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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. A&L have just released news that they have limited sub-prime exposure: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6977745.stm Don't panic!!! (Until I have cashed in my ISA before you!!!)
  2. So some cash-strapped lenders will effectively have the customer by the short & curlies. Are these customers likely to get a 'competitive' deal on their remortgage? I can almost hear the broker saying 'sorry, you don't qualify for that deal, you will have to take the one with the higher payments' Ouch
  3. interesting that the jobs are being exported to Germany, of all places presumably Germany has lower costs, because property is cheaper.
  4. In some ways Rightmove have a bigger VI than the EAs Rightmove will be under a lot of presure, EAs in a locked market will place larger volumes and strong downward presure on costs of web advertising.
  5. STM can be seen as speculative, but there is also a question of motivation. Some STM/STRs do not have a choice, in that they cannot afford the property in the area they need. Most will have other considerations, family, work, schools etc.
  6. Yup just one or two negatives will pull the index below zero once the spike falls out and the LTA is more or less zero Lies, damn lies, and statistics! Those clinging onto HPI shown in those lingering YoY fogures forget that the average works both ways!
  7. This has to be one of the most pertinent posts I have seen on HPC! The media do not inform the sheeple; they are sheeple themselves. Journalists just report what others tell them. HPC will only occur when enough buyers are no longer able to finance their purchase. IMHO it is coming, but it will take months for the credit squeeze to feed through the lengthy house sales cycle.
  8. 'Overhousing' is usualy conveneintly ignored when discussing housing fundimentals. As Apom has so clearly shown, there is absolutety no shortage of housing, just an issue with allocation Another very key point: County Councils & Unitarys are ALREADY strugling to meet spiraling social care costs of an aging population, costs which are set to rise masively over the next 10 years due to the 'boomer bulge'. In order to balance their books, Councils & govt will have to face one of two choices in the very near future: Increase means testing, thus forcing overaccomodated pensioners to downsize Inrease council tax, thus forcing overaccomodated pensioners to downsize Of course many of these pensioners will also sell out simply because they cannot cope with the larger property as they get older, or like my folks, disburse the property to their kids to avoid IHT.
  9. Not so many of these uber-bull types left in my neck of the woods. Some of them are starting to look quite worried, and have even started asking for my advice. A few weeks ago they thought I was a nutter.
  10. Thanks also for your anechdote, very usefull to me too Very telling that NU seem keen to liquidate at any cost. IMO they must have a substancial liquidity gap in these funds to be acting like this; so it is likely that they are liquidating other portfolios elsewhere. PERHAPS it will be the institutionals rather than BTLs that trigger the rush for the exits. These are true FORCED SALES
  11. I have a NU pension, and can therfore provide a very simple explanation. I have been sent a mailer from NU explaining that they have been forced to apply an MVR to the UK property funds due to the increasing volumes of stakeholders 'cashing in' these funds. They go on to explain that property is slow to liquidate, and therefore they are applying the MVR to slow down the withdrawalls, allowing an orderly exit. So the sale of NU property is purely in responce to an increase in stakeholders liquidating their NU property funds I don't supose that NU are the only ones in this situation This is very telling on property sentiment; but also consider the implictions for supply when large institutions dump whole portfolios on the market in one go....just as credit tightens and buyer confidence is waning
  12. Similar to my experience. Remember 'House Doctors'? Anoying presenter but posibly the most honest 'property porn' programe on the telly I sold my last house with nothing more than a quick tarting up with a lick of paint and a (very) cheap new carpet on the stairs, all of which were DIY. Kitchen and bathroom were both old, but quite adaquate 2 others in my street were up for £15-20K more due to being more 'modern'. I found a buyer in about 4 weeks; the others have dropped their prices last time I looked, and still not sold
  13. Borris is well known as a twit, so he has nothing to loose. But his sugestions on housing are somthing of an about-turn for the NIMBY Torries - my own local Tory MP is camapaining on blocking (Labour backed) plans for building on the green belt. So perhaps the Tories are using him to 'test the water' on a change of housing/development policy
  14. Good point but this is equally true of many of the towns/cities in the north of england and the midlands - loads of small houses in sh1ty areas. IMO it's the bottom of the market that has got most overpriced - Partly due to BTL, but also simply because most buyers, even existing OOs, are priced out of larger property. Interstingly all of the areas with falls seem to be those that are 'up and coming' in EA speak Perhaps they should now be called 'down and going'
  15. Are Kirtsy and Phil finaly turning bear? 'make a low offer' is their main advice.
  16. Likewise we have a very good LL too. When our heating broke down the plumber turned up the same day, was told to by the LL to 'do whatever is needed' to get it working again, no question of cost, LL ended up spending over £2K. The LL even brought round some electric heaters for us to use for the few days while the plumber was sorting it out and was most apologetic for our trouble. The rest of the time we never even speak to the LL, they just leave us to get on with it and the rent is on DD But he is no newbie geared BTL, he owns our house outright along with a large number of others.
  17. the deal for me is not just the cost, but the agro I found myself rodding drains on christmas day 6 months after buying my first house; even worse the drain in my garden was at the end of a run of 10 houses! In the last 6 months I have had: New boiler, tanks & heating controls: Cost £2K Fix leaky sink in kitchen Cost: £70 Fix leaky pipe under bath: Cost: £70 Replaster kitchen celing (after leak!) Cost £200 Fix leaky roof Cost £200 But none of the above have cost me more than the price of a phone call to my landlord!!!!
  18. I agree, but these days people feel that they have to have a show home in order to acheive their sales price. The irony is that with all the property porn on the telly many buyers are looking for a place to do up; seeing the 'show home' as somone else's dream
  19. I find it hard to beeleive that this idiot will last more than a few months, if he even manges to get a mortgage post credit crunch it will be at a punishing rate, so it is unlikely he will ever see a positive yeild It just shows how [email protected] the housing market has become. It's like late 80's lunacy all over again. I don't see how anyone can argue that HPI is in any way sustainable with stories like these!
  20. Thants what I was thinking, of course the EA has to recover their costs The oppotunity cost of 'Kite flying' is £600, perhaps insignificant in a bull market but more of an incentive if you end up paying more than once - which you will if you refuse to reprice in a stagnant market.
  21. This is a very, very good question, personal debt is huge in the UK, much bigger than the US Individuals with lots of credit get a better credit rating (as long as they have met repayments) But there must be a fair chunk of people who have very large personal debts but are not even 'sub prime' as such, becuase they have met minimum repayments by piling debt on debt, taking out ever more loans, credit cards etc. to pay the bills on previous debts. In my experience such people are not uncommon these days! These people will get burned in the credit crunch, as they will be unable to continue their ponzi financing for much longer. Personal loan rates have shot up already. The interesting thing here is that these individuals owe to various different organisations; so a defualt/CCJ with any of them may set other creditors on a scramble to be the first to reclaim their debt
  22. Effectively means that vendors must be comitted to selling, regardles if they or the EA pay for the HIP EAs will put more presure on vendors to drop prices to secure a sale, if the EA has paid for a HIP
  23. Could also be a 'flight to quality' for Nationwide, in that they want to compete to keep/gain the most 'prime' mortgage customers in a very risky market - The cheapest rates are only ever offered to those with low LTV, good credit history and income records. This could therefore be seen as a very defensive move by N/W
  24. Yes I remeber this very well, IIRC my thoughts at the time were that the 3G auctions were one of the main triggers for the dotcom bust...it all happend in very quick sucesion the 3G auctions were a game of nerves, no operator dared not to join in in case they got left behind. Then in a mater of weeks, days even all the talk was 'They paid HOW MUCH? are they f***ing MAD? they will be ruined!' Bit of an 'Emporer's new clothes' moment Sound familiar?
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