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CapeFear

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About CapeFear

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  1. Very nice post EDM, reminded me of your posts on the FT forum a few years back. Got me interested in macroeconomics, those posts - thanks Something I didn't quite get though: So you're listing 3 forces: * Deflationary recession * Worsening of credit conditions * Bubble unwind <--- What extra effects do you mean by this? Isn't that already covered by the 2 points above? As for your general forecast of the general conditions and sentiment (of borrowers and lenders alike) finally reversing to the fullest extent, I couldn't agree more. Today's news of 20% mortgage lending contraction
  2. Could you elaborate on how average would be "most meaningful"? I think you got it backwards. Median for things like salaries or house prices is in fact a better measure of the "typical" because it isn't skewed by the rare-but-exorbitant samples.
  3. So slightly higher than chances of finding Elvis on the moon then. Although in fairness house prices probably doubled since Martin Ellis (was it him?) said that.
  4. And the average American lives where? I doubt the answer is a condo.
  5. To be fair to good old Anatole, he doesn't conclude anything - the article is hypothetical and, in my opinion, very good. He simply follows a certain plausible chain of reasoning to some unpleasant conundrums. I thank him for my shiny new sig
  6. Oh that is interesting. British sheeple? Because so far the mainstream is in utter denial re subprime here, and all the reports about "why NRK" are centered around the money market shift - rather than the loan book quality.
  7. I liked the article. I'm sure the prominent US real estate analysts were publishing ones just like it only a year ago.
  8. Less convinced about Abbey. But Tesco must be one of the safest plays imaginable - a minor diversification of one of the most respected businesses on the planet...
  9. I think you might be underestimating the average individual. Who cares about the headlines - Joe Bloggs will still grab the 9x multiple at a 2 year fix if he can. Note - if he can. But then this happens (quote from BBC's Q&A at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6994160.stm): And this is from a company that was apparently responsible for almost 20% of UK mortgage lending?
  10. Totally. It's just that your pound, such as it is, goes further if the general level of the market is lower. But you really got me worried now that the semi in Guildford that I have my eye on will be cuelly snapped up in front of my eyes by JK Rowling or Posh Spice
  11. It's true that owning property isn't a human right. But, whether owning personally, or owning through a REIT, or renting, the property has a yield. The OP demonstrated that that yield extrapolates to zero due to income growth being unable to support the rising valuations. The thread doesn't have much to do with ownership of property, just the future of its statistical P/E.
  12. This may well hold true for nominal house prices as expressed in USD/GBP. But, I think these currencies may well be now standing at a Hoover/Weimar crossroads, with both paths leading to ruin... But of course if the Weimar path is taken then leveraged borrowing to purchase hard assets was the best possible thing to have done recently
  13. Sounds illegal. They need a work permit to do that sort of thing - and the IND won't give a work permit unless the offered salary is competitive at least.
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