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lets get it right

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Posts posted by lets get it right

  1. It only takes one nutter.

    We've lived with this risk all our lives. Who knows how this may pan out. I'd put the popcorn away and get the prayer mat out if I were you. You might find you're not an innocent bystander.

    You never know, you might get called up.

  2. In danger of going off on a tanget on this thread but....

    The only reason these people do it is because they are so selfish they have no concept of their surroundings. The whole HPI, working for a house has passed them by, NuLabours welfare state means these are the kinds of people that are bringing up the next generation of feckless wasters

    If my neighbour (and the one you describe), had any notion of what its like to get up every day and go out working for 9 hours, rather than sleep in then wander down the high street for fags and a gossip, they wouldn't be so inconsiderate of those around them

    It says something about the effects of HPI when the only place you can afford on a decent salary is a slum with dole scroungers for neighbours

    Thank you boomers

    And in what way am I responsible for this mess?

    I'd repeal the planning laws that choke supply and put endless pressure on prices.

    I'd take land from people and redistribute it so we could all have an acre of grass and the right to build our own dwelling.

    I'd make second home ownership so heavily taxed you'd have to be Richard Branson to afford one.

    I didn't invent this dog-eat-dog society which has led to the 'every man for himself' property boom.

    You can't blame people for trying to secure their future. BTL is a gift. Lots of people (not all boomers either) could not look a gift-horse in the mouth.

    Throughout history if people didn't like the world around them, they banded together and tried to change it.

    Over to you.

  3. Eric, the FSA bang out about customer protection yet under thier very noses as I type the likes of First National (GE Money) and Preferred mortgages (2 sub prime lenders) are happily lending up to 8 x income. Im amazed no UK paper has picked - up on this.

    The UK Media are in it up to their necks. Who owns Prime Location? Who publish property supplements every week. Who owns the local papers that houses are advertised in?

    Bloke I know moved recently from a 400k house to a 650k house. Went from 100k mortgage to 360k mortgage. He earns 60k and has two kids. He is in his mid 40s. I asked him why he took on such a big mortgage. His answer was basically - the house will be worth at least a million when I retire and, if it is, I'll have 650k of equity. Using the same maths, if I stay where I am, I'll have 500k in equity. 150k is a fair extra chunk for my pension - and we get to spend the next 20 years overlooking the golf course.

    Other risks aside, it sort of makes sense to me. It definitely makes sense to him and millions of others. The party continues.

  4. Good point, I can't imagen that situation happening again, then again maybe we've moved on as an economy and cycles have really been smoothed out.

    If you believe that, you believe in fairies. The differences between 'last time(s)' and this time are very worrying. In those days we had a very inefficient economy, hampered by absurd restrictive practices and lack of investment. And although our manufacturing base was gradually being eroded (principally) by Japanese competition, we did still have a large manufacturing base. Since them we have had the emergence of the global market economy and have China and India to compete with, as well as all the other asian tiger economies.

    Now we have a service or knowledge economy - WTFTI (whatever the f*** that is) where PR twerps charge £500 a day and a guy owing a graphic design company knocking out fancy logos drives a Maserati.

    But the biggest problem of the lot is debt. Pure and simple. Our economy RELIES on ever increasing borrowing to keep going. You don't have to be rocket scientist or (even) an economist to work out this can't go on forever. If you think we can have M4 growth in excess of 10% forever, you really don't understand the fundamentals.

    Lots of people know what is going to happen. And they have their fingers in the dyke. When the dyke breaks, the bankers will own the lot.

  5. The youth of today are on all fours and the BOE/this government are preparing to undertake what many regard as an unnatural act.

    Brace yourselves boys and girls. Well just boys I suppose as the girls are used to this position.

    Once you're 'on the hook' you'll never get off.

    This site needs one of those progress bars filling from left to right you often see in software installation programs.

    The caption above the progress bar would read.

    Transfer of Wealth between Generations.

    ................... (this represents the bar filling up!)

    MsgBox ("The transfer of wealth from the younger generation to the older generation is now complete. All young people are now seriously indebted and will work like dogs for the rest of their miserable lives to keep the older generation in the style to which they have become accustomed. Please click Okay to confirm the transfer or click Cancel, and emigrate, if you do not agree.")

  6. A recession can cause immence pain and hardship for a large section of society however any developed nation can bear the brunt by borrowing to see the country through the bad times.

    What a load of tosh! Ever seen a country go to the IMF with a begging bowl? For your information we did just that in the 1970s - cap in hand.

    Look at the combined debt of the USA and the UK - when it goes tits up, no-one is going to have the money to lend to us. This is why you read so much 'doomsday scenario' stuff in the press these days. Economists at large seem to have woken up to what is going on. Hence this post title 'US Housing Slump may Trigger GLOBAL Crisis' warns Morgan Stanley.

    I'll take more notice of them than a, what did you say you were, an Insolvency practioner? Someone who makes a list of debts and assets and allocates them? Tricky job.

  7. The argument that we should be worried about a severe recession, does not bother me, I have no debt and will do any job in any country.

    "You could do like many of my parents generation and raise a family in one or two rented rooms" - How did they cope with an AST?

    In those days things were different. There was a rent man who knocked on your door at the same time each week for the rent. If you did not pay, the following week you and your bags became acquainted with the pavement. ASTs were a backward step that has taken us back towards the Rachman era.

    If this government is happy for your generation to rent forever, you will need Lifetime Tenancies.

  8. For me, that means moving somewhere else which offers that reward without any loyalty to the Country which educated me and brought me up.

    My perception of my education was that I was forcibly removed from the care of my parents for 6 and a half hours a day and subjected to religous indoctrination and enough 'learning' to prepare me for life as a drone.

    As such I too feel little loyalty to this country. I believe that ultimately the ownership (or shared ownership) of land is the birthright of everyone. But this country, like most others, has evolved a completely unfair system of land ownership that excludes the vast majority of people from ever owning more than a postage stamp size plot.

    And, to own that plot, they have to sell their souls to the devil and stay in debt for much of their lives. Currently, for younger people even that unhappy option has been removed and it looks like they are going to rent their soul to the devil instead of selling it.

    Once people stood and fought against injustice - and gradually we stopped people working 14 hour days in dangerous factories. I guess the 'globalization' process makes it inevitable that people will look for a better country to live in rather than trying to change the one they were born in.

  9. Absolutely, but you're talking about a different world. One in which people like you shouldered the responsibilities and planned accordingly.

    The evidence of the recent past is that anyone who is prudent and responsible is a fool. The people who have been massively enriched in the last ten years are those who have taken what would, in normal times, be regarded as financially suicidal risks. The moral is that only a fool takes responsibility in the way you describe. Get pregnant at 16, get housed, live off the state. Work your butt off, get educated, get a job, get f*cked over in our high-pressure world, rent from a slumlord. Now there's a choice.

    I'm not that badly paid but in a massive recession I'd sign on, get my council tax and rent paid, draw benefits, and watch the world go by. It will be a huge levelling-down. Meanwhile the majority of people will keep their jobs and the world will keep turning. Lots of BTLers will go bust and then when things come round again I'll buy that three-bed Victorian.

    I appreciate that on the face of it the world looks pretty much as you describe i.e. anyone who is prudent and responsible is a fool. But this is a very narrow view. It's a view all about property. If you borrowed money and bought shares in 1999 you would still be counting the cost. If you borrowed money and bought gold in the 70s you would still be counting the cost. A lot of people have made a lot of money out of property in the last 10 years. A lot of people LOST a lot of money in property in the previous 10 years. (A lot of builders / developers went broke in the early 90s - all this is conveniently forgotten).

    Don't forget the human cost. You say you's sign on. I never have, despite being out of work for a couple of years in the early 90's - during which time I retrained and taught myself desk-top publishing - signed on. I mentioned 4 out of 10 of the men in my road were out of work at the same time. None of us had ever been out of work before. We all became house-husbands overnight. We all HATED it. You can say what you like about 'watching the world go by' - having your wife as the bread-winner makes most men feel like a [email protected] Even if it is beyond their control.

    In a massive recession the first thing that happens is that benefits are cut. The state simply cannot afford to pay millions on the dole.

  10. Sorry I do not buy this argument anymore, it is quality of life that is important, you had to wait 6 years for a second child because of the consequences of the previous boom, how long do we have to wait before even considering starting a family?

    What argument? I believe I am simply stating facts. I don't understand your point. I would say that if we hadn't had our first child in 1989 we probably wouldn't have had children at all because, by the times things had picked up again - we had our second in 1995 - I was already 43 and beginning to think 'I'm a bit old to be a Dad'. In fact things hadn't picked up that much by 1995 - we had the second because we just thought to hell with it - we didn't want our first born to be an only child.

    When you ask 'how long do we have to wait before even considering starting a family?' I'm not sure what your position is. You could do like many of my parents generation and raise a family in one or two rented rooms. That seems to be the future for quite a lot of young people.

  11. Before you all start celebrating ....

    I wonder if you have any idea what will happen if Pandora's Box is opened? I have a feeling you all think there will be an orderly correction in the housing market, prices will drop 30%, 40%, 50% (or whatever your favourite crash number is) and you'll be able to swoop in and buy that nice 4 bed detached house you always aspired to for 200k.

    What you will actually get is:

    Savage credit tightening - so unless you are in a good, secure job with great prospects and a big cash deposit - you won't get a mortgage

    A severe recession - so you might lose your job and have no prospect of another one because companies are simply not hiring. This happened to me and lots of others in the early 90's. 4 out of 10 of the middle-income, middle-class men in my street were out of work in the early 90's. (None of us had ever been out of work in our lives before). Can't happen to you? You wait!

    I can only assume most of you are too young to remember what happened just 17 years ago. And in the early 80s. And, as for the 70s ... I wonder how many of you can actually believe that we had a government imposed 3 day week. That emergency laws were passed to make it illegal for shop windows to be lit at night. That street lamps were switched off in the night. That petrol rationing coupons were issued.

    You seem to think everything will be just great - with a happy correction to house prices the only problem. The phrase 'be careful what you wish for' comes to mind. A stagnant market with below inflation rises - or no rises - for 10 years would be a lot better for everyone.

    But I guess for many your child rearing days will have passed you by by then. The reason why there is a 6 year gap between my two children is very simple - the recession of the early 90's put me out of work and we couldn't afford a second child.

    The problems in the 70's were caused by an energy crisis - the price of oil doubled almost overnight. Sound familiar? The scenario now is different with the problems being caused by a massive boom in credit - but the outcome will be the same. In a crisis everyone gets hurt. Even if you keep your job, you can kiss wage rises goodbye for a good few years.

  12. to look back, our parents generation had nothing. most didnt own their own homes, didnt have much wealth , worked tough manual jobs, had very few possessions, but they lead far happier lives than most people today, and brought up their kids on a pittance.

    Obviously a different experience from my parents. Dad left school at 14 and joined the army to get a trade when he was 18. Second world war came along and he served the full shebang. Mum was an Irish immigrant. 5 kids. Council house all their lives. Never had much money and, as far as I could observe, never had much fun.

    They're both dead now. I often think back over their lives and wonder what they got out of the deal.

  13. No, the south east is in a bubble, which cannot be sustained. The whole mortgage industry in the UK is based on fraud. Fraud by buyers and sellers.

    Actually, I hate to burst your bubble but the South-East is NOT in a bubble. As I posted today in another thread, the price of detached houses in my area of Berkshire has hardly moved up at all in the last FOUR years. We have high property prices that have stayed high for four years. We had a bubble, now we have a plateau. The longer this goes on, the more entrenched it will become.

  14. Our jobs are tied to this location. I can't easily move to hull or luton as much as I might want to. (But is there anywhere in the SE where I'd be able to buy a house much more easily than here, to be honest?)

    So what you're saying is that I can't buy a family house in the South of England. Um. A problem for other people too? What will happen to our economy if no-one can have a family and live a decent life in large areas of England if they missed buying at the crucial point?

    Well you know the answers.

    Firstly our housing stock is moving, quite rapidly, into the hands of property speculators.

    The rental demand for that housing stock is being fuelled by uncontrolled immigration.

    Where this leaves people like you I don't know. If I were you I'd be getting seriously ANGRY - angry enough to attend my MP's regular surgery (is that the right word?) and telling him the facts as you have described here. That two decent, hard-working professional people cannot afford to buy a home and raise a family in this boom / no bust yet economy.

    If he or she is a Labour MP let them have it with both barrels. If you know other people in your area in the same boat as you, get them to go with you. If an MP suddenly found himself facing 50 really angry decent normal people, angry about something (HPI) that is constantly portrayed as a good thing - you never know - it might get them thinking.

    If this happened in every constituency in the country, it might get them really thinking.

    Who knows? The longer this drags on, the worse it gets for people like you. I'm afraid you are going to have to fight for what should be reasonably yours.

  15. Don`t let not being able to afford to buy a house (at the moment) stop you from having children. There`s never a good time, financially, to start a family. Parenthood is the best thing ever!

    Surely you miss the point. Parenthood is great. Especially when your 18 year old son is talking about emigrating because he can't see much of a future in this sceptic isle (Del Boy acknowledged).

    What is the point of having children if you have to dump them in a nursery 6 am to 6 pm because both parents have to work - hard and long hours - just to afford a poxy 2 bed terraced box to live in.

    Tell me - WHAT'S THE FECKING POINT OF THAT? Look around you at the sort of society this is creating.

  16. Every chance of future success actually.

    HPs will fall 25%+ on average over the next several years and there will be regions that will fall more than that. Those that rose the most will fall the most.

    Also there will be the one in ten that MUST sell and you MUST deal hard.

    Keep the economic faith.

    fp

    Pure, undiluted, utter and complete hogwash. The poster's analysis is correct. Your analysis is from the kindergarten.

    House prices will fall 25%+ on average over the next several years ... Dear Lord, how can you write this tosh? Face the facts, like the poster has, a huge divide has opened up in this country over the last 10 years. If you are on the wrong side of the divide, it's going to take a miracle to get you across.

    To the poster: One thing you can rest assured on is: - your friend cannot afford private school for 3 kids on a salary of 60k. Last time I earned a salary of 60k (in 1999) I took home about £3600 - I did have a flash car. Whatever - even if 60k equates to 40k take home these days - 3 kids in crummy private schools adds up to 30k by the time you have paid for the uniform and the school trips. Do they have a mortgage on their 650k villa?

  17. And think how much money we're saving on schools, maternity hospitals etc.

    Now, if only there was a way of doing away with those expensive old folk as well...

    I think you'll find that all the EU people from abroad that we have working here are entitled to send their children to school and get treated in hospital. So no savings there.

    As for the old folk - well we'll all be well out of it in sunnier climes while you lot slave to pay our pensions. God bless you all.

  18. When the proposition is that increases in interest rates have no effect on HPI - I have to ask - what HPI?

    You seem to buy the drivel published by the VIs.

    Now, admittedly my concern is my local market and detached houses in particular.

    Have a look at this.

    Property price trend for Bracknell, Berkshire

    If I say to people around here 'Actually, over the last 4 years HPI in this area has been negligible - 5% probably, 10% tops - i.e. less than inflation' they look at me as though I am mad. They are convinced their house has gone up 50% in the last 4 years - because they keep reading in the paper etc.

    Plenty of other people on here have posted similar, FACTUAL, information. Yet still you buy the VI drivel. It baffles me.

  19. Its credit availability stupid!

    I've had three mortgages. In 2001 I had to beg the Alliance and Leicester to lend me 3.5 time salary. Based on an income of £40k basic, £6k annual overtime and a perfect credit history. They would not budge off 3.5 AND they would not count the annual overtime at all. I had a 15% deposit.

    In 2003 Standard Life were willing to go to 4.25 Basic plus half the Overtime and I only had 10% deposit.

    In early 2006 First Trust bank were offering me 5.5 times basic + overtime with only a 5% deposit required.

    Fine. For me. Able to cover the debt with ease.

    But my God what a lot of others have gotten themselves into! And what a mess for the country long term. Nobody in their early 30's is able to contemplate having even one child never mind two or three. At the end of the day demographics are unbeatable...

    ANDY

    We no longer need to have children. The Poles are doing it for us and sending them over here to do the work our non-existent children are not around to do.

    There are a lot of young English people working now in places like the Czech republic. The world has gone mad.

    Without any input from me my 18 year old son has worked out there is no future for him in this country. And that is not because he lacks enterprise. On the contrary, he seems to be something of an entrepreneur. But he looks ahead and sees the hurdles are so high. I am being very careful not to prejudice his view of the world around him. I want him to be enthusiastic and excited by life and its possibilities. He's off to New Zealand shortly to visit a friend who moved there with her family a year ago.

    I won't be surprised if he doesn't come back. Which I will find rather sad - apart from the fact my wife and I want to retire there. So maybe we'll all relocate eventually and this country will be the poorer for losing two decent young lads.

  20. Provided you're still saying that in a few years' time when you realise you could have got the house for at least 30% less, good for you.

    Are you never going to learn? Look back through the threads since this site started.

    How many times have people said 'I've had enough, I'm going to buy.'

    How many times have people replied 'Ah, but you could wait a few years and get it for 30% less.'

    In SOME parts of the country houses have gone up 30% in the last 3 years. So if you wait another few years and get it for 30% less, you're getting it for (roughly) what you could have bought for 6 years ago (from then).

    I would have thought that if this site proves one thing it is this: 'Saying the same thing over and over again does not make something come true'.

    I believe houses are 'over-valued' - whatever that means. I believe there is a chance they will 'correct'. But, come on, people here behave like a cult.

  21. Because the state doesn't produce anything, or create wealth?

    Err, it was a rhetorical question.

    Edited. Although, thinking about it a bit more - why doesn't everyone work for the state? They used to in Russia and in North Korea. Okay, they made a hash of it - but if we had Gordenron Stalin in charge what could go wrong?

    A man of gravitas and principle. A caring, daring father figure to the nation. He single-handedly takes on the problems of the nation and heaves them onto his broad and decent shoulders. Truly we are blessed to have our finances managed by such a lesser God. While Blair has huffed and blagged his way around the world, Gordenron (kneels and crosses himself) has created a secure and stable economy which, by extrapolation, will employ everyone by the year 2024.

    I think I love him.

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