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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. And how will all this be paid for? We all know that needs and wants only translate into demand in line with ability to pay I predict that the care market will become increasingly dominated by pressure to reduce costs with the consequence being declining standards.
  2. This is the key point IMO. The interest rate is a loss leader; what these lenders really want is the leverage and security inherent in large deposits. Now why would HSBC (and indeed many a BSoc) be so keen on borrowers with lowest LTV, I wonder? Yet many will still portray this as a bullish signal.
  3. IIRC the term 'credit crunch' was popular parlance on this forum well before (i.e. about 2 years) before the media caught on
  4. Most shocking statistic I heard recently is that the UK welfare bill is now larger than income tax revenue So the government is paying out more cash in benefits to non-workers than it collects from workers This is clearly not sustainable
  5. Good point, but how much of the grey vote are wealthy, how many depend on the state? The grey vote will decide UK elections for the foreseeable
  6. Yes, but I notice that the BSocs are getting restless. The BSA is increasingly vocal in press releases and with court cases at the EU - the sector could yet turn out to be a thorn in the side of various government plans.
  7. My take based on recent experience is that the BSoc are 'cream topping' with their limited cash funding base - offering very competitive deals for very low risk bowers (low LTV & income multiple). BSoc are therefore uncompetitive for anything remotely risky; hence the shift in volume to BBA members IMO the BSoc sector has a deliberate strategy to shrink loan book and focus instead on loan quality
  8. Significant in that Hometrack provide the valuations for 4/5 of UK mortgages IMO Hometrack provides the most accurate price model for individual properties
  9. Which going forward points to lower sale prices and the end of the dead cat bounce? RM has historically been a very bullish indicator; so IMO a -2.8% swing in RM is very bearish indeed.
  10. Thanks for that BP Interesting that the model seems quite accurate but heavily normalised, tending to overshoot on timing. So we could be in the predicted slide already - check the Japanese chart in fig 13
  11. No one seems to take much notice of the Rightmove index these days. Even the media seem to have lost interest There has been a lot of discussion on here about the validity of RM; IMO the bottom line is that it's a yardstick of seller's expectations, and nothing more. So I was curious to see the index for Aug 09 is DOWN by -2.2%, following an uptick over the four months Feb-May correlating closely with the recent Haliwide figures, but with a 2 month delay What does this mean? Link
  12. I think many are aware of the situation; but very few can see the correlation with the eventual outcome for housing. Most of the media debate has focused on the crisis in pensions & care; housing in this sense is not a mainstream subject. I got very interested in the housing occupancy implications of demographics due to my local council closing primary schools. This being due to the fact that kids grow up and move on; but the parents can tie up the family home for the next 20-30 years. Hertfordshire has a particular problem with this lumpy demographic, due to the number of new towns built just after the war. Occupancy levels are shockingly low in some areas; my best guestimate is that at least 2/3 of bedrooms in my postcode are 'spare rooms' . So it's obvious to me, but only because I have read up on the subject.
  13. Thanks VMR Book sounds interesting, was bang on in terms of timing I will look it up
  14. Retired people mostly live in family homes, but at some time in the future for financial or health reasons they will trade down. Another reason why the UK is 'going Japanese' It's something I have been banging on about for years
  15. This is very true; in my area school applications run September-October We moved to a new let last August for this very reason. I know several others who did the same; one was even an OO who rented for 6 months just to get the right school and has now moved back to their own home. But of course these houses will become available again around February-April when the 6 month ASTs run out.
  16. If my recent house viewing experience is anything to go on, it's not the reluctant landlords selling up; it's the 'professional' BTL landlords flogging their beleaguered HMO - I have looked at two such houses this week. One consequence of the recession is a boom in 'rooms for rent' as home-owners take lodgers to make ends meet. Thus pulling the rug from under the HMO landlords. Not to mention the Poles going home. So HMO's are being sold as 'family' homes; but they will tend to be lower priced because they are often a bit ropey having had a succession of short term tenants. IMO this shows that the supply/demand equation is not quite so simple as 'Households vs Builds'; because occupancy trends can shift the balance very quickly in a changing economic climate
  17. Fair points; but none of this disputes the issue in my anecdote - Transaction approvals stack from the bottom of the chain up; so one aspirational buyer/seller at the bottom can create a whole chain of overvalued (and therefore unviable) onward transactions, which will distort approval prices upwards. In reality such chains will fail to complete, because the 'buyer' at the bottom of the chain cannot sell their existing home in order to raise the necessary deposit.
  18. NW use mix adjustment, seasonal adjustment and 'cleaning' of statistical anomalies. They do not remove deals that do not complete - and indeed they cannot since many will complete later than the monthly publication of the statistics. Please read the following and explain where it says that NW adjust out sales that do not complete: Nationwide Methodology
  19. Yes exactly that, Haliwide indices show deals that have been approved for mortgage purposes but not (necessarily) complete Historically approvals were a useful forward indicator of the direction of prices, but in a market where a large percentage of deals fall through it does not provide much insight.
  20. I think this is the key point BL, how many of these deals will actually complete? Haliwide approvals show purchase offers, not sales. We have recently viewed several overpriced houses with onward chain and been told that the vendor cannot take a low offers as they need to sell at a good price to finance their onward purchase. The onward chain 'purchases' will already show up in the current Haliwide approvals, but in reality will these chains ever complete? As a further anecdotal more than one EA has told me that ATM many buyers seem to to be 'purchasing' before putting their own house on the market.
  21. The state will introduce 'house purchase befit' for homeless chavs, and the circle will thus be squared
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