and garden seem amazing for the price. So it's good to look at plenty of places with absolutely no intention of buying, because with the benefit of hindsight you will be able reflect on the fact that you might have moved somewhere that was not so nice as you first thought
  19. In a word or three, carry trade unwind Japan has had massive offshore savings since ZIRP Now the rest of the world is moving fast towards zero and beyond these savings are headed home, because there is no longer any reason to keep them offshore.
  20. I agree with your comments but you cite two very extreme examples. Global monoliths such as Cisco/MS tend to rape their customers in any way possible, because if you are ignorant enough to buy their overpriced inferior products, then obviously you are stupid enough to pay for training too! Smaller or less established vendors often offer free training to differentiate their solution. And free training can be a deal maker; Huaewi winning the massive BT21CN contract is one good example, Airbus & Easyjet is another.
  21. Sorry but IMO you are talking utter BS, there is an entire industry dedicated providing commercial training funded mostly by employers or vendors who often provide free training to staff of companies who purchase their products. Of course academia usually looks down on such training as not 'worthy' because commercial training tends to cut the BS and focus only on 'need to know' to get the job done. Those in Industry and Commerce HAVE to train their own staff, because the bloated public sector seems incapable of providing the skills required.
  22. This is simply a direct consequence of lack of credit available to purchase newer cars. Buyers are forced to take what they can afford with cash, so it should come as no surprise that prices for older cars are rising due to increased demand for such vehicles New cars by contrast are much cheaper; now would be a very good time to trade in an old car for a newer one, because you win on both side of the deal.
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