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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Everything posted by Sonic the Hedge Fund

  1. Bankrupt all the banks that were baled out, by undercutting them with even more dodgy (taxpayer funded) lending! I have to agree the plan is quite ingenious, the whole country and the government will be bankrupt in no time at all. Houses will be free to anyone with a shotgun!
  2. Interesting (if rather dark) point TTD, that boomer bulge is a whole different bubble ready to burst I have long thought about cost of living on fixed income, downsizing, health care costs etc. but I wonder what effect a severe downturn will have on lifespan.
  3. Nationwide average sale price £153,048 for December Interesting to see a widening chasm between seller's expectations and reality. Looks like buyers should be asking for at least 30% off!
  4. I love the irony in Mr Shipside's Analysis He insists that sale prices must rise because supply has dropped due to sellers withdrawing their property in order to rent it out; then goes on to say that rental market is totaly [email protected] due to 40% oversupply! It doesn't seem too dificult to me: Can't sell + Can't let = Up sh1t creek with two mortgages, have to sell at any price or get repossessed!
  5. Now you realy are funny!! You might as well say 'it's not me that's mad, it's everyone else!'
  6. UK government is AA-, so the much touted govt CDS underwrite is ultimatelty worthless It's the usual 'talk loud achieve nothing' ******
  7. Oh, and I forgot about the glut of recent newbuild Prices in LB still have a long, long way to fall!
  8. Leighton Buzzard has long been a commuter overspill for the more expensive areas to the south (Hemel, Berkhamsted, St Albans, Watford) I personaly know numerous individuals who have moved 'oop north' from West Herts in order to get more for their money. But with the big price drops recently seen further to the south LB no longer looks such 'good' value. Why spend 10-15 hours a week commuting for a £10K price difference?
  9. That makes no difference to my argument If a seller puts the money in the bank for whatever reason then the net effect on total capital avialable for UK house purchase is zero, or less when taking into account transaction costs. Substancialy less in the case of paying down a mortgage due to FRR. Put simply cash goes further in the bank (due to FRR) than if the same cash is used to purchase assets directly. Also a buyer who sells and deposits the cash is by definition not purchasing another property, so in this case the cash buyer creates no new demand for property, as this is canceled out by the seller's STR. I fail to see how this will cause HPI either way
  10. It might be thought that people converting cash into property would reststart HPI. Think again. People using savings to buy propery take their cash out of a bank, which in turn reduces said bank's ability to lend, an effect that is amplified more than tenfold by the fractional reserve system. Thus cash purchases have a net deflationary effect on funding for house purchase. The inflationary buble of debt secuiuritisation has burst; cash funding is self balancing, so prices will continue to fall towards their natural level.
  11. Good point BL IIRC the CDS spread for UK government debt is much wider than that for Macdonalds or Coca Cola If the govt do underwrite mortgage debt then they will simply further undermine their own credit rating.
  12. +1 This constant accusation from women really p155es me off because it is simply not true! There was a very interesting program on the telly a while back about the retouching of body images in magazine pictures. It turns out that the lads mags won't retouch images of women to make them look skinnier etc. because men actually find these distorted images totaly repulsive The most distorted retouching, making women look unnaturally thin was done by magazines aimed at, and edited by women
  13. One to watch is Nationwide IMO As others have pointed out NW are funded mostly with retail deposits. Perhaps the reason why NW have been very public about their policy of no more cuts
  14. Benefit claiments are sh1t scared of any prospect of a Tory governemnt The unemployed, disabled and single parents will all vote Labour
  15. The world is still facing an energy crisis, so anything energy related is a very good bet for the foreseeable, IIRC just as ?...! has been saying for a while 'Offshore' skills are paticualrly valuable in the UK, able now to move straight from Oil & Gas into Renewables (wind & tidal) but IMO anything to do with renewables, nuclear or power distribution shoud be OK, massive skill gap ATM due to lack of investment over the last 20 years.
  16. back OT, it was not lost on me that all three had a profession that depends almost totaly on easy credit For builders an extension is the ultimate MEW purchase, and new houses are of course mostly purchased with mortgage. the guy seemed to be doing OK in the circumstances. Less obvious for the dodgy car dealer, but my guess is his supply of cheap auction cars has dried up, because folks are no longer trading in old cars (which end up down the auction) for new ones brought on credit. Also lots more competition for cheaper cars, becasue folks can't get a more expensive newer one on credit anymore. Incidently a couple of people I know who fix & sell old cars are making a killing at the mo, cheap old cars are in high demand so prices for such cars are rising. So I think his basic probem was not the higher prices (because these can be passed on) but his lack of cash to start with. Mortage broker - need I say more
  17. Lets get one thing straight, our governments are as usual, talking lots and acheiving absolutuely f'ck all. Lending is controled by market forces, the goverment (and for that mater the BoE) are for the most part mere spectators in this game. As others have pointed out, lenders didn't give a sh1t about default risk before, because securatisation passed the default risk to other investors. So the colapse of securatisation has brought exposure to default risk back to the door of the mortgage lenders. The housing market is therefore in a classic 'chicken-egg' situation. Banks will not raise LTV or salary multiples while house prices continue to fall, as to do so would increase their exposure to default risk, which they can no longer pass to sombody else through securitisation But prices will continue to fall because people cannot get mortages etc. etc.
  18. Ah yes, the dreaded Bungaroosh There is nothing new under the sun!
  19. Worth considering trading up, an extra £100 PCM seems to go a long way, and nice houses are now often no more expensive than crappy flats IMO this is because there is a lot of competition from 'forced LL' in the 3 bed+ space, these LL are both desperate and willing to let ASAP for whatever price they can get.
  20. I remember one repo 'victim' on the telly paid about £60k in 1996, but had £180k mortgage. Another said they had no choice in taking out 125% because they 'needed a bigger house'. My heart bleeds....
  21. I suggest that you watch property adverts for reduced rents, then go in and offer even less. We pay £900 PCM for an immaculate 3 bed house in a very nice area (previously on sale at £299k) that was first advertised for £1200. We watched it drop by £50/week for 3 weeks, then went in and offered £100 less. The LA thought the offer was cheeky, but the LL accepted without argument. LL that has already reduced is obviously willing, and a 'cheeky offer' gets you in first in before it starts to look cheap
  22. HM, I take your arguments but it seems to me that the main point you are making is that it's unfair that the banks are no longer stupid enough to lend money to people who are clearly not capable of paying it back. Is that really unfair? Or is it simply in everyone's best interest, including your cousin? IMO any person who (for whatever reason) is only able to save £4K in 5 years is clearly not capable of affording to buy a house, period.
  23. My local rag (West Herts) had no property section at all last week just a handful of private adds for rented rooms Total page count: 8, down from about 60 last year After estate agents, it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch!
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