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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/sharp-inflation-rise-may-force-bank-to-raise-interest-rates-1949554.html
  2. My LL's mortgage payment on IO is more than my rent, so you are 100% wrong in my case
  3. Also interesting to note that approvals continue to rise while lending falls More failed transactions?
  4. IMO it's the denomination of the debt (rather than the holder) that is most significant, because GBP devaluation does not negate debts in other currencies, but it increases domestic debt in real terms. I don't have the paper to hand but IIRC BoE reported about 30-40% of UK RMBS is denominated in currency other than GBP, mostly USD and JPY. The discovery of this single fact was enough to convince me that it's impossible for the UK to inflate out of debt Some will argue that UK inward and outward debts more or less balance out (and they do) but unfortunately these are not held in equal measure by the same institutions. Some have greater offshore assets (Investment Banks, Pension funds) while others have massive offshore liabilities (Mortgage Banks)
  5. i.e. Occupancy is the key UK has among the most underoccupied housing in Europe. There is massive latent supply currently tied up in underoccupied homes, the proverbial 'empty nesters'
  6. Where is this pray tell? are you buying in the same area, or a cheaper area? £1100 PCM is very steep for a flat, I rent a four bed detached house just outside London for the same
  7. Dual income HPI is the long fuse on the demographic time bomb, and it's burning close to the end
  8. +1 Exactly where I am at - along with you and quite a few other HPC 'crashtimers' it seems. Have fun on your travels, and thanks for all your posts
  9. Don't take advice from internet forums, different people have different circumstances, do you own research. We sold to rent because we found it's cheaper to rent - much cheaper, which alows us to have a nicer home than we could otherwise afford as a buyer. It may be the same for you, or maybe not. You need to look at your own options and work out what's best for you.
  10. Virgin Media simply told Murdoch to f**k off, took Sky off cable and eventually got the Sky channels back cheaper. Broadcasters can't deliver without a network, but networks can always find content elsewhere
  11. Another consequence of such outcome would be total collapse of new mortgage lending, as the security against mortgage loans would become unenforceable.
  12. They also forgot to build a sewer system Check out the length of the queues of tankers at the sewage works A stinky linky The sewage works is so overloaded that they have had to dig a pit in the desert to dump sewage Dubia is quite literally a sh1thole
  13. That mirrors my experience with industrial leases in various UK cities (of which I have quite a few) 18 months ago its was often hard to find the right units (at any price) and agents didn't bother returning calls Now we see a wide choice of vacant units in most areas, and landlords willing to negotiate on terms So it's very clear to me that any uptick in CP investment is purely speculative; cash looking for a home, rather than genuine demand
  14. IMO you have the cause and effect back to front Western society no longer dependends on family suppoort structures, as welfare has taken it's place. Western families are no more keen to see their bretheren on the street than Asians; but western families don't need to intervene in crisis because the state does the job for them Take away the welfare, and the family support will come back naturaly
  15. Housing cost is the key to keeping the masses at work - otherwise known as feudalism It is possible to opt-out - someone I used to know left a well paid job in the city to work as a welder, and he actually ended up minted cos he lived in a bus, paid no rent, rates or bills.
  16. I like this bit: Of course now that most developers are technically insolvent, they are starting to release more land for development than they are purchasing. By building on the land, they can increase it's value, which helps their balance sheet. I wonder what happens next?
  17. DR I believe this is exactly what you are looking for Good luck with the PR
  18. The insanity is most obvious when you compare office prices with utility floorspace space i.e. warehouses HSBC sold their tower for a billion quid, within half a mile you can rent commercial units for £6ft2
  19. I predict unintended consequences £8bn is not enough to reinflate the UK housing market But it IS enough to outbid other lenders, making the rest of the mortgage market more fragile. For the reason above it will probably never happen
  20. LBG fund-raising announcement Tuesday. If LBG succeed in the rights issue they will dilute shareholder value, but they will also gain greater autonomy from government, allowing greater leverage of their monopoly position. Half the population of the UK have dealings with LBG - a factor that may have significant political implications Be interesting to see how markets react
  21. I would say it is possible for a wised up amateur to match or even beat developer costs, provided they have the right trade connections. I know plenty of people who can get hold of all sorts of building stuff (legally!) at a fraction of retail. If you have less scruples it's even cheaper, and if you have a trade yourself it's very easy to barter it for other skills - I used to do it all the time. But of course most amateur developers are not very wise, so they get mugged
  22. Does make me wonder if it's opinions or participants that are changing many HPC posters do seem to come and go (myself included) but perhaps that's a sentiment indicator in itself
  23. Thanks for the Poll sbn Interesting that Deflationists seem to be making a comeback (albeit on low volume!)
  24. Currency devaluation is NOT inflationary in consumer terms (at least not very much, see above) Currency devaluation does however inflate foreign denominated debts in a linear fashion, so banks need to get their hands on even MORE £££ to pay down their expired offshore funding Think about it
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