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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. LTSB call centres & back office are mostly in Labour strongholds in South Wales, whereas the Scots are increasingly revolting (with the SNP) You do the math
  2. Manufaturing input & factory gate inflation has peaked and is now falling, as has the Oil price CPI will follow, as will a rate cut (Behind the curve as always)
  3. Bump - Oops, didn't mean to kill the thread CDS prices are highly relevant, just treat the figures with due caution
  4. I dont' know IMO CDS prices are only a reliable indicator of the most risky institutions - the real basket cases The safest CDS in the market may trade at a premium due to current demand for safe investments, so it is impossible to measure the risk premium from the market price of many CDS
  5. Nationwide are fully cash funded NW have not issued or rolled over any wholesale debt since Q4 07, so their CDS price is not (directly) comparible with other institiutuions.
  6. I agree, but to be fair HP are not so bad as some others I won't mention What amazes me is that they never cull the bull merchants who produce nothing of any value, instead always cutting jobs in engineering depts which are already very overstreched. Most of these large companies cannot actualy deliver a project on their own and are totaly dependent on their smaller subcontractors to get the job done while they sit in meetings talking tosh.
  7. Snap Did a load of work on tenders for two quite massive UK infrastructure projects (£1Bn+) quite recently, and AFAIK these are still full steam ahead. But suppliers are being much more helpful than before, obviously feeling the pinch
  8. On that note, I had a very interesting chat with a waiter in Grand Canaria a couple of months ago. He was saying that tourism in the Canaries was between a rock and a hard place because: High UK interest rates = big mortgage payments and no money left for holidays Low UK interest rates = More expensive euro and more expnesive flights making holidays unaffordable
  9. Time for a Plane Price Crash Perhaps we should park them all along the A4 and turn them into BTL appartments . Or perhaps they could be used to house asylum seekers, with the added bonus that they can then be deported in the comfort of their own home.
  10. The press release says C & D memebrs will not get the same mebership rights as NW members. It looks like C &D will continue to run as indipendent BS but with funding support from NW £1.4Bn sub-prime is tiny, NW current total loan book is £142Bn. NW desperatly need the debt assets, as their loan to deposit value is currently 117% i.e. they have 17% more deposits than loans
  11. I don't 'think that' I was just quoting the ONS statistics. The overhousing probem is not caused by people buying a bigger house than they need. Nearly all overhousing is due to older folks staying put when the brood leaves home. How many people under 40 do you know that have 2+ spare bedrooms? IMO the allocation problem has pricipaly been caused by an expansion of ownership, becuase OOs with an empty nest and no mortgage stay put (whereas renters more often downsize becuase rental costs rise)
  12. There is no fundimental shortage of housing; just a staggering inbalance in the way housing is allocated. IMO The very same socio-economic factors that have created this missalocation will act to reverse it i.e. the expansion & contraction of credit, contraction in birthrate due to missalocation of family homes.
  13. The UK has more than enough family homes; unfortunatly most of them are occupied by 'empty nesters' with one or two people with 3+ bedrooms Check ONS data on occupancy (spare rooms per person) This is from 2001: (but IMO probably worse now due to home leavers) 74% of couples in the UK are overhoused (i.e have TWO or more spare bedrooms) Overal 36% of uk housholds are overhoused against just 2% that are overcrowded. IMO it is inevitable that this situation will self correct, quite soon. Link
  14. The last house to sell on my street is listed at £800K, while my rent is £900PCM making the 'normal' value about £108K-£162k by your ratio. Granted the two houses are not identical (detached bungalow/semi-d) but they are about the same size and just a few doors apart. We share the same neighbours, parking problems and nice veiw across the valley.
  15. The Internet boom has happened. IIRC a lot of people got into property folowing the Dot-Com crash But in the event the biggest winners from the Internet boom turned out to be the second wave of 'vulture investors' who brought distressed assets (ISPs, telecom networks, data centres etc.) for pennies in the pound AFTER the crash.
  16. Reminds me of the early 90's and all those 'travelers' living in busses & trucks etc. Many were well heeled individuals who had simply decided to 'opt out' of the rat race. Anyone else noticed that there seem to be quiet a few more of these 'travelers' about at the moment?
  17. Its a very good question! I once paid for a revalution (upwards) to reduce the LTV and therefore the IR. But with prices falling this will work in reverse! Higher LTV against lower valautions can only increase the number of borowers who get tied to their existing lender on SVR; as the OP has pointed out this may include many more than just the most recent high LTV borowers.
  18. Lower ranks such as research assistants, studio runners etc. earn much less still. These people are usualy young graduates who work for a pittance in order to be able to put 'BBC' on their CV A very key point to add to those from W12, by constitution the BBC is very decentalised in it's mangagment structure. Most output policy is set by a committee of one form or another. Therefore the only individuals within the BBC who can set their own personal agenda are live presenters such as talk show hosts. The opinions given by such presenters should not be confused with BBC editorial policy - because by definition live output is not eddited!
  19. WTF? Its a good place for tourists to visit but I don't understand why anyone with a pulse would want to live in St Albans. The parking is a nightmare, there is no decent size supermarket, leisure facilities are piss-poor and there are not enough schools for all the kids. There are usually people sleeping rough in the multi-story and it's nigh impossible to walk the length of the High Street without getting accosted by some cider drinking weirdo/Chav single mum. You'd feel safer walking round Stevanage or Harlow FFS!
  20. What about the mortgage 'industry', not to mention Housebuilding, Estate Agents etc.
  21. You referecenced young-uns/olduns in genral so I replied in the same vein. People do get seem to get confused with context as they get older....... In general, areas with older populations have more spare rooms. That's a simple fact - check the census data on ONS. The reason why young people dont have kids is becuase most of the family homes are still occupied by 'empty nesters'. I don't care if older people want to stay in their homes - just don't moan about young uns 'doing their bit' when the (in)actions of older folks are part of the problem.....
  22. Got no response AJ? IMO this is the botom line of why there are NO KIDS to look after the pensioners.
  23. YOU lot could start by moving out of all those family houses with 2-3 spare bedrooms that you insist on still living in 15-20 years after your family have flown the coop. Then the youg-uns will have somwhere to raise their family.
  24. I like to say 'Sanity is not statistical' Wecome to the forum CM!
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