[How To Short Property]

Kensington is a UK subprime lender and has recently had a fairly serious profit warning. I am thinking of going short on that one as well as the cantor market.

Northern Rock are offering stupid multiples, also big in BTL

How about Ocean Finance? Their market is MEW for those who have already got themselves into stupid levels of personal debt. Big loans to bad risks!

[What Are Your Circumstances And Why Are You On Here?]

1) What's your circumstances?

I'm a 32 year old male, married with kids (ages 8 & 3). FTB for £77K in 1998, STM for personal reasons Q4 2006, earn £50K in very secure job, £125K in cash & investments, could easily buy for £300K+ but don't see the point when it's cheaper to rent and fortunate to have a good LL who lets us treat the place like our own and even pays us for making home improvements! Best thing I ever did was NOT going to Uni after school but now studying with OU

2) What do you think will happen to the market?

Who knows? lots of things ARE different this time but ultimatly these just postpone the inevitable. So a crash will come but I don't know when. Our old house was the last one to sell on our street, about 9 others are still on market 4 months later, asking prices ARE dropping, so perhaps it has started already. HPC is only apparent in hindsight.

3) What's your biggest fear

Hyperinflation

4) What's your 'Confidence of a Crash' level at?

about 7

5) What will interest rates be by Christmas?

5.75%

[What Are Your Circumstances And Why Are You On Here?]

To Summarize

THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES

THE UK IS ABSOLUTELY FEKKED

Spot on!

I have been thinking 'Emperor's new clothes' about the UK economy for at least the last five years. The Emperor wore 'Fiat clothing' which only existed in the mind of the heard, and vapourised the moment somone dared to question it's worth

Knowledge comes and goes with the passing of time but true wisdom is timeless.

[More Hpc In The Mainstream]

What's significant with this story is not that the journalist has only just realized what's up with HPI but the Sun editorial machine has judged that sentiment has changed to the point where its readers (and advertisers) are ready to read this. Softening up time. Murdoch: "It's a GO chaps".

The Murdoch Media machine likes to pretend that it is a leader, that they influence elections etc. In reality all it does is follow the direction of the public mood. They backed Blair in 97 because they knew that Major was toast; they are not backing Brown, and what does his future look like?

So what does this tell you about popular sentiment towards the housing market?

[My Prediticions.]

BUT there is a pproblem that when prices drop there are many many peopel waiting in the wings, so i dont think the price drop will be as huge as wanted. Left alone it could reach 35% but people with twitchy fingers will curb that.

Are you mad? Who will rush to buy in a falling market? In a falling market sentiment turns backwards. 'Buy quick before you get priced out' becomes 'You will get it cheaper if you wait'.

In the last crash no one even dared call the bottom, the sentiment at the time was 'Well property prices are just going down'. The general view in 1997 was that you were mad to buy a house.

[Stock Markets Are Taking A Pasting]

As long as it takes the builders with it, I'm happy.

HBOS -9.00 5.47%

Wimpey (George) -31.00 5.43%

Bovis Homes Group -55.00 5.05%

Hanson -32 3.99% (bricks)

BSS -22.75 5.02% (building supplies)

Say no more!

[Why Btl Mob Don't Mind If They Have To Subsidise A Mortgage]

I'm not sure on history, but did most people rent in the victorian times, I have visions of property wealth being held by a minority whilst the majority had to pay some kind of rent.

Unless there are drastic changes in British and western society, thats the way it's heading it seems...

Try reading George Orwell's famous Road to Wigan Pier, this book contains a fascinating insight into previous housing conditions (1930s in this case)

The book is basically a diary so gives a very vivid picture of life in the (rented) slums between the wars. But most interesting is the description of the landlords, of which there were 3 basic types:

1) Aristocrats who own vast property empires, charge fairly high rents but otherwise not bad landlords, some are even quite philanthropic in dealing with tenants

2) Councils building lots of 'modern' property, these are the MOST expensive rents! (but also the best quliaty)

3) Widows with 2 or 3 houses, generaly very dilapidated property cos they have f@ck-all spare cash to spend on repairs and turn up 10mins before the rent is due to collect their 'Pension'. Cheap but very cr@ppy

Interesting that the worst landlords in 1930s were closest equivalent to much of today's BTL market.

Also that the private rents were cheaper than the council

[Bloomberg: Us- New Century Says Lenders Urge Loan Repayment After `violations']

Watch those dominoes fall as every player bankrupts the next in line until eventually you come to one with deep enough pockets to take the hit. (That will be your pension fund, btw!)

Think some of these 'numpties' will start being more careful with 'their' money?

'their' money = Our Money

[Bloomberg: Us- New Century Says Lenders Urge Loan Repayment After `violations']

Wow, forclosure moves up the food chain! Looks like good ole' NC did their own 'Lie to Buy' on MBS and now the whole operation is in negative equity and is gettin repossessed.....

But seriously, what impact does this have on the MBS market? Think some of these 'numpties' will start being more careful with 'their' money? isn't MBS a GLOBAL market? could we soon see some ripples coming across that pond.........?