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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. It doesn't take a genius to work out that there are many more votes to be gained in supporting Tenants than landlords. Who would gain most from HB cuts & consequent rent reductions? Middle income private tenants who work, pay taxes and pay their own rent. Who are this group most likely to vote for? So I am not surprised by IDS political calculation - it's something I predicted well before the election
  2. Japan is an extreme case though, since the whole world adopted their ZIRP policy JPY had now where else to go but up The other factor often forgotten is carry trade financed credit - before the credit crunch UK MBS was about 30% financed with relatively cheaper JPY, USD, EUR which created massive demand for GBP in the conversion. In effect Banks were borrowing at a cheaper rate in JPY, USD, EUR then exchanging for GBP in order to finance their mortgage books. So it's kind of inevitable that GBP would fall as lending has collapsed and carry trades reverse. It's not a bad thing (for you perhaps!) it's a sign of the UK rebalancing
  3. I had been pondering this very point lately The US is well on the skids, with both USD and JPY also being pulled down by rising tensions with China, and EUR is being battered by the likes of Greece By contrast the UK colalition government seems remarkably focused on tackling inbalances at various levels, stronger GDP pushes back the prospect of QE2
  4. +1 Has anyone else on here actually listened to the Boris interview? It didn't sound much like an attack on the Government to me He said "hopefully the HB cuts will bring rents DOWN". Does that sound like someone hoping that HB wont be cut?
  5. So did Boris...he said hopefully the HB cuts will bring rents down
  6. I don't think you are quite getting it The proposal is to allow HAs to charge increased rents on NEW tenancies, to allow leveraged purchase or construction of additional social housing units. This will not affect existing social tenants, but it will provide funding for additional, NEW social homes, at 80% of private market rents. So some social rents will rise - but the difference will be picked up by HB for those that can't afford it. Private rents will fall however, because the BTL sector (and most particularly the HB slum-lord sector) will be faced with stiff new competition from a sharp increase in social housing units, offered at a rent level that is set below the 'market' rate. Given the overhang of unsold apartments, such capacity could become available very quickly.
  7. Constitutionally the BBC is a very strange beast and by consequence it's 'intentions' are often misinterpreted. The BBC is not a single homogeneous entity. It's a rather more loose collection of semi-autonomous empires, for which various groups and individuals continuously jostle for control. Some of the most bizarre and banal policy decisions are made by large committees, made up of individuals from various groups supposedly representative of the makeup of the UK population. Anyone who has served on such a committee will understand that this is not the best way to be decisive...... The BBC got a lot of flack after Peston broke Northern Rock....the current 'don't spook the market' stance is most likely just a knee jerk reaction, so typical of the BBC
  8. Not sure if I agree with that CTTR.. Those I hear criticise Cleg most are died-in-the-wool left or right; but these are not the type of voters who decide elections. For years the LDs have been unable to tap the full potential of the true liberal vote, due to their own loony fringe. Clegg seems determined to change that, it may yet turn out to be a political master stroke
  9. Call me a cynic but that was my exact thought when I saw the 3.6% drop......
  10. I think you are missing the point - it's not so much a sell-off, because most of the UK pubic property estate was already sold off long ago, today many 'public' buildings are either leased back or were rented from private landlords in the first place. This move is mostly about cancelling leases on unused or or underutilised property, and selling unused sites. No doubt PS staff cuts will provide further opportunities for rationalisation. It's a no-brainer IMO
  11. I disagree, after 13 years of Nulabour benefit cuts have become a populist policy - there are many recent surveys showing that a clear majority support benefit cuts FWIW I have personally just lost £1600 in child benefit, but both my wife and I see no reason to bleat, because if we're honest we don't really need it.
  12. Said supplier is not a commodity spiv - they have a substantial manufacturing cost base to support and are positioning for the long term. They have a choice between banking a one-time speculative gain or levering it to keep the factories humming & customers buying while competitors go bust, which will ultimately support their sales markets just when things get really tough.
  13. IMO it's just a symptom of collapse in demand generaly I have multiple suppliers begging for orders on a regular basis now; last saw this early 2008. Ironically I have plenty big orders to place (£100K+ each) to fulfil customer demands but prices are too high, too sticky - suppliers all bitching about rising costs and commodity prices. I do have one supplier willing to discount (very large German industrial product manufacturer) turns out they hedged various commodities in 2008, so I guess that proves that inflated commodities are pushing product prices to unsupportable levels Yet another case of QE fuelled speculation strangling the real economy
  14. Worse than that, optical and access kit is ALL made in China now, even the major US/European brands Trade war with China would destroy western Telecoms industry
  15. Play the buggers at thir own game Just turn each comment into a negative and they soon STFU "We looked at two(three, four) others up the road but we're still not sure it's the right area...." "but it's not as nice as the one we looked at down the road, and that's £20k cheaper....." "Lots of people overstech themselves, we're too experieced to fall into that trap...." "Are they serious about selling? it's still overpriced...." 'Oh realy? - I didn't know they had such big problems......I hope they don't have to pull out of the sale before completeion' EAs are easy prey.....just turn their comment into a negative and they soon STFU. The trick is to start off realy keen to draw them in, but then slowly loose interest with a string of negative comments. Be very polite, but cold and factual.
  16. So supply of homes is NOT slow and inelastic......exisiting stock can very qucikly produce a much larger number of 'homes', simply by sub-dividing the exisitng units. As Durch pointed out the demand side is equaly flexible
  17. Thanks for the link TCI Ah yes..........pesky savers proping up the Yen with thier carry trade. The UK clearly does not have the same 'problem' The point I was trying to make is that IR will not save HPI, even if the BoE is able to keep them low.
  18. IRs can stay low - Japan has had Zero IR for years (but look where it got them) The bigest problem for the BoE is that they have no further significant cuts to make, they have played their hand and lost.
  19. Just the same in Zim. People NEED food; shelter they can make do.
  20. Last summer EAs would list at any property at stupidly high prices, because sthe shortage of sellers left them desperate for new clients Guese what the EAs will do this year? "sorry we're not listing at that price, we have plenty on the books already"
  21. I agree with this totaly - Coalition have chosen the Housing Market to be the fall guy. The evidence of this goal is stacking up: a stated an aim to keep IRs low rents are already included in CPI removal or reduction of various HPI props (Housing benefit, HIPs, Stamp duty holiday, Mortgage relief) introducion of policies that negatively impact housing demand (CGT rise, Second home tax) policies to increase supply (Booting empty nesters out of social housing, tax incentives to planning authorities)
  22. Butlins, Haven, Park Resorts et al have virtualy doubled their prices over the last 2-3 years. However it's not demand pull - this year Butlins are still pushing last minuite deals in August, but 2 years ago they were fully booked for the school holidays by about April. So more a case of lack of competiton from overseas - coleage just back from Turkey reports £7 a pint, £12 for a Big Mac However another coleage just back from the USA reports deflation all the way, pair of jeans for $1 meals out for $5.
  23. Can't seem to find find the actual quote but IIRC Shipside said somthing recently about EA's becoming (or needing to become?) much more picky; increasigly taking instructions only from vendors willing to price to sell.
  24. Let's not forget that housing costs, including rents, are a high weighted item in the CPI basket Thus lower market rents will directly reduce CPI, allowing interest rates to stay low(er) which is perhaps part of the Government's motivation in the policy.
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