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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. Quote from the article: 'The prompt intervention of central banks puts off the day of reckoning'
  2. UpMyStreet is a property portal, aimed at the sheple UpMyStreet provides local area information and local area specific market data, aimed at people thinking of buying property in a given area, So such a bearish article on this site is very significant IMHO
  3. Bump No one care to comment on this? Should I change the title to 'VI predicts crash'??????
  4. Property portal upmystreet.com seems to be turning more bearish by the day: http://www.upmystreet.com/property/feature...%20HP1+3LW.html Extract: Property & moving Has the house price slowdown begun? Following a period of record growth and booming prices, early indications suggest the property slowdown has started. Here we outline a few of the factors that look set to moderate the market during the rest of 2007: 1. House price growth slows down "After surprisingly picking up steam in June, house prices were almost unchanged in July, and their underlying trend growth resumed a downward path." 2. Mortgage approvals down 3. Another interest rate rise expected 4. Homes taking longer to sell 5. Regional hotspots and slowdown areas 6. The HIPs effect Related articles Is a slowdown a good or bad thing? - Have your say The property market in your area - Analysis for your region
  5. Wasn't Merv just comenting on how he was concerned that the ONS data would be further 'disrupted' by the move to Cardiff? Merv is not stupid, but I supose he does have his pension to think about. I am starting to think that maybe he knows exactly what is going on, and is looking for subtle ways to discredit and detach the MPC from the ONS data, without the risks to his career by throwing accusations of political manipulation.
  6. This practice has a masking effect on the headline reposesion figure, as OOs who have lost their homes, though inability to pay the mortgage, show up as just another sale. But these 'buy up' complanies are also pushing average sale prices down, becuase they buy at 20-25% below 'market' valuation So far from preventing crash, these companies & individuals may end up unwittingly contributing to a crash
  7. With the risk of stating the obvious, EAs must sell properties in order to earn a living. If the market stops dead in its tracks then they will have to start lowering valuations in order to get sales, and their commision. EAs who fail to value down in a static market will go bust, through lack of sales. EAs do not only have a VI in HPI, they have an overiding a VI in selling houses, at whatever price they will shift. The HM cannot just stop dead for very long, it must go up or down.
  8. When they start saying, 'but you wanted it to happen so you could be proved right' that's when you know you were right all along
  9. Cold War civil defense was brought to an abrupt halt after a reveiw in 1991. Most of the kit has been scraped or sold off. On that subject, you might find this website interesting: http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/index.shtml
  10. 6 month ago everyone thought I was mad, but now there seem to be quite a few more 'mad' people at my workplace and elsewhere Anyone else notice how bullish joe's round the office are not so sure of their argument any more? The old VI spin gets posed more as a question, not a mantra. No one is laughing anymore, even the most diehard bulls I know are staring to question their logic
  11. The probelm is not just personel, it's the equipment. The army have kit and knowledge to set up temporary water treatment and sanitation, bridges, power. they can do this within hours, days at most. Civil defense stores have plenty emergency equipment like pumps, hoses etc, but is not set up to deliver complete temporary infrastucture. Most of this kit is currently deployed overseas
  12. Normaly the governement would bring in the Army to deal with this kind of thing, but its a long way to come from Basra. IIRC just last week a leaked memo from one of the Senior Generals was saying that currently the armed forces could not deal with a UK emergency, because they are too streched with overseas deployment. Something of a prophetic statement, in hindsight Bit like New Orleans, just wait for the political fallout
  13. there is alway plenty of work that needs doing, but does not get done because councils have no cash. Charities can also often make good use of 'voulenteers' So the comunity gets something back for the benfits paid out. The taxpayer benefits because the workshy no longer have an option to do nothing, which therfore encorages them to go and get a proper job, reducing the burden on the state. In any case, the net amount paid to a benfit claimant (including housing benfit, dental care, prescriptions etc) should always be less than the minimum wage.
  14. I have never understood why we pay people to do nothing, when there are always plenty of low skilled jobs that need doing. IMO all benfit claimants should be made do 'comunity service' type work, picking up litter, painting fences, odd jobs for the elderly etc. Even the disabled could do light work at home, like adressing envelopes or somthing, for the council or charities, IMO there should be NO BENEFITS at all, just the guarantee that if you cannot find a job elsewhere, you get given some sort of job by the state. Those who fail to turn up and do the work don't get paid. Kind of like the workhouse, but a bit more civilised Some employers, to their credit, have caught on to the fact that if you turn down a job, your benfits get stopped, so they just offer a job to absolutely everyone that the DSS send up (not even an interveiw!!!) then treat them like sh1t. I know of a warehouse (shoud that be 'workhouse'?!!!) run by a very well known clothing retailer, where the entry qualifaction requiremnt is to have 2 arms, 2 legs and a head. They run the place like prison - pay docked for taking more than 5 mins in the bog or not meeting your productivity target, visit from the company doctor if you phone in sick etc. They even run busses to pick people up, so there is no excuse for being late. Perhaps the government should take at look at this place, and set up a scheme to sponsor other employers to do the same
  15. Kaz Wecome to HPC. Some here are saying you are a troll but I will give you the benefit of the doubt This is neglegance on the part of the estate agent, you should make lots of noise about this. tell them that you might sue if they don't find another buyer quick! If nothing esle it should focus them on making an effort to sell you house (instead of someone elses) Having not long sold a house in WM myself, I can tell you that the market is dead, although there has been a bit of a bouce back over the last month or so. I was lucky that my house still needed a bit of work, so it looked cheap compared to the other 'finished' houses up for sale in the area, most of whaich are still on the market now, with prices lower than I sold for. On the housing market, most people only know what they see in the news, 'house prices booming' 'house prices only go up' etc. But are newspapers always right? quite often they get things wrong. On this forum you can find out things that you don't see in the news. Did you know that house prices are FALLING in USA, Spain, Eire? How much do you know about the MBS markets? Have you checked recent sale prices in your local market? have a look here: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?HTAct...streetId=162748 Do you actualy know what a house price crash is? Many of the posters here think that house prices are way too high, and that they will start falling soon. To be fair many of them have been saying this for years, and they have been wrong. But today there are more reasons than ever before why they might just turn out to be right. Ultimatly it comes down to price. If you NEED to move, then drop the price. Good Luck! Sonic
  16. This 'Agriflation' of staples is due to a masive spike in demand due to biofuel production being ramped up in the US and elswhere. 30% of the US harvest now goes into biofuel production and global stocks are at their lowest for decades This is not going away any time soon
  17. 4/5 chance that there might NOT be a HPC what pure VI spin! BofA come second only to JPM in exposure to credit derivatives: http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq406.pdf Also quite big in the UK (I used to work there!) So BofA probably stand to loose a lot from a UK HPC hence this spin.
  18. As I undersood things the US mortgage market has traditionaly been dominated by long term fixed rates. So while these 'creative' loans dominate new mortgage business, they only repreresent a smaller chunk of the wider US market, with many long term OOs still on their old long term fixes. This may have helped to slow the slide in the market stateside. The bigest slides have been seen in the areas where there has been high volume recent sales activity, larger concentrations of recently issuesd 'creative' loans, more OOs vulnerable to resets & IR hikes. The UK market is therefore more vulnerable to IR hikes than the US, because here SVR & short term fixes are regarded as 'conventional' and dominate the wider, established UK market, rather than being concentrated in just a few froth areas. A dose of GBs LTF loans in the market now aint goin' to make the blindest bit of difference......! It's shutting the stable door, after the horse has bolted.
  19. Perahps council tax should be banded according to the number of bedrooms over the number of occupants? Families pay less. Poorer pensioners in smaller accomodation pay less. Only the overhoused have to pay more, and they should be able to afford it!
  20. Increasing council tax would be the cheapest way to fix the shortage of family homes, by forcing the 'overhoused' pensioners to downsize. Councils are unlikely to do this though, because most councilers are pensioners and they will look after their own, and the government have capped council tax rises at 5% PA. However, UK local government budgets are already coming under significant pressure from the spiraling social care costs of a burgeoning elderly population. But the boomers are only just starting to retire. So in the near future councils & the governement will have to face a difficult choice; raise council tax significnalty, or increase means testing for social care. Both will place very siginficant finacial pressure on overhoused pensioners, many of whom will be forced to downsize. IMO this will happen within the next 5-7 years More info on demographics on this GEI thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....c=1132&st=0
  21. Should be a good investment if you are in it 'for the long term' Values will increase dramatically in about 300 years or so!
  22. This looks similar in concept to the communal apartments of Soviet Russia. Capitalism clearly provides far superior standards of living and independence. Under laissez-faire UK housing policy you get laminate flooring, and the freedom to pay your own gas bill
  23. WARNING - PROPERTY INVESTMENT MAY DAMAGE YOUR WEALTH When I first saw a poster for New Star's REIT my first thought was that it was a spoof, designed only to coax investors away from property It said somthing along the lines of this: 'Invest in bricks and mortar' Estimated return 3.8% (below base rate) Then this bit: Return quoted is an estimante the value of your investment may rise or fall in response to market variations etc. The last bit was in big letters on a coloured band at the botom of the advert, it reminded me only of a health warning on a fag packet!!
  24. I have not paid any rent at all since my LL gave me incorrect bank details 2 months ago It doesn't get any cheaper than this. I wonder how long it will take her to notice?
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