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lets get it right

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Posts posted by lets get it right

  1. Hyperinflation would cause asset prices to keep on rising. However those with mortgages will be crushed as interest rates would rise to try and abate it.

    Which is why hyperinflation is a red herring. Why do people keep mentioning it? As you say interest rates will be raised as necessary to combat inflation. This may have other effects but these are deemed preferable to inflating ourselves completely out of the ability to sell goods and services abroad.

    Mentioning hyperinflation - hysteria. We've had 15 years of relatively benign interest rates and inflation. There is SOME inflationary pressure in the economy at the moment - largely energy and government spending caused - but it is being (to some extent) dealt with by rising interest rates. If inflation is deemed at some point in the future to be under control they will come down again.

    Strikes me the crashsayers on here are now relying on some sort of financial armageddon to trigger the crash. Whilst accepting the growth in money supply is unhealthy, that real inflation is higher than the published figures and that an economy based on consumer borrowing cannot continue forever - nonetheless - the endless forecasts of imminent meltdown on here are pure hysteria.

    I see the FTSE has recovered from its little slip recently. I see a housing market that is still shuffling along okay. There's not much to see really - certainly no hyperinflation.

  2. Interesting - it is clear Labour will never allow Scottish independence. Looks like they let the genie out of the bottle by creating the Scottish parliament.

    I wonder what will they do if the SNP have their referendum and the Scots decide to leave the union. They will have to ignore the democratic wishes of the majority of the Scots if the referendum is won by Salmond.

  3. I've just remembered something - you youngsters won't have a clue about this. There was a time, just a few decades ago, where the Trades Unions slowly but surely buggered British industry. Made us completely uncompetitive and allowed first Japan and then other Pacific Rim countries to replace our manufacturing industries.

    Most of the union leaders and shop stewards were gruff Scots who would lead a wildcat strike at the drop of a hat. So I guess one way or another the Scots have had their revenge. They decimated our industries in the 60s and 70s paving the way for the 'knowledge' economy which, at some point in the fairly near future, is going to be responsible for the biggest recession in living memory.

    Just as things begin to get sticky - Scots leave us in the shite on our own.

    I daresay we deserve it.

  4. The SNP want to repeal the 1707 Act of Union (economic and political), not the 1603 act which united the crowns.

    So we get to keep Her Maj (joy), instead of President Alex (or similar).

    I don't think they have a clearly stated policy of enforced repatriation of Scots nationals residing outwith Scotland - so please feel free to keep Gordon Broon, Jocky Reid et al.

    Cause we sure don't want 'em.

    Brown is non negotiable. He's not welcome in this country.

  5. I was hoping someone with a grasp of constitutional affairs could provide a definite answer ... If Scotland leaves the Union, would a Scot be able to be PM - or a member of the then English House of Commons.

    I have this image of Alex Salmon moving into Balmoral as his equivalent of Chequers.

    I hate the bloke but fair play to him. I'd love the Scots to give the English aristocracy a real bloody nose.

  6. It would be helpful if the Scots could make up their own minds about whether or not they want to be independent and just get get on with it one way or the other rather than boring us to death on the subject.

    Well, as originally posted, they will get to make their own minds up in 2010 if the SNP win power in the forthcoming elections.

    The question is, how could we have a Scottish Prime Minister (or Chancellor or any MP at Westminster), if Scotland became independent? As far as I know a Dutch, German, French or Italian can't sit as an MP at Westminster so why, after independence, should a Scot?

    If this is so - it is going to get bloody. Gordon Brown is not going to sit by and watch Alex Salmon break the Union and see himself done out of a job.

  7. Don't forget foreign buyers, buying as 'an investment'. These guys will sell as soon as the market heads south. Expect a splash!

    These foreign buyers are rolling in it are they not? They may not sell but just ride out the storm. Lots of people do that when a market turns. How many people hang on to a share far too long convinced it will turn around? Answer - most people. Property is different though. History suggests if you can hang on for 12 years you will NEVER be a loser.

    Hard to shift that mentality. Even I have it.

  8. What's that expression ... 'Man is born free but everywhere is in chains'. Sorry, don't know who to attribute it to.

    Still, it strikes me that it doesn't matter how good the idea is, Labour or the Tories will never wear it.

    Our society and our economy is now hitched firmly to the wagon of consumer borrowing.

    Imagine a nation of free men - property owners one and all. Beholden to no-one. You know, like America set out to be. We'd all sit in bed all day! Nothing would ever get done! Although, of course, what evidence we have of societies where men own a bit of land and are self-sufficient - suggests that a lot of sensible work is done. Crops are planted and grown, fences are mended, buildings are built and repaired, livestock are reared etc.

    Instead of that we have people sitting in front of computers all day creating logos and developing 'brand identity' and organizing 'events' and coming up with 'marketing' plans and 'advertising' campaigns and all sorts of other utterly trivial and meaningless jobs they do to pay the mortgage.

  9. I think a Navy term is appropriate for the state of the housing market in these last days of the miracle economy:

    DIW

    (dead in the water)

    Surely it is clear beyond doubt that the housing market's requirement for an endless influx of FTBs was ameliorated by the growth in supply of BTLetters.

    So drawing any inference from the supposed lack, or otherwise, of FTBs in the market is pointless.

  10. Slavery was abolished 200 years ago.

    Yeah right. Slavery is alive and well, just a lot more subtle.

    Wage-slave, mortgage-slave.

    "I hate my job but I have a mortgage to pay."

    So you get up every day, against your will, waste your life commuting to a job you hate and return home at night so knackered all you want to do is fall asleep in front of the telly.

    The banks and capitalism in general have the majority of people nicely enslaved. Wonder if they put something in the water to pacify us?

  11. You need to read some basic history books before spouting such nonsense.

    What drivel are ye spouting woman?

    Oh no, you're right. The Scots took over England and ruled us from Edinburgh.

    My mistake.

    "Davidson fails to mention that England was prepared to absorb Scotland by force if need be. At the time of the treaty an English spy reported: 'I never saw a nation so universally wild'. He said that most Scots cursed the nobles who betrayed them into Union, and that for every man who supported the treaty there were 50 against it. English regiments had been marched to the border should they be required.

    Scotland was on the brink of a national rebellion against absorption by England. That events took a less dramatic course was primarily due to the capitulation of the Scottish ruling class who ratified the Treaty of Union by 110 votes to 67 on 16 January 1707."

    That's from a history book.

    Obviously not from your version though.

  12. To some extent the Scots' dislike of the English is understandable - after all we took over their country and forced them to join us. The great Scottish estates are owned by the English. And the industry there was owned by the English and the Scots were exploited.

    But, someone said in response to my original question about Brown - he'd just get a safe seat in England. But is a foreign national allowed to become an MP? Wouldn't he have to apply for citizenship first. Wouldn't he have to prove he can speak and read English and take a vow of allegiance or something?

    What about Balmoral? Will they take it over and kick our wonderful royal family out. God bless you ma'am and your interesting progeny too.

    If that is the case, BRING IT ON!

  13. Some interesting comments made there by the O.P.

    I, as a Scot, used to believe in the Union. I dont any more. Despite the fact that Scotland is a Net CONTRIBUTOR to the Union, all we ever seem to hear from the English is how we are lower than parasites. Fine. If thats what you really think, let us go our own way then, please. I'm not sure why there aren't demonstrations in the streets of England to be rid of us, based on the way the English talk.

    So, thanks O.P. for making more and more Scots (any and all who read this thread) feel its time to do it our way. Your doing us a favour.

    You want rid of us. Lots and lots of us (and growing) want rid of you. Lets have it them.

    Dont forget to take your Nuclear deterent with you when you leave. And the rotting hulks of the past generation of Submarines taht you dont want on your own doorstep. By now.

    PS oh, and as for Alex Salmon, I think he is a pompous little ass. I cant stand him either. But he is a means to an end. I wasn't much on Bliar either, now you mention it.

    It's sad the way you feel about us and we feel about you. I can assure you it never used to be like that. When I was a kid there were lots of Irish, Scots and Welsh people in the working class area of London I grew up in. I worked in the building industry for the first 20 years of my working life and have worked with hundreds of Scots and Irish people. I'm best part Irish myself and have no great affinity with the English - apart from the fact I was born here.

    I can't put my finger on what went wrong. In my defence - my antipathy to the Scots now is in RESPONSE to the utterings of Salmon and his ilk. Not because I dislike people who are different (in any way, race, creed or colour) from me. My attitude is 'if you don't want to be part of us anymore, fine - do the other then'. I am sure you feel the same. As I say though, in my defence and in defence of other English people - I think most English people would vote against separation - and not for any economic reasons. I know I like the idea that north of me is a wonderful, beautiful part of my country that I can visit any time I want peopled by people who, on the whole, are cultured and decent and different enough to make life interesting.

    I don't know whether the Union is cash beneficial to Scotland, England, both or neither. I don't care either (well I do if the current situation is manifestly unfair to particular parties - in which case - put that right - don't break the union.)

    On a purely selfish, 'world stage' level - I think we're stronger together.

  14. You mentioned on another thread that you knew people in your street who lost their jobs. What industries were they in? Would you agree some are more vulnerable than others?

    I was a project manager in construction. Another guy was an engineer of some sort for Marconi. Another guy was a director of a small building company that relied on public sector work for most of their income. The other chap was an import manager at an airfreight agents.

    Obviously some people are more vulnerable than others. But I can tell you one thing for sure, everyone then was worried about losing their jobs - even public sector workers. And this, of course, may come to pass again. Local and national taxation is, once again, very high. (Thanks AGAIN Labour, same old, same old ...) Yet hospitals are laying staff off. Even higher taxation is going to kill the economy. New Labour (same old [email protected]) are between a rock and a hard place - they've turned us from one of the lowest cost economies in Europe to one of the highest cost economies, they've taxed us all to death in ways we had never even thought of before and they still need more and more money to try to keep the balls in the air. (That's where I'd like to see him - after I'd put my boot up his @rse).

    The guy who used to run his own building company, after a couple of years on the dole, got a job at the Met Centre in Bracknell. Guess what? They moved lock, stock and barrel to Devon a while ago and he is now on the dole again. Only now he is over 60 and despairs of working again. Welcome to the modern world. Lucky to hold a job down for 10 years now.

  15. Well, it was a high risk investment after all! Seriously though... the lose your job thing is a bit tiring. If you lose your job you are generally screwed no matter what. You have to sign on the dole and move back in with your parents.

    What a weird, young-personish thing to say. Move back in with your parents? What if they're dead? What if you've got a wife and kids.

    'Sorry darling, sorry kids, you're going to have to learn to stand on your own feet now - I'm off back to Mum's.'

    Bizarre.

    Incidentally, if you lose your job is is not a 'bit tiring'. For many people it is a complete disaster. For blokes in their 40s suddenly on the scrapheap for the first time in their lives it can be devastating. Didn't do me any harm though. Been self-employed since. Never work for anyone else again.

  16. There is clearly some mix-up with words here.

    The equity in your home may be part of your 'net worth' but it is certainly not part of your 'disposable income' unless, of course, you have signed up for an 'equity release' plan.

    I wonder, in the future, how many people will be sitting on an 800k house and their kids will be thinking 'we'll be loaded when Mum and Dad pop their clogs' and then, when Mum and Dad do depart the kids find a bank owns most of the house which has funded their parents' lifestyle over the last 30 years.

  17. The hidden problem in the UK is that interest only period can be 25 years and the bnanks don't check at any stage (as far as I've ever seen) whether the mortgagee has started putting money aside to pay the capital.

    Why on earth should the bank check that you are putting money aside to repay a loan? Are you a child? Do you want to be treated like a child?

    They don't give a monkey's. Their position is well protected. Fail to repay after 25 years and it will either be:

    a) Thankyou Mr Warwick, please leave the house you thought was yours. It isn't. It is ours. We are going to sell it for a knock-down price at auction and get our money back or

    B) Can't pay the money back Mr. Warwick? No problem, no problem at all in fact. Just keep paying the interest on the loan and we'll wait until you die. Because, guess what, we like people owing us money forever. It just makes our lives so EASY. Lend you 200k (most of which is not 'real' money) and have you pay interest on it until the day you get put in your box. And, even then, the house will still be ours and your dependents can have what's left over.

  18. If i could see a place that i could afford that i would be happy with i would go for it.

    Prob not what you want to hear but i am on here because i cant and misery loves company. ;)

    We could be all wrong and the place that you have seen could end up out of your reach. If the way out of the economic mess is hyper inflation all your savings will get wrecked so if you can afford it now, i would go for it

    Why do people on here persist with the idea that hyper inflation is some sort of 'option'?

    We already have the worst balance of trade in history and, contrary to popular belief, we have not yet reached some sort of state of global pre-eminence where people will trade us goods for money which we have simply run off on a printing press.

    There was a time when you could inflate your way out of debt but ask yourself this question ... why has every government since the Tory government of 1979 been OBSESSED with bringing inflation under control and keeping it a nominal 2%?

    The answer, in case you struggle, is that everyone KNOWs we simply cannot put the prices of the goods and services we do export up.

    Please tell me why you think there is any way on earth that we can allow inflation to creep into the economy.

    How would it work? We already make bugger all because it is too expensive to manufacture goods here. We are already exporting service industry jobs .... how can we possibly put the price UP of the goods and services we do export?

    The big difference between now and the 1970s is globalization. Now we have real and serious competition in the world's markets. And our balance of trade figures show we are not doing very well. We know that we are suffering inflation nudging 5%. But the Government is offering public sector workers below the (bull) target inflation figure of 2%. What does this tell you? It tells me that, come what may, inflation is not going to be let out of the bottle again. We, as a country, simply cannot afford it.

    So, please disabuse yourself of the idea that hyper inflation is an option. It isn't. You buying anything made in Zimbabwe?

  19. In so much as that twerp Brown is responsible for HPI by building a stable economy on consumer borrowing ... if the SNP win power in Scotland they are committed to a referendum in 2010 on a complete break with England i.e. the break up of the UK.

    If the Scots decide to go their separate way (good riddance in my opinion, used to like Scots and Welsh - grew up in an area with lots of them - but for some reason Alex Salman and his ilk make me want to vomit) presumably it would have a massive knock on effect on the English parliament. i.e no more Scots MPs.

    This is going to get interesting. If Brown becomes PM he could see his job taken away from him in 2010 not by the electorate but by a constitutional change which will mean he can't have a seat in the English parliament. He won't be an English national. He'll be no different from a German, Frenchman, or Dutchman ... just another fellow citizen of the EU.

    Wonder what extraordinary powers he will / can take to prevent Alex Salmon from taking Scotland out of the United Kingdom.

    And, just to keep on topic, what effect will this have on house prices at a time when people who took endowment policies out in the late 80s will be forced sellers as they realise the endowment will not pay off their mortgage.

  20. Oh dear. You really should understand this basic error you have made.

    Explanation:

    House costs 100000. Deposit of 10000 paid initially. House prices go up 4%. Gains = 4000 pounds in 1 year on initial 10 thousand pound investment.

    10000 deposit paid into savings account. Best return approx 700 pounds pre tax. Maybe 450 pounds post tax.

    Putting money into a taxable savings account is the biggest madness of all.

    Yes, that works both ways of course.

    You put your hard saved for 10k into a property, house falls from 100k to 90k - you've just done your deposit. Think it can NEVER happen? It's happened before and IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. Oh and then you lose your job and can't pay the mortgage. And then, suddenly, you have to sell.

  21. and I can remember sailing through your great crash 1 with not a hiccup in either my house purchasing selling or my job.

    Was it really all that bad I ask myself?

    Obviously not for you.

    In the late 80s - in the middle of the boom - my brother bought a flat in Oxfordshire for 80k that just a few years earlier would have been half that price. A couple of years later - recession in full swing - he, quite literally, dropped the keys through the letter box of the building society and disappeared into a caravan and the black economy. He COULD NOT sell it and cut his losses because the price he could have got for it would not have covered the mortgage - so the Building Society would not have relinquished the deeds. Don't ever forget - if you have a mortgage you do NOT OWN the property you live in. If you owned it you would have the deeds.

    9 years later he rejoined the normal economy. As soon as he rejoined the PAYE system, the Building Society appeared out of the blue demanding their money. He was potless at the time and agreed terms to pay a debt off that had mushroomed in his years in the black economy. He is still paying it off now and, as he is nearly 60, will be paying it off for the rest of his life.

    I myself was made redundant for the first time in my life and, at one point in the early 90s, 4 out of the 10 men living in the cul-de-sac I lived in, were all out of work at the same time. None of us had ever been out of work before.

    Your name isn't Rip Van Winkle is it? I have lived in the affluent South East all my life. We're not talking about a northern town where one employer going broke puts half the town out of work. In the early 90's everyone feared for their job or, if they ran a business, for their business.

  22. Thank you for posting that. It has helped me re-focus. I was toying with the idea of buying but it has reminded me what a complete, fecking lunatic asylum we live in. I mean Balham! My Aunt used to rent a flat years ago in Gypsy Hill. It was bloody huge. The lounge must have been 20' square. The bedrooms at the back must have been 25' x 12'

    She and my Uncle had one floor but, as I say, it was massive. For us kids visiting them - with 7 of us living in a 2 bed, 1 boxroom council house - we assumed they were loaded.

    The flat was in a Victorian house with about 4 floors - might have had an attic - definitely had a basement.

    Although we liked her flat, we hated the area as it was so rough - and we lived on a rough council estate ourselves!

    Based on the valuation above - that property must be worth in excess of £2 million now.

    Where are my happy pills?

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