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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. Perhaps GBs record on pensions make it more likely that he will do somthing nasty to BTL! I agree about the MIRAS though - GB, as ever, will undoubtably look for a solution that is funded by somone other than the government. BTL anyone?
  2. I think that your argument makes good sense, but there are a couple of things that have caught my attention lately that seem relevant: 1) Housing and house prices are slowly becoming a big political/media issue; I believe that HPC and other Web communities have played a big part in pushing this up the agenda, by posting responses to housing articles and voting on online polls etc. So inaction or fiddling is not realy an option. Pressure from online HP activists will not stop until housing is affordable... 2) Mainstream media is starting to print anti-BTL articles, I am seeing these in both national and local press, but mostly in the left-leaning broadsheets. This does not happen by accident; who is briefing these journalists? 3) Increasing government intervention in the previously wild west BTL sector: HMOs, Deposit guarantees, now tax and CGT Personally I do not think that GB gives a toss about votes from BTLs who are most likely Tory voters anyway. Tenants are more likely Labour voters. There are far more tenants than landlords, they each get one vote. You do the math. I do wonder if BTL are being set up to first receive a kicking, then as a convenient scapegoat when it all goes pear shaped. We will just have to wait and see who is right as this all unfolds over the coming weeks.
  3. 'Book it to Nimrod' used to be the standard procedure for reconciling any unaccoutable expenditure at a certain aerospace company it would be funny if it wasn't our money
  4. I have been thinking for some time now, housing could become Brown's Poll-Tax.........
  5. There is one fundimental difference between HPI and rent inflation: Nobody rents a flat speculativley! HPI is a positive feedback cycle, rapid house price growth encourages more speculation, which in turn feeds into rapid growth. Rents on the other hand follow the simple laws of price elasticity. People are not encoraged to rent more houses when the rent goes up, in fact the reverse is true, increasing rents choke off demand. Renters move to smaller properties, or into lodgings, or back to the parents. This is perhaps the reason why large houses are now so cheap to rent, relative to selling prices. The imigration factor is also at the stops. Almost all new migrants already live as lodgers or in crowded HMOs, and the back to the parents option takes them out the market altogether........any significnat increase in rents must therefore result in either increased wage demands, increasing inflation and consequently raising IRs; or a mass exodous, reducing demand
  6. Cumbria is not totaly dependent on tourism. Cumbria is home to several British owned, British employing, British manufacturing business. Most of the Grockle farmers are outsiders anyway.
  7. Terorism is the last resort of the desperate, this devlopment just shows how damaging to society HPI has become Actions of this kind could have a very quick downward impact on house prices in these areas. A few holiday homes torched, then unocupied holiday homes soon become uninsurable risks No insurance = No mortgage for unoccupied houses = removal of the main driving force of the market in these areas I doubt that a protest march can have such an effect
  8. When I worked there a few years ago they did a few mins work between tea breaks, which were mostly spent moaning about how right wing the Labour party had become and how badly they were paid! Don't get me wrong, I do believe that the beeb must provide an important balance against biased commercial media, but you have to work there to fully appreciate how detached from reality the place is! Interestingly the most objective news output seems to come from channel 4, which is commercial (but not)
  9. Tesco I was in there yesterday, after I found that the nearby Co-Op had no yoghurts left. When I got to the till, I discovered to my embaresment that I had no cash, so I asked the lady on the till if it was ok to pay the 71p for the yoghurts on my Debit Card. she replied, and I quote: 'It's Tesco's dear, we'll take the shirt off your back if you've nothing else' It was a bit chilly so I paid on the card........!
  10. Well said - I have been using this exact same line for some time! Welcome to HPC Sonic
  11. I have to agree about the bone-headedness of BTLs, many will try to cling to their 'Titanic' portfolios as they slip gently beneath the waves. However, some BTL are so highly MEW-geared that they simply won't have a choice: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=49166
  12. I was at a big family party this weekend and got into a conversation with one of my Aunts. Got talking about property because she asked if we were planning to buy another house (we STM last year and are currently renting) to which I relpied that we were in no rush, market slugish etc. but I made no mention at all of a possible HPC But it got more interesting when I said that we were quite enjoing renting, our landlord had to payout £2K for a new boiler etc, nice that it was not our problem....She then said that her brother had told her that he was 'fed up with chasing after tennants and their problems' and was selling up to pay back no less than £8m in mortgages on his BTL portfolio. She also went on about how costly it now is being a landlord what with management fees, deposit gaurantees, gas certificates etc and the prospect of energy performance certificates just adding to the burden. When I spoke to my old man a bit later it turned out that he had had more or less the same conversation with my uncle, but he had told another, rather different side to the story My uncle had said that his brother-in-law was coming severley unstuck. He has brought property after property in north east towns raising deposits by mortgaging the capital gains on his previous investments i.e MEW. But with property prices now so high and the market slowing the sums simply do not add up - the gains have shrunk while the deposits increased, until he has come to a point where the former does not cover the later. So it seems that his Ponzi scheme must grind to a halt and he cannot buy more properties or take further MEW Putting the two conversations together I realised that this guy is probably in realy deep sh1t. He obviously has no real cashflow as he has been dependent on ever increasing credit, based on rapid capital gains, to expand his empire. If he was making any sort of decent rental return on such a large portfolio, then he should easily be able to save a deposit. Instead he has had to use MEW to raise deposits. But now he has no capital gains left to MEW he is feeling the pinch just maintaining his properties. So it looks like he may have been dependent on capital gains to maintain the properties all along, but this did not become apparent until the capital gains dried up. His only hope now is to sell up. £8m of small properties, mostly in sh1tty areas in the North East, in a stagnating (maybe falling) market. I wonder how many other BTL are in the same situation? Only time will tell..........
  13. Never mind the buyers, solicitors and mortgage lenders will not break the law. HIPs will police themselves for this reason
  14. How about sellers marketing now to avoid the HIP, but knowingly overpricing because they are not quite ready to move yet result: average asking prices through the roof, then a rapid fall once these properties have to compete with market priced 'HIPed' properties. Who knows what could hapen as a result?
  15. Most interesting is that the article states two main drivers for inflation: Food and Fuel. These two have long been linked, because food production & import uses fuel. Now the circle is squared by the increasing use of Biofuels, which effectively uses food production to make fuel, such that there is a double inflationary presure on food prices due to demand for fuel The best property investment right now is Arable Land!
  16. I seem to rememeber that the LTSB Q4 2006 report stated that around 6% is the tipping point, where they predict the market will likely be flooded with repos or distressed sales from OOs unable to meet monthly payments. If they are right a singe 0.5% rise next month would tip the market.........
  17. It needs to be pointed out that most homeowners have NOT benefited from high house prices at all, even if they think that they have 'made' lots of money on their property! HPI makes it harder to 'trade up' with the rungs of the ladder further apart for all, so HPI is not just an issue for FTBs How does a homowner with equity actauly benifit from HPI? They can MEW and MEW, but this is just more debt, bigger payments. The only ones who benefit are those trading down, the speculators (including BTL) and of course those who benfit most from HPI are the banks. HPI has not benefited the population at large, most people simply do not understand this, so it needs to be explained in a rational, non confrontational way Debt is like a drug. You get instant gratification from taking it but if you take too much it screws you up in the long run.
  18. See my above post........ :angry: Policies that help younger generations are not vote winners......there are MORE old people AND they are more likely to vote! Perhaps they forget that they will soon be old, vulnerable and totaly dependendent on those 'younger generations'. This one just sums it up. head in the sand, you never had it so good etc:
  19. In my area the TORY county council is shutting down schools all over the place to sell the land for development. So pensioners pay less council tax and kids go to school in portacabins......just another aspect of the great generational robbery. ALL councils (Tory, NuLab or otherwise) are run by a bunch of old farts who could not give a toss about the younger generation, anyone who thinks that the Tories will sort the HPI mess out must be too young to remember the Thatcher years. Just like NuLabour the Tories purchased votes with our taxes/national assets, and f*cked up the country in the proccess. They do not give toss about YOU, they only want your VOTE! Labour: Buy votes by employing civil servants and by generous welfare payments while taxing to oblivion anyone who actauly produces anything Tory: Buy votes with tax cuts paid for by selling all the public assets and driving pubic services to the wall There is no difference between NuLabour and the Tories.......two sides of the same coin! THEY ARE ALL SCUM!!!!! I am not one to rant but this one realy gets my goat.....! :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:
  20. Looks like this one is worth a vote http://www.webcameron.org.uk/blogs/3691-Wi...-to-meet-demand Any more???
  21. True, but not the whole picture, there are an increasing number of people who 'can but wont' , myself included. That is the whole concept of STR. This argument should make sense, but in the main the market currently appears to be doing the complete opposite: big high value properties seem very 'sticky' while the low end of the market is going mad. It still amazes me that anyone would pay £250K for a 2 bed shoebox appartment when you can buy a nice 3 bed semi round the corner for the same price. However, I would have to agree that very silly prices now being paid for 'superhomes' (million pound gazumping etc) does tend to distort the average. i.e the 'average price of a home' is not the same as the 'price of an average home'. Look at hometrack or upmystreet for price trends of diferent property types for an area. Compare the price of detached, semi, terrace, flat. In my area the lower end properties are still rising quite fast, while detached have stalled and semis are already falling for several months My veiw is that the current situation simply shows that the overall market has already turned, because: 1) Higher value properties (4 & 5 bed detached etc) are now so expensive that hardley anyone can afford them, few people are trading up so the normal flow of cash up the ladder has all but stopped. Only those with very high income are now moving up. 2) The buyers that remain in the rest of the market are involved in a feeding fenzy for the few scraps that can still be reached at the bottom end of the market, pushing the price of low end property well beond anything that can be described as 'fundimentals'. 3) BTL buyers are also pushing up the price of basic property. BTL landlords do not buy £750K detached houses; they buy the same types of property that an FTB would be looking at (flats, ex council houses etc.) The fact that these types of properties have recently shown the strongest gains tends to sugest that BTL is an important factor in HPI.
  22. Never mind Iraq, Iran, China, this news on Russia will be very interesting for the oil market: http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,2056321,00.html
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