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lets get it right

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Posts posted by lets get it right

  1. Well I'm in the process of moving money out of A+L for the reasons listed above (rubbish service, poor IRs), but I'm moving the money into another Santander savings account., but a major concern is that you can only move 10k a day and when I move the money, it's not actually appearing to move?? I can only presume it takes a few days as I moved £1 to make sure I'd put the bank details in correctly and the dates on the transfer are 3-5 days after I moved it??

    Anyway, the whole Santander thing does concern me, I posted a thread on the very same topic about 6 months ago.

    If Nationwide are so safe, why are they offering a savings account at 2.9%, do we think they're safe?

    I recently moved some money out of A&L in tranches. Appeared in my personal account 'virtually' the next day. Funds actually transferred on the 4th day (I think, might have been 3rd day). Never had any problems with A&L service myself.

  2. That would be the change to the regulations announced in April 2010 - precis below

    "From April, an amendment to the Town and Country Planning Act will create a new planning class for HMOs that will require landlords to apply for permission to change use to open a new letting property that is altered from a family home to a shared house for three tenants who are unrelated and share basic amenities.

    The change of use will affect landlords buying a home to let as an HMO and investors who already let a property under a single assured shorthold tenancy agreement who want to convert the property to a multiple let.

    Current legislation requires property owners to apply for planning permission when six or more unrelated tenants live in a property and share basic amenities, like a kitchen and bathrooms."

    The change in regulations that was done away with in September 2010 by Grant Shapps.

    So hardly surprising that you haven't seen a stampede for the exits.

    So, did the regs never take effect?

    Tories eh? The landlord's friend.

  3. What, the ones Grant Shapps got rid of?

    "Published 7 September 2010

    Housing Minister Grant Shapps ... laid new regulations that could cut as many as 8,500 planning applications from the system, freeing up councils to focus on local priorities. Currently landlords have to submit a planning application to rent their properties to unrelated tenants - known as Houses in Multiple Occupation. Regulations published today will ensure councils only have to use this power where they know high concentrations of shared homes are a problem."

    http://www.communiti...housing/1708224

    Getting old, can't remember what the regs were. I do remember the posts on here claiming that new regulations affecting houses in multiple occupancy were going to (apparently) cost landlords a fortune and cause a stampede for the exit.

    Hold on, what's that noise? ... Just having a look out of the window .... Bloody hell, there must be a thousand of the baastards - it's going to be carnage ... the one in front has led them into a cul-de-sac ... didn't realise the useless feckers could run like that ... bugger it, can't find the key to the gun cupboard ... never mind, they've broken through a back garden fence and ended up in the river.

    Not every day you see a stampede of scum landlords. I wouldn't have missed it for the world.

  4. Will be the last straw for some landlords, who will sell up, so, excellent.

    I thought the relatively recent new rules for multiple occupancy were supposed to be the last straw.

    And margin calls from lenders, weren't they to be the last straw.

    A few hundred quid spent on loft insulation will definitely be the last straw. Landlords will cause a stampede for the exit in their hurry to sell up, happily paying an estate agent a couple of grand rather than fork out a few hundred quid and happy to miss out on future rental returns and capital increases.

  5. That's exactly what I thought.

    He has equity in the house so in theory wont be trapped that way. In practise...will he take a loss...will he trap himself by not wanting to....but he will have to move for work so is effectively a forced seller.

    He's a nice chap so I wish him well but I think a lot of people who bought over the last 18 months will be slowly beginning to realise....a house is a home...not an investment !!!

    While i;m at it....I know a young lad who bought a house on this street 5 years ago:

    http://www.rightmove...y-25447015.html

    "19 October 2010

    * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Under offer' [Found by n/a]

    13 October 2010

    * Price changed: from '£104,950' to '£99,950' [Found by n/a]

    * Status changed: from 'Under offer' to 'Available' [Found by n/a]

    19 September 2010

    * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Under offer' [Found by n/a]

    25 August 2010

    * Price changed: from '£114,950' to '£104,950' [Found by n/a]

    29 May 2010

    * Price changed: from '£119,950' to '£114,950' [Found by n/a]

    02 April 2010

    * Initial entry found. [Found by n/a] "

    Take 5-10% off that and someone might have bought it for 95K...or less. The lad in question paid £105K....That's in 2005/6 !!!! I thought then it was an awful lot of money...I still do.

    If he'd reneted he'd have been no worse off.

    Yes, as I keep saying to anyone who will listen - house prices in many parts of the country have been effectively static for (in my area) 7 to 10 years now.

    The problem with this is ... that so much money, and so many people, are heavily invested in the market. Not like the boom/crash in the late 80s/early 90s which took a few years to inflate (and never reached many parts of the country) and two years to deflate.

    A house price crash now will take the banking system with it.

    The last house price crash could be coped with because, by comparison, there was little money and few people fully invested. Negative equity stalked the land, but it only affected a relatively small number of people.

  6. Speaking to a friend of mine who bought a house 18 months ago ( at the low point of the housing market ), convinced it was time to buy and that prices would start going up 10% yoy again.

    Your mate must be a right half-wit if he thought prices were going to start going up 10% a year at a time like this. Are you SURE that's what he thought - or is it what you think he thought? Maybe, like the vast majority of people, he just wanted somewhere to live and didn't fancy paying a landlord's mortgage for him - the NUTTER!

    Can't be too smug about it but how many more are in this boat ? How many have bought 12+ months ago thinking they were gonna make an (pretty much) instant 20% ?

    3? 5? 9? Who knows? Not many I'd say. Not many people thick enough to think that houses were going to go up by an instant 20%. Let's face it, when they did go up again after the banking crisis was 'fixed', all the property pundits and financial gurus said it was 'unexpected'.

    Your friend has been unlucky. He has to move because of a change of circumstances just 18 months after buying. Most people would lose money in this situation, most of the time - due to the costs of buying, selling and the fact that little or no capital is repaid in the early years of a mortgage.

    If he doesn't want to take the loss, maybe he'll do what lots of people seem to be doing - rent the fecker out and rent where he needs to work until the market picks up and he can get out ahead of the game. He may well have a long wait though.

  7. I doubt the rent you pay even now, twenty years later, is more than the interest payments were on his original mortgage. He would have made at least twcie as much money by renting out properies at the lower end of the market.

    I bet he's really kicking himself. The scumbag.

    Statements like these are what leads peope to think you're a VI. You sound like a crazed ramper. But I'm happy to take your word that you're not.

    But statements like that are just facts. Pure and simple. People do buy property with low yields. They do hold on for a long time and they do make money. Always have and, I daresay, always will. Throughout the ages wealth has always been invested in property - because it is the best way to hang on to your money and preserve it for future generations.

  8. It is not. Check volumes.

    Regarding prices: Halifax, Nationwide, Land Registry, etc. ALL indexes are down now, all of them. And the curves are pointing to an even faster fall. the charts are obvious. All of them.

    I think what is confusing people is that you, despite realising that "high house prices poison everything" (best sig. in this forum BTW), you are deliberately blinding yourself from the good news! God only knows why! (Or a [very] good counsellor perhaps?)

    Re. FTBs v BTLers.

    In a rising market BTLers use/have used their windfall equity as deposits, in a snow ball way. No longer.

    Expectations of capital growth were a huge motivation to buy. No longer.

    Expectations of capital losses will be a huge motivation to sell next.

    FTBers: Yes average salaries will be flat for a few years, and unemployment will go up, say to a worst case scenario of 10%. But that means that 90% of economically active people will still be employed. These will be in a better position to buy than BTLers with falling (or even negative) equity. Besides, FTBers motivation to buy is to have a home. In a couple of years, after real prices fall, say, some 20% from here, they will care less about possible further small losses of equity. they will have a home. BTLers won't get back in yet.

    I can't post a link to this ... it's from another forum. Dare say one could find it easily enough.

    "Recent figures from whitehot property, one of the UK's leading sellers of chain free property, reveal that 80% of properties advertised on their site are being bought by investors.

    Current market conditions mean that more and more investors are looking for affordable property in areas where there is increased rental demand. House prices in the north of the UK have decreased. However, it is these northern areas that are seeing both the demand and supply of rental homes increase due to current market conditions, creating an ideal platform for investors.

    Mike Pudney, whitehot business development manager, commented:

    "We are seeing lower property prices in the northern parts of the country, although the rental sector and the yield available in those areas remain robust, making it an ideal investment opportunity. Whilst the prices are lower, properties may need more initial outlay for maintenance, but the rental yield far outweighs the costs. Several investors are enjoying above average returns on their rental property, which in this market is no small feat. Based on our evidence, investors are switched on to grabbing the opportunities that this creates."

    I'm not arguing about volumes - they are low - but the current situation is that many sales are to investors. Which makes my point - that the market structure is gradually changing towards lower owner numbers (with more people owning multiple properties) - valid (I think so anyway).

    And I'm not deliberately blinding myself from the good news. I'm totally p!issed off with the way things are going. But we've been having episodes of good news since 2003 and they have all turned out to be false dawns. I'd say you're deliberately blinding yourself from the bad news. If a market can stagger on with much reduced mortgage availability, with much higher deposit requirements, with very low volumes - and still not see significant drops then I'd say the writing is on the wall. While people keep paying high rents, this market is not going to fall. It grieves me to say that. I am not happy about it. But I can't keep kidding myself that, at last, it's going to crash.

    If it does, GREAT!

  9. a quote here, somewhat aptly from the leading case on tenancy law

    ".. a five pronged instrument results in a fork even if the manufacturer, unfamiliar with the English language, insists that he intended to make and has made a spade"

    Ohh, I'm a VI without realising it. Thanks for helping me out with that. And all these years I've been arguing the case for a property crash and the desirability of a property crash. My only problem is I can't see one happening any more. I used to - but I can't keep the illusion up any more.

  10. There's no profit for landlords in nice houses.

    Possibly the most daft comment I've ever read on here.

    I live in a nice house. The landlord has made a lot of profit on it. Bought over 20 years ago the mortgage is paid off, the rent is significant and the capital gain enormous.

    I guess it's why most people, faced with 2% from a bank account will be happy with a 3% yield at the moment. They know that in 20 years time the yield will be 20% and the capital at least doubled. It's how people get rich from property.

  11. everybody say their HPC prayer before bedtime...

    Our savings who art in bank,

    hallowed be thy name.

    Thy kingdom come.

    Thy will be done

    in England as it is in Ireland and Spain.

    Give us this day our daily bear food,

    and forgive us our trespasses,

    as we forgive those bulls who trespass against us

    and lead us not into estate agents,

    but deliver us from evil.

    ...

    Hmmm, people are beginning to talk about bond holders having to take a bath. How long before dirty savers get asked to help out - those with the broadest shoulders etc.

  12. http://www.mortgager...use-price-cras/

    Market insiders are no longer asking themselves whether there will be a house price crash but instead how deep the crash will be. September alone slashed house prices down £6,000.

    Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics, said: "The fact that house prices now appear to be on their way back down after the past year's rather unexpected surge should not be a surprise. Not only is the market overvalued on most measures, but house price falls are entirely consistent with the drop in buyer inquires and mortgage approvals that we have seen in recent months. They also square with reports that lenders have begun to tighten credit standards again."

    PS. Don't know where they live - it's been crashing in these parts for a good couple of years now :D

    Remind me, how long has Ed been making that prediction. 7 years? More? He is definitely in the 'a stopped clock is right twice a day' category.

    As for the crash in your area - are you in the same area as The Masked Tulip by any chance? He was posting just a couple of weeks ago that he despaired of prices ever falling in his area of Wales and posted houses in West Wales (I think) at similar prices to the Home Counties.

  13. Cöck post of the month.

    What do you think will happen if all the skilled and qualified young people without money are excluded from the UK property market?

    They will leave and the economy will go down the bog.

    Anyone who sees reverting to the pre-War scenario of most property being in the hands of landlords as a good thing is an idiot.

    Politicians who stood by and allowed this to happen would end up dangling from lamp-posts and rightly so.

    You tell me why the market is still functioning then - at prices that are not far below the peak. Come on, you're clearly very smart. Explain why the market hasn't crashed over the last two years when FTBs are like rocking horse sh!t.

    Strikes me that any half wit can see that skilled and qualified young people without money are excluded from the UK property market. And that, instead of leaving, they RENT! Haven't you noticed? Average age of FTB was 34 - must be higher now.

    And who said that reverting to a pre-war scenario of most property being in the hands of landlords was a good thing? Well? Was it me? You ought to read my signature. The bit about a pox on BTL scum landlords.

    The difference between you and me is that you have a fixed idea of what you want and what you think is going to happen - and you don't have the wit to look at the world around you and try to see what is actually happening.

    Young people are renting. More and more of them, for longer and longer. The structure of property ownership is changing. Up to you if you want to deny the facts. Maybe you should open your eyes and try to work out what is actually happening.

    As for politicians dangling from lamp posts - I bet your local MP has no idea how you feel about what has happened to young people over the last 15 years. Ever been to his surgery? Ever emailed him? No, thought not ... you're just going to turn up with the lasso one day eh?

  14. so why did the market crash in 1990 to 1995 ????????????

    The market crashed, to the day, from August 1st 1988 when Miras joint tax relief (flagged up by Nigel Lawson 6 months in advance (the idiot)) was removed.

    The crash lasted about 2 years and then dragged along the bottom for another 6 years or so.

    It really is futile to try to compare that crash with the situation now.

    BTL is now an industry - then it was unusual.

    FTBs were needed then for almost every transaction. Now there seem to be loads of people awash with cash who can keep the market functioning.

    Then interest rates were in double figures - now you can borrow money (if you can borrow money) very cheaply.

    The boom that preceded the 1998 bust happened very quickly - so a relatively small amount of money was lent into the housing market and a relatively small number of people had bought at top prices.

    Now, prices have been very high (in my area) for 10 years and so much money has been lent into the property market that a significant crash will take our banking system with it. Governments have demonstrated that nothing is off limits when it comes to preventing this and having seen things I never thought I would see (QE and rescue schemes for 'troubled assets' I am prepared to take them at their word.

    The proof of this is that, rather than have a housing market with a high number of transactions with lower prices, what has evolved is a very low transaction, high price market.

    The thing is - I don't want any of this - I can't labour under this delusion that the housing market is going to crash any more. If it does the banking system goes with it.

  15. To whoever said that the market can survive without FTB's because landlords will buy the stock. You ought to investigate exactly how they are going to fund that? They aren't sitting on giant pools of cash waiting to invest in housing. Certainly not to the extent to make a dent in the required FTB market. And banks are not lending the money to sufficient levels either. FTB's are massively important and whilst the market can put up with a year or two's drought, it cannot last a great deal longer than that. People have families and want to trade up. Old people in smaller houses do die. All off this, especially over a two year span, leads to excess FTB stock that no way in hell can be absorbed by investors / landlords alone.

    Landlords are in a far better position than FTBs to buy the stock. But, from what I see are generally bypassing flats and buying houses.

    Estate agents locally tell me the FTB market is absolutely dead - they can't shift 200k flats for love nor money - but 4 bed detached houses sell relatively easily. You tell me how the FTBs are being missed out.

    So people who want to trade up can't. So what? Maybe they'll be stuck for 5 years. The market doesn't care. Some of them can trade up and do.

    The market is functioning on transactions just a third of the bad old days. But it is functioning. Many here would have argued that a market with such low transactions would have seen a price collapse. But that hasn't happened. Because all the things you describe (executor's sales, people having to move etc.) are insignificant.

    Also missing fundamentals. People die and their houses are therefore sold. I have friends who have sold well below market expectations simply because they wanted the cash inheritance quickly and it wasn't a loss to them now was it. What happens when a house like that sells significantly less in the street? House prices stay the same I suppose? No they don't, the street is pushed down. People do their homework and see it.

    If we're talking anecdotals - I made an offer on an executor's sale about 2 months ago. Offered 15k below an asking of £450k - because it had potential. They argued the toss, initally said no, wanted an extra 5k - we said 'no, that's quite enough money for a place that needs renovating'. They then started trying to negotiate fixtures and fittings, tools they were going to leave in the shed and similar nonsense. At which point we withdrew. Place went back on the market and sold again within a couple of weeks. The new houseowners, two sisters, clearly weren't desperate to sell and would hang out for the price they thought they somehow deserved.

    People also sell at a lower price than they thin their home is worth, when they are required to sell because of a change in family life. Birth of a child, divorce or retirement are all triggers. And for many the price drop is relative and not a real loss, as they bought a while ago, so it is only a virtual loss and their next purchase has also decreased. There's a delay because of stubborness but they do and will continue to shift.

    Yep and a lot of people in that situation rent out their house and rent one where then need to move. Which means their house doesn't help to create a market price and they help to keep prices high by renting someone else's house.

    You tell me - we've had over two years now of FTBs virtually out of the market, transaction levels slashed - yet prices have barely dropped. Why is that? Using your logic prices should already have gone down a lot.

  16. On my drive to work this morning I saw a new dog walker, I assume therefore that everyone is now buying dogs :rolleyes:

    Yes, but if you read on a dog forum that no-one is buying dogs, that the price of dogs is about to crash, that you can't sell a dog for love nor money, that the pace of decline in dog prices is accelerating every day ... and you noticed that, for example, half a dozen people in your local area had, in fact, managed to sell their dogs - you might be forgiven for thinking that the people on the dog forum making dogmatic statements could well be wrong.

  17. Housing is almost impossible to buy for FTB's, if they are frozen out of the market at current price levels something has to give eventually.

    Unfortunately, that is just not the case. The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

    What is happening is a gradual shift in property ownership. More people own multiple properties and for every person that owns 10 properties, 9 people have to rent.

    We're seeing a sttructural shift in property ownership. That is all. At any point where the yield on a property makes it worth buying (in the eyes of someone who believes property is the only safe investment and only compares it with 2% on your money in the bank) the property will be bought at that point.

    Which is why in 10 years time most of the people on here will still be renting and a lot of portfolios will have been expanded.

    It is disgusting, but it is what is happening. Instead of everyone on here patting themselves on the back thinking that they have read the market so well and that they are going to hang around for a couple of years and buy a property at 40% below today's prices - I really wish the scales would fall from their eyes and they could see what is actually happening.

    In 20 years time instead of 70% of people being property owners, it will be 50%. Another 20 years and you may have to be the child of a BTL landlord to ever have a chance of owning property.

    As prices fall at the moment - it is investors that are still buying.

  18. We are going to see a return to bear market psychology - too many properties flooding the market, so to get a sale you have to cut the price to a bargain; but then everyone else does the same thing, so eventually your property no longer stands out as a bargain, then a new round of cutting ensues... ad infinitum. That is why the slide will accelerate down. Additional shocks - higher unemployment, interest rate rises - have the potential to again accelerate the slide. Conversely, lower interest rate or improving employment could see a reveral... nah.. can't see either of those happening.

    The UK housing market got a stay of execution in 2008/2009 when interest rates were slashed to 0.5%. There are no bunnies left in the hat now, unfortunately. Furthermore I also believe that this government is in no way as committed to protecting the previous administration's bubble. It's painfully obvious that house prices are overvalued and that a correction is required for the economic health of the country. The only question is how to do it in a politically sensitive way while hurting as few people as possible. But panic is impossible to control.

    And, meanwhile, back out in the ACTUAL housing market, a house on the market up the road from me, which has been on the market for about 3 months, which has had the price cut from £335k to £315k has just gone under offer. Yes, I know it's not SOLD yet - but it will be soon. And if it falls through it might go down another 10k - but it will sell. They all do eventually (or get taken off the market).

    Some of the comments I am reading on here now are going from the sublime to the ridiculous. In my life I have seen two marked and one minor house price corrections. House prices going down are amazingly sticky. People will only sell at a lower price than they think their property is worth if they are desperate. And we are nowhere near desperation yet.

    We are going to see a return to bear market psychology - too many properties flooding the market, so to get a sale you have to cut the price to a bargain; but then everyone else does the same thing, so eventually your property no longer stands out as a bargain, then a new round of cutting ensues... ad infinitum. That is why the slide will accelerate down.

    Pure bunkum. The slide will not accelerate down. It may well carry on down, but it will decelerate if history is any indicator.

    But panic is impossible to control.

    Panic! Oh come on! Panic in the housing market. Panic in a market where with the best will in the world it can take 3 to 6 months to sell something.

    How, exactly, would panic manifest itself? Would people try to sell their houses in the pub for cash? Please, somebody, anybody ... take my house off my hands ... I'm in a right state of panic, you can have it for any price you care to name.

    I've known plenty of desperation in falling markets. Change of agent. Praying. Price drop. Another agent. More praying. Worry that no-one will ever buy it. Plenty of worry. Take it off the market - even put it an auction. Never seen panic though.

    When you start seeing dutch auctions with no reserves - then you'll know there is panic about.

    And as prices drop the BTLetters will buy up the bargains locking more people out of the market and into high rents.

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