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lets get it right

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Everything posted by lets get it right

  1. Not a fecking chance. And some of the senior council employees will take cushy jobs in the private sector service providers. Nothing changes.
  2. Yes but their non-participation in the market has had little effect other than to reduce transaction numbers. Around here, I am told, FTB stuff is just not selling - but prices are not falling much - not many people HAVE to sell. The banks and the government have seen to that.
  3. Well the market is not on its knees where I live. It's slow and sale prices are lower than asking - and some aren't selling - BUT - it is still ticking along. The bond markets .... not so easy for the bond vigilantes to move the market when the BOE is poised to buy as much as it needs to. I read everything you and others say about the market, the finance, the falls .... and then I go and view houses that are getting offers - below asking it is true, but some are accepted and, as I say, the market staggers on.
  4. Hmmm, I know an agent in Bournemouth so I keep an eye on the market there. I know there are a lot of retired people there, but they don't seem to dominate the market. Seems to me Bournemouth has a bit of a buzz about it these days and the property market is doing well (I am told). There are no areas with 90% 60+ers. And, even in areas with a high percentage of retired people - people retire there for a reason As they pop their clogs or go into homes, there is another generation coming up behind them to take their places.
  5. So they are now quite happy to keep lending large amounts of money to people with the right risk profile to keep the market ticking along so the money already lent into the market is not at risk. The foolish people with BTLs will be fine if they are not over exposed and for as long as people pay the daft rents demanded. As long as they stay in work and interest rates stay low (which seems to be in everyone's interest at the moment, apart from savers and they don't seem to count) - people with big mortgages will be fine too.
  6. Well I know one serial mover but that's all. Lots of my peers have lived in the same house for 20 years or more while they've raised their families. The person you know who moved 12 times in 10 years - if you add 12 stamp duties and 11 estate agent fees and 12 legal fees - you probably have the price of a half-decent house. I know a few people who bought the biggest house they could either straight off - as FTBs with both partners working etc. - or maybe as their second purchase. An in-law went straight in for a 4 bed detached which (25 years later) they still live in. When they first bought I thought they were nuts - mega mortgage etc. But the years have proved them to be very wise - they've only ever paid stamp duty once and, so far, have never paid an estate agent a penny. Mortgage now paid off, they sit in a house worth half a million. I've probably wasted 25k on moving costs over the years. As for renting - I'd have to say 'can you be serious?' Each to their own. I'm on my third move now in 7 years and I can't be a r s e d with it any more.
  7. I know it said US ... but we can't be far behind. If we're typical ... 10 years ago maybe hired a film a week. Now, it's once in a blue moon.
  8. For residential mortgages that is just plain, 100% wrong. Some BTL mortgages have margin clauses - residential mortgages don't. No-one would take them out if they did. It's not in any lender's interest to turn round and say 'right, you need to pay us back 10k now to keep your loan-to-value to the agreed ratio' - unless that person is an investor and they want them to take the risk of further price drops, not the bank. From the banks' point of view, they want you in debt up to your neck and paying them interest like a good, little citizen for 25 years. If, when, you ever get free of their clutches, they'll give you another mortgage when you retire with interest deferred until you are dead, at which point they may well get the whole house back. Banks eh? Don't you just love the way they rule the world.
  9. I guess the expected answer to that is 'nothing or drops'. One thing bothers me - who is in trouble from the credit crunch? USA and Europe. Who relies on USA and Europe to buy their exports - China, India, Asia, Brazil etc. China is suffering high inflation at the moment. India too. If they carried on inflating at 8% when we (theoretically) are inflating at 2%, they'll start catching us up - in terms of wages and house prices - pretty quickly. Just for a laugh I looked at house prices in India the other day - when someone suggested UK IT people should go and work in India. Wow, big shock. High house prices in the cities - comparable with Western prices. So .... given that a massive recession in the West is in no-one's interest - certainly not Chindia's or anyone else that relies on the West to buy their exports - maybe inflation of say 5% a year for 15 years is the way out of this global mess - for everyone. Sure, wages will lag prices in the heavy deficit paying down stage, but, if recovery and growth are established - maybe wages will creep up too. I'm beginning to think the idea of a crash is just wishful thinking. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see one, it's just that 7 years of waiting for an over-valued housing market to correct means my rose tinted spectacles are clearing. For every year that this continues, that's another £X billion the banks are 'in the housing market' for.
  10. History rhyming? Doesn't sound like much of an argument to me. The last boom took place over 2 to 3 years and was very much concentrated in London and the South East. Didn't have BTL sharks stalking the rest of the country in those days. So, the banks' exposure was a hell of a lot lower than it is now. The number of people with mega-mortgages held against property in negative equity was relatively few and the banks could handle it. They couldn't now. They have already needed government bail outs to prevent systemic banking collapse. Which is why, it seems to me, there is nothing that won't be done/tried to keep the boat afloat.
  11. Okay ... the housing market crashed - to the day - on August 1st 1988 (think that was the day the joint tax relief was removed). The idiot chancellor of the day, Lawson I think, flagged up his intention to remove joint tax relief on mortgages for unmarried couples months before it was implemented. An already overheated housing market, drunk on the earlier removal of credit controls, came to a halt overnight and then fell progressively over about 18 months The worst of the falls were over by 1990. First time buyers could not afford to buy (following the joint mortgage tax relief removal) and the market moved down sharply. Once the market gained downward momentum, it was hard to get a floor under it. Whereas the government may have wanted to reduce interest rates to combat this, in the event the markets moved them up and down like a yo-yo. At the same time recession started that, unlike this one, really seemed to affect people. Lots of people were worried about losing their job, spending and borrowing were reined in and it took a good 6 or 7 years for confidence to grow again. Looking back - and I really 'lived through' that downturn - both in terms of selling up and downsizing to reduce my mortgage and being made redundant in 1991 - there aren't many comparisons between then and now. Now we have base rates at 0.5%, banks heavily lent into the market who cannot afford to see house prices fall (in the late 80s/90s they couldn't odds things - IRs were much higher and the government set interest rates to their own agenda - usually to try to maintain balance of payments by virtue of currency manipulation) etc. etc. The list goes on and on. If you think this crash must happen as a carbon copy of the last one - surely it's obvious already that it won't pan out that way.
  12. Yes, it's weird - if you looked at local industrial/commercial estates around here, you'd conclude that there must be mass unemployment. I can't get my head around this - everything else looks normal - okay, slow housing market with low transactions and mildly falling prices - but, apart from that, plenty of new cars, still extensions and residential property work is going on, the restaurants in town are heaving at the weekends, a pub in a local village/town we visit a couple of times a week is always busy. It's like a major recession is going on - in terms of office/factory occupation - yet it isn't affecting anyone.
  13. Notwithstanding the gravity defying abilities of the housing market, on a rare trip a couple of days ago through a local industrial/commercial office area it suddenly occurred to me that almost every other building has a To Let sign outside it. And I'm really not exaggerating - the signs are lined up one after the other - 10,000 sq ft, 140,000 sq ft, refurbished, high quality suites 1000 sq ft to 5000 sq ft. etc etc. If you want office space in Bracknell at the moment you are seriously spoiled for choice. There's a good few empty retail units too - but I've never seen anything like it when it comes to offices. And yet, in one place at least, they're building another giant development. Is it the same in your area?
  14. Of the 4 nearest town centres to me, 3 of them have Blockbuster stores. Going to be a load more empty units in the high street.
  15. I think prime areas of London were affected by the credit crunch but the debasement of our currency, 300 year low base rates and the bail out of the banking system have combined to mean that prices recovered after they sold and, by the first half of this year, were back at 2007 levels.
  16. I think it's fair to say they fell because 'the markets' decided to mess with our currency and interest rates were forced up - culminating in our exit from the ERM. Which 'market' or vested interest is going to benefit from a house price fall?
  17. I assume that was deliberate - there are just the two of us?
  18. Which 'market' WANTS house prices to crash? When a currency crashes - it's because the half of the market that is betting down beats the half that is betting up. When the price of a commodity crashes it is usually because speculators are going to make money out of it - or frost has just wiped the coffee crop out in Brazil. The only downward pressure on house prices is coming from those who stay out of the market. Their numbers are not only so small as to be utterly insignificant, they are effectively 'in the market' because they are renting from someone who really is 'in the market'. Unless you live in a tent, you're contributing.
  19. I've been on this site a lot longer than that. You can call me anything you like - but don't call me a bull. I don't want house prices to go up. I care about the future of my (and other people's) children I don't like the fact the banks have shagged the lot of us I don't like the fact that a r s e wipes in the city took millions in bonuses earnt from juggling the same money around and putting the biggest noose of debt around the UK population that they have ever had I don't like the fact that the whole economy is dependent on house prices and house equity and borrowing against that equity I don't like Gordon Brown and New Labour and regard them as criminally culpable for the mess they made of the economy between 1997 and 2010 But, I can't see house prices going down much because there is too much at stake. Over the last 6 years or so, I have made the comment a few times that 'the longer this goes on (endless HPI) the less the chances are that it will correct'. A quick and insane two year boom can correct easily enough - not that much is at risk. But a 10 year boom - with the banks up to their ears in it and half the country up to their ears in it. It's been discussed on here a lot - the be careful what you wish for scenario. After a 10 year boom a house price crash would do very few people any good. If your saved money survives, your job probably won't.
  20. None of whom are aware of what you say and who, therefore, have no reason to be interested in either a house price crash or the benefits that would accrue if people had not paid high house prices and our economy was more productive. As I said, the fact is, the banks, politicians and vast majority of people do not see the benefits of a house price crash. On the contrary, they are terrified of it and act accordingly.
  21. If these blokes are so smart, how come they're short gold when it keeps going up. I thought they knew about these things.
  22. I would have thought a council that provides sacks for old seagulls must be above reproach. I looked at a property recently that had its bins outside at the front. At first I thought it must be bin day but, on closer inspection, it turned out the property occupied the whole width of the plot, an extension had been added behind the garage and there was no way through from the back garden to the front without going through the house. I pointed this out and indicated that a drop in price in the region of £5k was surely in order. The vendor was surprised by my request and said; 'Do you know you're the first person that has noticed that, I was mentally prepared to knock off £10k if it was brought up, so I'll meet you half way and knock off £7.5k'. 'Fair enough', says I - although I still didn't make an offer. On reflection, I think that woman may be letting the council off lightly.
  23. Your best line ... "House prices are currently falling across the UK and are expected to continue falling for at least the near future, possibly indefinitely" ... tell me, whose interest is it in for that to happen? The banks? No! The politicians? No! The 'people'? Vast majority - No! (Sorry, repeating what I just said in another thread) - if it's not in anyone's interest who has a position in the market for the housing market to fall - why will it? The crux of this is the position of the banks. They are I think it's fair to say 'over-lent' into the housing market - although they are now more wary of mortgage lending, they simply cannot afford to suddenly get cold feet and let the housing market correct. They are in it for the long term and if they did anything daft they would simply be the architects of their own downfall.
  24. 450k in an outer West London suburb buys you a 1930s 3 bed semi. 2 12' x 12' receptions, a small kitchen, 2 double bedrooms, 1 boxroom, 1 bathroom. Possibly shared drive with single garage to rear. 450k 30 minutes down the M3 buys you a nice 4 bed detached, detached double garage, in a nice area etc. You get about twice as much house for your money just an extra 30 minutes away. By train the commute probably takes just another 20 minutes. You said ... 'and when buyers realise' ... do you think they don't realise now? What do you think will happen to make them suddenly aware that 30 minutes away by car they can get double the value for their money? Why don't they realise now?
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