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lets get it right

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Posts posted by lets get it right

  1. The tipping point for the market back then was the huge hike in interest rates over night.

    Why do you write such nonsense? Which huge hike in interest rates are you talking about? The one in 1992 when we pulled out of the ERM? The one that was 3 years after the market turned? The one that only lasted 5 minutes.

    I dug out old mortgage statements for the 80s a while ago - rates went up and down like a yo-yo during the 80s. Increases and decreases of 1% - even 1.5% were the norm. But, generally, people's mortgages were much smaller than now.

    The ending of joint MIRAS relief was the catalyst that turned the market.

    I know people on here don't like it but, however, it is different this time. Credit is far more easily obtainable, BTL is now a big factor in the property market and interest rates are still historically low and likely to stay low for the forseeable future.

    You can't undo the destruction of pensions and the growth of BTL - the changes that now mean nearly everyone regards their home as their only way of accumulating capital.

  2. Steady on, the only people to benefit from a scrapping of tax on income from pensions funds will be fund managers and the long line of associated paracites, there only pi$$ed off the Government have taken it, I bet if it were scrapped tomorrow most of their fees and assocaited cost would rise to 5% a year, at least GB is making use of it by paying for hospitials, schools and maybe the odd migrant drug den.

    Who knows the real reason why its all kicked off now, could be his last budget has pi$$ed off alot of London folk who live in the new congestion charging regions and drive 4x4 and have houses worth more than a million.

    So lets put the crosses away for another day.

    You're obviously a bit simple or you never hear the news. It has 'kicked off' because the Freedom of Information act was used to compel the treasury to release the advice given to Fat Bolleaux before his first budget.

    They told him 'IF YOU SCRAP THE DIVIDEND TAX CREDIT ENJOYED BY PENSION FUNDS YOU WILL F*UCK UP EVERYONE'S PENSIONS, PARTICULARLY POORER PEOPLE'S PENSIONS'

    He said 'BOLLEAUX TO YOU, BOLLEAUX TO THEM, BOLLEAUX TO EVERYONE, I AM GOING TO RAISE SO MUCH TAX I WON'T KNOW HOW TO SPEND IT ALL AND NO FECKER CAN STOP ME BECAUSE WE'VE JUST WON A LANDSLIDE ELECTION VICTORY'

    Until the information was obtained - which the Treasury fought for TWO YEARS to not release - everyone knew Gordon was a moron - they assumed he did not realise what a devastating effect it would have on everyone's pensions. But, no ...

    Now we know he was told.

    Get the crosses out.

  3. Oh dear!

    Laddie, please sort out your chickens and eggs.

    House prices reflect and do not dictate economies despite your wishful thinking. Doubtless, like many other naive and essentially juvenile posters here, your willingness to embrace propaganda might endear you to others sharing your little dinghy of desperation but in truth when the cycle turns you will still be as insignificant as you were last year.

    Get real, get a life and stop using current travails as an excuse for your inertia.

    Well I think you're talking through your @rse squire!

    "House prices reflect and do not dictate economies ... " What utter, complete balderdash.

    I observe our economy of the last 10 years.

    ___________________________________________

    Manufacturing - in decline.

    Real employment - down.

    Public sector employment - up.

    Burden of taxation - doubled. (Treasury collects twice what it did in 1997)

    Consumer Debt - more than doubled from 650 billion to 1.35 trillion.

    Inflation - consistently higher than the [email protected] published by the 'government'.

    ______________________________________

    Now, if house prices reflected our economy, house prices would have fallen in the last ten years - to reflect the abysmal state of the economy. The only thing that has kept it going is a massive increase in taxation fueling massive government expenditure and a huge increase in consumer debt.

    An economist aged 5 could tell you this is not a healty economy. Yet, house prices have climbed. ('Could it have anything to do with cheap credit and nothing to do with the economy?' he asked incredulously.

    I rest my case. QED.

  4. I've been struggling to find words to describe what is going on. The best I can come up with is 'Reality Gap'.

    The reality is that Gordenron's changes to dividend taxation in pensions has [email protected] pensions for many people with an estimated ONE HUNDRED BILLION MISSING NOW THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN IN FUNDS if he had left the situation as it was.

    He says 'it was the right thing for the economy, and I'd do it again.' Message to Gordon: You are doing it again you [email protected], it is a continuing action, every year you help yourself to another 5 BILLION.

    So we have a big 'Reality Gap' - The gap between the actual situation and what he says is the situation is at least a couple of light years.

    He says 'the strongest economy in Europe for 10 years' or some such drivel. As someone above pointed out - this 'economic strength' has been the result of 700 billion borrowed by the people of this country to fund their housing and consumer habits.

    Again, a huge Reality Gap.

    I feel like I'm in Alice in Wonderland. Only it's Gordon in Never-Never Land. Never tell the truth. Never admit you were wrong.

    Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.

    You know he'll be up on loads of posters if he becomes PM don't you? Everywhere you go that weird, lop-sided smile will beam down on you.

    He is Big Brother.

  5. Surely, if HIPS were to have any effect at all it will be to deter vendors from putting their homes on the market. Which will lead to a shortage of houses on the market, which will lead to upward pressure on prices? :blink:

    It can do. But the housing market is complex and subtle. It is not like say the Cocoa futures market. It is a racing certainty HIPs will lead to less houses on the market. But the London market is nothing like the Swindon market and neither of them are anything like the West Country market etc.

    I've seen stagnant markets where very little comes on - there are buyers about but few properties and, sure, prices rise. In fact agents get so desperate they'll tell vendors anything to get instructions and then, despite plenty of buyers, because the prices are nuts, they don't sell.

    I've also seen stagnant markets where there are few houses on the market and even fewer buyers.

    I've no idea. I've been around property most of my life. I've bought and sold plenty. I know HIPs will choke supply. I have no idea what it will do to prices. In London (fairy land) where there are lots of overseas cash buyers - and the housing is nuttily priced anyway - I think HIPs may have little effect.

    Out here in semi-rural suburbia, it will have a big effect.

  6. I try hard to be a good guy. Karma and all that. I don't want to have to have another thousand incarnations to move up the spiritual ladder. No thank you. I don't know if I have been here before but, while I have had a good life to date, some people close to me have endured what I think it would not be an exaggeration to describe as 'hell on earth'.

    So, not too keen to do this over and over again.

    But that Gordenron bloke - he fills me with feelings that I am ashamed of. I look over my son's shoulder playing a 'shoot em up' game on a PS2 (whatever) and the enemy soldiers all look like Gordenron. That sly, shifty smile!

    I am deeply ashamed.

  7. My eldest son works part time in Tesco.

    He gets paid overtime for unsocial hours - you don't get that in a lot of jobs. He gets treated well, free shares doshed out recently.

    I have Tesco shares in my pension.

    Won't hear a word said against them.

    I hope that in 10 years time they run the developed world and that the shares I own have multiplied 10 fold.

    If so, I may get a decent pension after all.

    Long live Tesco. Hail Tesco. Success to Tesco.

    p.s. These serve yourself tills are great. This morning in Tesco Express. A woman at the normal till and an old boy waiting behind her. Out of habit me and a kid in front of me lined up behind the old boy. Woman on the till said 'Would you like to use the self-serve tills?'

    The kid and I jumped to and used the self serve tills. I only had a loaf of bread, the kid had some sweets. We were both out of the shop and the old boy was still waiting.

    Bit of a worry long term though. If Tesco, Sainsbury, Morrison, Waitrose et al cut the amount of checkout staff by half - lot of jobs are going to go.

  8. ...and, when the EAS think that they could give "free HIP" just by sticking those £700 on top of the already inflated price and get away with it, it's wehere they will go wrong. badly

    I deal with EAs. I have not met one yet who is willing to take the HIP on the chin and regard it as another overhead if a vendor pulls out. They already get stuffed for the price of newspaper adverts, mailings, listings on web portals etc i.e. they believe they take quite enough of a risk already. The best bit about HIPs is the fact that they're out of date the second they are produced. Would you accept the search in a HIP produced say as recently as two months ago. I know I wouldn't. No Home Condition Report. Complete load of toss forced on the house sellers by an imcompetent and arrogant bunch of know-alls in the government.

  9. Why use the devisive term 'gambling'?

    Borrowing to make a considered and caerful investment is not in my book a gamble. Just about every business we see around us today started with personal borrowing or required borrowing to expand.

    Your seond point is invalid. We do not know how people are investing thier MEW. You assume its all for UK B2L, I do not.

    Again out assets are also at an all time high, so the borrowing isnt purely reckless, it has a backbone of sorts.

    To dogbox ... you said you enjoyed my rant about my brother-in-law earlier ... you didn't respond to the challenge at the bottom of the post.

  10. Right I am probably being thick I know but can someone explain to me how/why HIPS are going to have such an alledged big impact on property prices?

    (After 1st June 2007)

    Mr Vendor.

    Hello Mr Estate Agent, thanks for coming around to value my home.

    Mr Estate Agent

    Blah, blah, blah, we would market this property for £225k.

    Mr Vendor

    What are your fees?

    Mr Estate Agent

    They are the amount we charge! :unsure: Ba boom!

    It is now law that you must have prepare a Home Information Pack before you can put a house on the market. This has to be provided by you but we will prepare it and include it in our fees. So, we'll charge you 2%. But, if you decide not to sell, or the property does not sell, for whatever reason, if you take it off the market or instruct another estate agent instead of us, you will be liable for the cost of the HIP which is £695.00 - because it has cost us money to prepare it and we're not prepared to be bigger mugs than we already are.

    Mr Vendor

    FECK THAT! Are you telling me if I just want to try my property on the market and it doesn't sell, it's going to cost me £695

    Mr Estate Agent

    Yes

    Mr Vendor

    Well, feck that for a game of soldiers. I and the estimated 20% to 30% of vendors who put their properties on the market on a whim, to 'test the market', to find out 'what it's really worth', to see if 'we'll get enough for it to allow us to trade up' etc will not put our house on the market.

    Mr Estate Agent

    We've been telling the daft government ever since they came up with the idea of HIPs that that is what would happen. And we told them that it will restrict supply further and either cause the whole market to stagnate and crash, or it will put prices up even further. Either way, it is not good news.

  11. Im one of the less astute then.

    Debt is the tool of the trade and in fact a gift. Why not use other people's money fixed at low rates in order to aquire assets?

    ...

    If I repay £50k on mortgage I save £2500 per year in interest, so £25000 over 10 years. If I had invested that £50k into a £250000 property with an 80% mortgage the increase in value after 10 years would have been at least £250000 (a lot more probably) and the interest paid largely by a tenant.

    Yes, we all know this. And we've read about it here 7 million times.

    We all know what happened in the past.

    Will a 250k house be 'worth' 500k in 10 years time? Or will it be 'worth' 250k in 10 years time? Last time it took property 12 years to recover. Property now is, apparently, as 'over-valued' as it was in 1988.

    Is our debt-based economy stable? Will higher oil prices import more inflation requiring higher interest rates? Will China put its prices up as its people demand better working and living conditions. Unable to make many things nowadays, we will have to pay those higher prices.

    Is the cost of government going to increase? Answer yes - Brown is in so much debt taxation must increase. Council tax increase above inflation every year. There is talk of re-valuing - even higher property taxes to come.

    So, of course looking back we can all see that over 10 years your 50k would have been better off in property. But what about the COMING ten years. Are you putting your 50k where your mouth is? Or still investing in Berlin?

    You live in the Hertford area. An example please of a property costing 250k now - how much rent it will achieve and whether the rent will cover the interest (on 250k assuming you MEW to get the 50k deposit - which is what many BTLetters have done - they do LOVE a leveraged risk!)

    A year ago I could imagine why you might say the market has some steam left. But NOW! The media is full of reports of the death of the property market - a bubble - a crash etc - it must be filtering through to SOME people.

    Not many people are in a position to devote 25% of their after tax income into providing for their future. And, even if they are, you need, as you point out, a 30 year period to really get the benefits. So 25% of your income on a 'pension', 50% on a mortgage ... doesn't leave a lot for food, clothes, car, phone, gas, electricity, council tax, water rates, petrol, road tax, car insurance, car servicing, MOTs, tyres, exhausts, school trips, birthday presents, Christmas, holiday ....

    and, if you're nuts enough to want to have children ... remember them? ... how many hundreds of thousands does it cost now to raise a child for 18 years.

    I've two children. My brother-in law and sister-in-law have none. Both retired early. Both on big, final salary indexed pensions. My wife and I - self employed most of our lives - income gone on living and raising our children.

    Last Saturday morning, 18 year old son came home after a night on the tiles with two mates - youngest son already had 2 mates around playing in the garden. Big fry-up ensued. Result. House full of noise and people - having a laugh and enjoying life. I imagine the picture around my brother in law's house. A stroll up the village to get the morning papers, back and a morning spent in deathly silence listening to the clocks tick and hating each other's company after 30 years of childless marriage made bearable by the fact they worked different shifts.

    What the feck am I talking about? Absolutely no idea. Just wanted to get it off my chest.

    No, I know. I wouldn't swap place with my brother-in-law and sister-in-law for all the gold plated pensions in the world. Thanks to Gordon Brown I'm probably going to work until I'm put in my box (unless, at last, one of my businesses hits the jackpot - should be due soon - law of averages!) - and a lot of my generation are going to do the same.

    What about you youngsters? Can't afford a mortgage. Have to pay high rents so can't afford to pay a lot into a pension. Final salary schemes few and far between.

    You are, I think, fecked. And I, for one, am pretty pissed off about it. It is not the future you should have.

  12. Good point. I personally only know one person that has MEWed. Socially, is it a dark and guilty secret?

    Absolutely. Asking someone how big their mortgage is seems to be just as rude as asking how much they earn. It's tantamount to asking 'what are you worth?'

    I do know people that have mewed because I am rude enough to ask (sometimes) along the lines of 'you sly sod, how did you afford that ... new car, conservatory, kitchen, bathroom, garden makeover, fantastic holiday etc.'

    I have heard the phrases 'stuck it on the mortgage', 'house has doubled in price so ...' quite a few times over the last 4 or 5 years.

    And, of course, extensions nowadays that would have cost say £20k not many years ago, now cost 60k. I know people locally that have added 100k to their mortgage to have an extension built - confident, of course, that it will add 200k to the value of the house. In some cases, they are correct.

    I built a single storey extension on the back of my house in the mid 90s. It gave me a 16' x 12' dining room and a 12' x 10' kitchen. I built it myself (had a brickie for a few days at £60 a day) and it cost me about £6k in materials.

    I took a year or so to build it and paid for it out of income because I was determined not to increase my mortgage.

    Feck me, I feel like I'm from a different age sometimes.

  13. I couldn't give a toss about whether he is gay, straight, black pretending to be white, a woman pretending to be a man or a large 11 year old boy with gland problems.

    I do care about the fact that he wants to tax me to death so other people can either sit on their @rses all day with a gold-plated pension (MPs and a million more public sector workers to add to the 4 million we already had).

    My wife started a job working for a council in the next town from us some months ago. It's already got to the point of me having to say 'Don't tell me any more, this is beginning to really wind me up.'

    In my local area, some time ago as part of some big reshuffle, the local authority changed from **** Borough Council to **** District Council (or vice versa - don't know, don't care).

    But I do care about the fact that every street sign in the borough (which has the council name in small lettering on it) is being changed at vast cost.

    They really do know how to spend our money wisely.

    [email protected]

  14. Oh, if only you lot would get organized!

    If you got together and bought 10 old bangers (taxed, insured and MOTed - natch) and parked them in exclusive roads in Hampstead, Fulham, Chelsea (legal parking only of course) etc - and hand painted them to say 'can't afford a house so I live in my car' etc - and had the odd party - stereo on full blast, lots of mates 'around' - maybe the portable barbecue out. Sat in a chair on the pavement from time to time. Knocked on the odd front door asking if you could use their bathroom.

    Man, you could cause riots by the residents and you'd get SO MUCH MEDIA COVERAGE.

    And you could have a lot of fun applying to the council for a Resident's Parking Permit. You could ask for your home to be valued for council tax purposes and offer to pay your council tax.

  15. I would say that througout my life, with the exception of just the last few years, most people who bought property had NO expectation it would go up.

    For the simple reason that property has always seemed expensive - a big commitment, a big leap into the dark for FTBs etc - and so people have generally thought they are buying at the top of the market.

    In years gone by people thought the impact of their mortgage would diminish by their salary going up - not by interest rate movements or by property inflation.

    It's just these last few years (and I blame the Property Porn Media - TV and Newspapers and, of course, Brown's tax raid on our pensions) - for the obsession with property as an investment rather than just as a place to live - a place you could call your own when the mortgage is paid off.

    In general it is important to remember that:

    The vast majority of people are stupid.

    The vast majority of people are desperate.

    The vast majority of people think property is a one way bet.

    Sounds like a business opportunity! Ah, what's that you say? Inside Track ... ?

  16. The unelected Lords actually do a decent job of protecting the population against short-termist, opportunist governments. Remember, as they are unelected they have no electorate to pander to and can vote with their beliefs and consciences, unlike the commons.

    Completely scrapping the system of hereditary peers will be the biggest mistake this country ever makes IMO.

    Absolutely agree. If you watch the House of Lords on the box, the standard and conduct of debate is first class. People with a vast experience of every aspect of life bringing their experience to bear on the legislation produced by the political opportunists in the Commons.

    The House of Lords is the buffer between democracy and totalitarianism. Labour, Liberal and Tory peers alike all seem to be able bring common sense to bear on governments' dafter ideas.

    I believe that no-one has the experience of life necessary to make a good Prime Minister until they are 60 years old. The present incumbent and the twerp in waiting are proof positive of this.

    I quite like Cameron. But I'd like him a lot more if he had grown up children. If he'd had to make his own way in the world. If he'd run and built up a business and then taken a high level public sector job. i.e. if he'd seen life from all angles and had the wisdom that only experience can bring.

  17. Well you are making an assumption - that prices will level off or fall slightly - the mythical 'soft landing'.

    Can you give me one example of a soft landing among the myriad examples of bust following boom?

    Even if such an exotic beast exists, what makes you think we should have one now?

    Sounds very much like wishful thinking to me. Hardly balanced argument since you haven't yet put forward an argument.

    Firstly, this is THE HOME of wishful thinking.

    Secondly, in my area prices peaked in 2003, levelled off, fell a bit during 2004 and 2005 and have regained lost ground to be a bit - between 5% and 10% according to Land Registry FACTS - above 2003 levels.

    We had a boom - I couldn't describe the last 4 years as anything other than a soft landing.

    The touching faith of some people here in the imminent crash reminds me of the 'Free Beer Tomorrow' signs you used to see in pubs years ago. Although, to be fair, the punters knew they were a joke. Here the belief borders on religious fervour.

  18. Did not Mervyn King warn people months back against taking on £150k mortgages ?

    He did indeed. If I remember correctly he said ...

    "Brothers (and sisters) it has become clear that having just a 150k mortgage is no help to the rest of society. Every man jack (and woman) amongst us has a moral obligation to move their mortgage up to 300k. Fear NOT the repayments for I, the Lord of all money, the creator of credit and the master of debt, will ensure that interest rates are dropped so you can all make the repayments our economy depends on.

    Our enemies would have you SAVE! They would prefer if you hoarded your money and bought goods for CASH! This is no way to run an economy. If people did this it would be tantamount to treason. No economy can exist without ever-increasing debt my brothers.

    So, fret not and waste NO TIME. Gird your loins and fill in your mortgage applications. For I say to ye - Ask and you shall receive and, in due course, of course, you will repay.

    Now go forth and multiply - and stop wasting my time."

    That may not be verbatim, but it was the gist of it.

  19. Yeah but this type of property speculator keeps taking equity out to buy more houses. That's how they've ended up with so many houses. The ones they bought early on were good investments but the ones they've been buying in the last few years are not.

    On average if they only have 10% equity per property then a mere 10% fall in house prices will wipe out all their equity.

    A mere 20% fall in house prices will put them in negative equity on a massive scale.

    Unfortunately, if you look at property prices for Southampton over the last 7 years, I'd say he probably has a lot more equity than that.

    Who knows what his plans are. If I had a couple of million in equity, I'd be unloading and looking through the yacht brochures.

    Just imagine - your own boat in the Med, ocean going, of course - and enough interest to live on comfortably - the Greek islands - slowly - mooch about from one beautiful bay to another. Or the Balearics - some nice bits if you keep away from the British. Not give a twopenny feck about house prices or BTL or Gordon Brown or the tax burden or pensions. Feck the lot of them. They're all nuts.

    Why don't 20 of you youngsters on here get together and buy a chateau? Do a bit of farming, have a few gites, those of you who write software work remotely etc. There has to be more to life than working like a dog and dreaming of a house price crash.

    Edit: What a giveaway! Yes I did have hair down to my @rse in the late 60s. Yes we did think we could change the world. Yes we have fecked up, big time (to use the common vernacular).

    They pave paradise, put up a parking lot.

    Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

  20. A mate of mine wanted to 'release' some of the equity in his house, but he didn't want to increase his mortgage.

    He did a rough calculation - end terrace house - has about 4000 bricks in it - house is worth about 200k. If you take the bricks away from a house, you haven't got a house - so he valued each brick at £50 each.

    He reckoned he could take every other brick out of the walls in say every fourth course of bricks and the house would still stand up and still be pretty waterproof.

    To test the theory he removed two bricks and went to see his local bank manager. "Instead of re-mortgaging, I'd like you to buy these two house bricks. I reckon they're worth £50 each."

    To his surprise the bank manager said; "Hand me the bricks and stick your bolleaux on the table."

    Seems they want to own all your house, not just part of it.

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