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Posts posted by Timbuk3

  1. So I just saw this story on CNBC as I was grazing the internet.  Made my mind hurt, so Danes are wealthiest in Europe with assets of Dkr 300,000 but on average each owes Dkr 560,000 .  Doesn't that mean the average Dane is Dkr 260,000 in debt ?

    Debt is wealth, FFS that's nuts. Is that how people in the UK think now.


  2. 3 hours ago, spyguy said:

    I cant find the study, but a few years back someone showed that the high returns PE get was all down to leverage. Lots n lots of leverage.

    FT had  a good article on the PE weasels  behind EG.

    Inside the secretive private equity firm behind the £6.8bn Asda buyout With the help of US hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, two bankers built TDR into an ‘old world’ force


    One element of TDR’s investment approach is rooted in their early Bankers Trust days, said the same person who has worked with Dale and Robertson: “You buy an asset, take your money back, and sit with a free option on the upside.”

    The firm bought the gym chain David Lloyd in 2013 using £190m from its fund and £528.5m in debt, company filings show. Since then, TDR has recouped more than £550m in dividends and other repayments, almost three times its initial investment. That has been paid for in part by piling fresh debt on to a company that now owes more than £1bn.


    These are the fuktards behind Punch Taverns, where they leveraged up pubs via securitisation. then blew up.

    Even now, most towns I visit have several empty boarded up pubs.

    Massive massive wealth destruction, except for them.



    Private Equity = Buy a fairly well run company with highly leveraged debt, load the debt on to same company and take massive dividends for management over the next few years.  When company goes bust then just walk away and keep all your dividends.  All employees out of work and a good company down the drain.  This is modern capitalism, it's just hollowing out of companies by parasitic management. 

  3. 15 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

    I take all your well-made points.

    I try and analysis it all in a similar way to you (the real economy) but there seems to be a deep political agenda on some posts and a belief the banking sector could somehow have answers for the political and real economic problems.

    I am uncertain of the real global situation at the moment, there are so many factors. Will we get the very high inflation go through the system that I am currently seeing in my business or will somehow it not reach the CPI basket like the BOE, and every central bank seems to think as well as many posters? But I really can not see how it can be avoided. It will be interesting as well as frightening to see what actually happen in the next six months.

    I am currently resourcing many products/materials from China where we were getting most from Europe. I have added to the situation the (hopefully temporary) problem of the very high cost and reliability of shipping. The situation in the Eurozone is much worse than people imagine and although I would not go as far as to say there could be a Euro collapse this year, there are serious problems ahead. On a human level I do feel sorry for the companies in both Northern and Southern Ireland who I cannot (unwilling to with the extra levels of paperwork etc) supply. But 56% of N.I. voted to leave so I do not feel too bad. I am fairly certain there will be a breakup of the Eurozone sooner than many think. Maybe it will benefit Britain now that N.I. is now part of the Eurozone? But it will not benefit them or Eire in the medium to long term, so I can only see trouble ahead.

    The QE experiment does actually frighten me. I am sure there will be more defaults either by design or otherwise at all levels. Like most people on the planet, I have been looking for a safe solid currency but there is nothing easily available. The currency markets have been very quiet for a while, but it can all change very quickly.

    Your main point about Capitalism stands if there is no return on work/capital/investment then it shuts down. Government cannot create wealth they can only spend it, albeit on our behalf or what they think is in our best interests. There are other views such as the soviet experiment, but this failed dismally.

    The unlocking of lockdown will cause problems and it is a very worrying time for the UK government. Maybe that is why they are extending it as long as possible?

    You mean 56% of N.I. voted to remain not leave? 


  4. 1 hour ago, Si1 said:

    I know it's a local chavvy shopping centre but it's OUR local chavvy shopping centre. And it's got a Costa so there. (And a Yorkshire fish and chips which is frankly more my thing). Tesco, Card Factory Yadda Yadda.

    But more seriously from a community perspective, obviously since I know people locally, pregnant women are now avoiding it, they have to as there's nowhere to sit down, and recently an elderly lady had to be picked up after she tried leaning against a wall there for a rest and it went a bit wrong.  Have you ever heard of a shopping centre that got rid of all public area seating to increase profits?

    I expect it is either to force people to sit at Costa (and have to buy something from them) or they want to run down the site and then knock it down and redevelop it.  Or both.

  5. On 16/06/2021 at 14:51, msi said:

    The housing market is dead, Dave.  Stamp Duty Holiday is dead, Dave.  

    They're all dead, Dave



    HMRC issues new guidance to bleating Estate Agents about their chains.  All along they could have requested an expedited service - who knew!!


  6. 1 minute ago, winkie said:

    Lockdown and furlough has given many an opportunity to retire, change course, retrain....people living from high house prices and rents, many Europeans have gone home......I would say there are far fewer working full time than there has ever been. Would love a breakdown of the population of those working full or part-time, retired, own means, school and in further education, at home looking after house and family etc.....are there stats for that to compare with say 10 years ago?;)

    From what I am seeing I would agree with you.  My other half who works in hospitality has 4 or 5 job offers at the moment. she quit the job where she was furloughed since October and then took one with a 15% pay rise. Just one word covers that - INFLATION..



    Buy To Let


    Housing issues surge as end of the eviction ban nears

    Written by: Emma Lunn
    The ban on most bailiff-enforced evictions in England comes to an end on 31 May, while the notice period landlords need to give their tenants will be reduced from six to four months.

    The imminent end of the eviction ban means increasing numbers of private tenants are turning to Citizens Advice for help. The charity’s online housing advice has been viewed more than 2 million times in the first four months of the year.


    Citizens Advice data shows that in January to April 2021 there has been a 17% increase in people with eviction issues compared to the same period in 2020. There has also been a 36% increase in the number of people seeking help with all types of problem in the private rented sector (31,700 in January to April 2021 vs 23,400 people in January to April 2020).

    Polling conducted by ICM Unlimited for Citizens Advice also shows that, in the UK, almost one in 10 (8%) private renters are behind on their rent. This equates to more than 350,000 tenants across the country. The poll also found that the average amount of arrears owed has risen by 24% in the past few months from £730 in November 2020 to £907 in April 2021.


    Meanwhile, research by Generation Rent has estimated that ‘unfair’ evictions cost local councils £161m a year.


    Can tenants be evicted in June?

    It was announced in March that tenants couldn’t be removed from their homes by bailiffs until 31 May at the earliest. The requirement for landlords to provide six-month notice periods to tenants before they evict was also extended until at least 31 May. It was previously due to end on 31 March.


    The rules change from 1 June but it doesn’t mean that tenants can be evicted immediately. For most tenants, only those at the end of a long legal process will face imminent eviction. Then there is still 14 days’ notice before the final stage, which is the bailiffs attending. A landlord who carries out or threatens an eviction without following this process is likely to be committing a criminal offence.


    So, what should tenants do if they are issued with a notice seeking possession by their landlord? Amy Hughes, Citizens Advice’s senior housing expert, says the first thing is to get some advice about whether the notice is valid, or any help that might be available.


    She said: “A landlord notice is step one – it doesn’t mean an eviction can go ahead. If the landlord doesn’t follow the process to the letter of the law tenants may be able to successfully fight an eviction. If that’s not possible, a court may make an order for possession.


    “Only when the date set for possession by the court has passed, can the landlord apply for bailiffs to carry out an eviction. This stage is also an opportunity for both sides to sort out their differences.”


    There were some circumstances in which evictions were allowed to take place while the ban was in place – including more than six months of rent arrears. But if you are being evicted due to one of these reasons, you will still get 14 days’ notice.


    Hughes said: “Once again, seek advice. In some cases the local council will have a duty to provide alternative accommodation. Citizens Advice and other housing charities can also help people find an alternative place to live, or even delay the eviction at this late stage.”


    Citizens Advice is calling on the government to provide a package of financial support, delivered through grants and government-backed loans, for renters in England facing arrears due to the economic effects of the pandemic.


    A group of MPs has also called for the same action, while renters campaign group Generation Rent has called for a Covid Rent Debt Fund to clear arrears built up in the pandemic.


    Dame Clare Moriarty, chief executive of Citizens Advice, said: “Next week, the sticking plaster applied to the English private rented sector during the pandemic will be ripped off. Ending the eviction ban puts thousands of renters at risk of losing their home. The government should put in place a system of grants and government-backed loans for renters in England who are still financially struggling because of Covid-19.


    “The lack of security renters in England will face from Monday is a symptom of a longer term problem where tenants can be evicted without cause. The government has committed to ending no-fault evictions and it’s vital this is urgently enshrined in law in their forthcoming reforms to the private rented sector.”

  8. Even 'Housebarassment' Phil thinks that the market is going to tank again - but this time it's the Government's fault.

    Is the Help to Buy scheme worth it? Property expert Phil Spencer reveals his thoughts

    Sharnaz Shahid
    Wed, 26 May 2021, 8:14 am

    The Help to Buy equity loan scheme has helped over thousands of homebuyers buy a house ever since its launch in 2013. And earlier this year, first-time buyers in England were able to purchase a home under the new version of the Help to Buy equity loan scheme.

    The scheme, which is set to run until the end of 2023, will now be limited to people buying their first homes - unlike the previous ones. So what is the Help to Buy scheme? The scheme gives buyers improve their chances of securing a mortgage and getting on the property ladder with a smaller deposit.

    READ: When should I buy a house? Phil Spencer reveals advice for first-time buyers


    WATCH: Celebrity homes before and after fame revealed

    Is the help to buy scheme worth it?

    However, this method has some drawbacks too - well, according to property expert Phil Spencer, who has described the scheme as like "pouring fuel on the fire".

    Exclusive: Phil Spencer reveals how to tackle working from home in the long run

    READ: Phil Spencer's ultimate tips and guide to renting for students

    Speaking exclusively to HELLO!, the Location, Location, Location host explained: "It's a difficult one, isn't it? Because anything that helps first-time buyers has to be applauded. I like that, great, well done!

    "But it is like pouring fuel on the fire because more people will buy and borrow more money; and house prices consequently will rise. So that has to be a concern."



    Phil Spencer shares his thoughts on the Help to Buy scheme

    The Help to Buy equity loan scheme allows first-time buyers and home movers to purchase a new-build home with a 5% deposit. With the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit, there are now several new factors home buyers will have to consider when purchasing a property this year.

    MORE: 26 best living room accessories to brighten up your mood

    READ: 9 genius ways to decorate your rental home on a budget

    "The other things I can't quite settle in my mind are that we got into the financial crisis in 2008 and the subprime lending," continued Phil.

    "We got into that situation or the bank's got us into that situation because they were lending money to people that they perhaps shouldn't have been lending money to."



    The housing market is exceptionally busy right now

    Even though the TV star applauds the government's efforts, there are still a few concerns. He said: "As much as I completely celebrate things that help people get onto the housing market, because I think it's a great thing to do for a myriad of different reasons, I have a concern if the government - and therefore us as the state - are underwriting 95% mortgages to people that perhaps couldn't afford them.

    "Is the whole thing going to happen again? This time it's the state - our government as the treasury (we the taxpayers) - who is lending money in situations where banks themselves aren't prepared to do anymore."

  9. 1 hour ago, fuzzy_bear said:

    Bank of England sets interest rates 

    In theory they do, but really it's the bond markets that set the interest rates.  If BOE can't borrow at a low rate, they have to increase the rate they pay in order to attract lenders.  If lenders don't lend at 1% and are asking 3% then the BOE will have to recoup that difference from the organisations that lend from them i.e. the clearing banks, and they in turn will ask more from their lenders - and so the rate gets passed on to everyone. 

  10. 12 minutes ago, Timm said:

    I think the BOE will let inflation run at this level for a while at least, to catch up after undershooting their 2% remit for a year. Also losing 5% of the value of the national debt will not harm Rishi's plans.   If it continues though then I'd expect rates to start climbing later in the year.

  11. 24 minutes ago, erat_forte said:

    Perhaps the Government should intervene in cases like this where there is a long chain. When the chain gets stuck, the estate agent could call in a special government scheme "Help to Proceed" which would offer an interest free bridging loan to whoever was holding up the chain. That way all the sales could proceed at the highest possible price.

    Are you writing the next Conservative manifesto ?

  12. 4 hours ago, Warlord said:

    Some would not have gone bust - the GOOD banks. Pure capitalism rewards GOOD Behaviour. The GOOD banks would have stepped in and taken all the custom .


    4 hours ago, Warlord said:

    Some would not have gone bust - the GOOD banks. Pure capitalism rewards GOOD Behaviour. The GOOD banks would have stepped in and taken all the custom .

    There are no good banks. Most of them would have gone bust due to inter-bank lending, all of them would have lost money. Some might have been able to re-capitalise by tapping shareholders but without government / central bank bailouts there would be so few left that there would be a virtual monopoly operating.

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