Yandros

Fair comment. Stagnation is indeed possible (just look at Japan). There's one factor I almost mentioned though, but the post was already turning into HPC War and peace - the influence of the prices of newbuilds. Referring back 1992, the thing that really sticks in my mind, was, a year or 2 after buing in a newbuild flat for £42K, seeing a huge sign on the entrance of the estate, put up by the original developers... "Come and see our new development at #######. Move in for £21,000!" Sure the BTL brigade might try and hang on in a stagnant market, but the professionals, namely housebuilders and estate agents need to maintain sales volume. Is anyone seriously trying to tell me that, in the last 6 years, when house prices have gone up my 150%+, that the construction costs of newbuilds have followed suit? NO WAY. The builders are in the same lucky position as the oil companies, and are quietly pocketing the profits from a rocketing commodity price. When the going gets tough due to low sales volumes, they just slash prices. Been there, done that, got T-shirt.

Didn't you know? This country doesn't need doctors, teachers, shopworkers etc. We can all just become property developers and sell houses to each other for ever and ever!!

Yeah, I did notice the 92 recession thanks. I got on with my life and new career, bought a flat, then saw it drop in value by 60%. So what would you have had me do to avoid financial ruin? Not buy at all and continue renting perhaps? Silly me, surely not, because that's what all these idiot bears are suggesting today isn't it?

I'm afraid the denial is all coming from the bulls. The market is finding ever more desperate ways of defying gravity, but I think we're starting to see all the endgames more clearly now. Here’s a sketchy potted history of the last 6 years or so of lunacy for starters: FTBs max possible mortgage unable to keep up with prices - lenders increase the multiples for FTBs. BTL kicks off in a big way FTB repayments starting to get horrendous - Lenders encourage interest only loans House prices increase some more BTL in full swing FTB max possible mortgage falling short again - Lenders turn a blind eye to dodgy self certs House prices increase some more FTBs now dwindling - Government encourages shared equity schemes House prices increase just that little bit more BTL no longer profitable, landlords treading water FTBs now desperate – lenders offer 45yr mortgages, and expect huge deposits FTBs tell lenders exactly where they can stick their mortgage offers So where do we go from here? House prices go up FTBs extinct BTL now making a loss Rents go up Wages go up Inflation goes up Interest rates go up BTL now making a loss again Rents go up Wages go up Inflation goes up Interest rates go up Chinese and Indian economies tap GB plc on the shoulder and say “remember us” Bull wakes up from dream in a cold sweat Or how about this scenario… House prices go up FTBs extinct BTL now making a loss Rents go up Wages can’t increase due to cheap foreign labour Consumer spending collapses as all income spent on rent Economy goes into recession HPC!!!! Or this one… House prices stay static IRs creep up very slowly BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable BTLs bail out HPC!!! Or how about…house prices achieve the mythical ‘soft landing’ IRs stay low Inflation stays low BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity BTLers run out of capital for further purchases (not that there’s any point since there’s now no money to be made by increasing the portfolio) FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy Bottom end of market collapses HPC!!! So please, all the bulls out there – what mythical scenario am I missing where you all live happily ever after?

Hang on, so let me get this straight... Jack Dromey is to be the fall guy because he DIDN'T know about the loans Blair get away with it, even though he DID It appears the Newlabour code of ethics says corruption is better than incompetence. So what Clarke is saying is "Jack Dromey should go because he didn't catch Tony Blair cooking the books". How low can these people sink? What's sad is that they'll probably get their way, in the same way that it was the BBC heads that rolled over WMDs.

As someone who was a homeowner in the last crash, I really wonder if the "it's different this time" mantra is true, but in a good way (for us ). Those of us sinking slowly into negative equity (I was that boiled frog) didn't really have any options open to us. I was able to meet my payments easily, but was trapped. Downward price pressure came from single repossessions, and huge reductions on the price of new builds. Today these BTL barons can surely only take so much pain. It'll only take a few rental voids, IR hikes and the whiff of price drops, and we could see whole portfolios being dumped. It's possible that things could actually pan out MUCH faster than the last crash, simply because BTL properties are an investment, rather than a home.

Boxster does have a certain campness, I've got to admit. I'm afraid you have a womans car though...MX5 demographics have always been female heavy. If you want a proper blokes roadster, you've got to get a Honda S2000. Ideally though, to banish any doubts over your heterosexual credentials, you need to make sure that your roof leaks, the heater doesn't work, and you spend 50% of your time on the back of an AA truck...so that would mean a Lotus Elise, VX220, or anything made by TVR My candidate for the campest car on the planet, and also the most pointless is... *drum roll* The Suzuki X90 http://www.off-road.com/suzuki/x90.htm Only 2 seats, lousy luggage space, useless as an off road, and as a road going car. The only excuse for owning one of these, is if you live in southern california, and daddy bought you one for your 18th birthday.

Heh, well my politically incorrent mid engine 2 seater is immune 202g/km! I knew there had to be an advantage to the MK2 MR2 being stuck with a 2000cc engine instead of a V6 I totally agree about the bull bars on 4x4s incidentally. Apparently popup headlights are now banned, due to pedestrian safety issues (despite the fact that car with them are so low that pedestrians tend to roll over the bonnet. However it's perfectly ok to have a 4x4 with a bonnet like a brick wall with a mass of ironmongery on it!

Actually most of the motor manufacturers are in trouble. There has been a massive amount of cost cutting over the last 5 years or so, and it's visible in everything from closures of many regional offices (centralising everything at head office), down to penny pinching in the canteen. When a company charges you per filling in your sarnie, and you pay extra for thick bread...worry! Ford and GM are the headline grabbers, but take a look a Fiat, VAG, DC, even the Japanese (though I think Toyota are still doing fairly well).

I was thinking about the bull/troll posters here recently, and I've come to similarly uncomplimentary conclusions as By-Tor. I hang out on a number of forums, and you get trolls everywhere. However, they do generally have some sort of vested interest in the forum topic, and change the record occasionally. Why are HPCs naysayers still here? If we're truly a load of misguided irrelevant idiots, why waste any time on us at all? Since most of them are deliberately aiming to annoy, I'm assuming it's not due to some altruistic desire to save us all from a lifetime of rent slavery. I'm left with only 2 logical possibilities: Troublemakers with FAR too much time on their hands Property VIs who are very frightened, or at least worried enough to keep stirring things up here

Actually, to be fair, things have been looking a bit grim lately. The fact that our neighbour has just sold in 2 weeks, at about 12% over last years asking prices for that house type, does not exactly fill me with confidence Add to this the steady stream of FTB lemmings amongst our work colleagues, and some depressingly insane Rightmove asking prices in our area :angry: BTW RichM, what contributions have Evangelical Christians made to Western civilisation? (serious question, though I appreciate off topic, and possibly asking for trouble!)

Sorry, still not convinced Wearing my company hat, if I was told that the cash from our eurozone clients was up say 25%, but at the expense of a 25% hike in costs of any imported materials, I'd say woohoo, bring it on!!! Our biggest expenses, BY FAR, are wages. Our expenditure per year on PCs, consumables etc is tiny by comparison. At the moment, the biggest pressure on wage demands is coming from insane house prices in the SE, so if the byproduct of a drop in sterling is a hike in IRs, causing a HPC, again..woohoo! Still waiting for the downside!

I'm not so sure. I work in the service sector, with the bulk of our clients in the euro zone. Can anyone tell me why a collapse of the pound wouldn't be a godsend for us?

Over on one of the digital photography forums, someone was sharply corrected after he asked if he should make an "investment" in new DSLR and lenses, rather than spend money on his house, kids etc. He got a lecture on the difference between wants and needs, then told to sort his priorities and call a spade a spade - ie new camera = expensive toy, NOT an investment! On a semi-related topic, I know people on good money, with no savings, no pension, no house, clapped out car, living with parents and paying negligible 'rent'. Their wages disappear every month on beer, music and junk .

heh, touché! One of the cases where renting does have some serious disadvantages over owning - try asking a landlord if it's ok to cut a 6ft slot in the ceiling for a motorised screen!

Idiot In the current climate anyone with an ounce of sense will try to drop it below the stamp duty band. Incidentally, our next door neighbour started off at about 265K early last year, then the last I heard went down to below 250K. According to the latest nethouseprices figures, it eventually sold for 230K.

I'm looking for a projector for the office, so I phoned up our usual supplier. They're a small firm who specialise in projectors and plasmas, for both business and home cinema fans. While he was waiting for some specs to come up, I did the usual small talk, and asked "how's business these days?" The gist of the answer was, not bad, all things considered, what with this and that and all the worries about a house price crash, not many people are wanting to spend money on home cinemas. I nearly fell off my chair . Has the MEW gravy train finally hit the buffers? It certainly looks like the HPC message is getting around. It does make me sad though, if people like him suffer because of a crash, because they're a great firm with low prices (if anyone happens to be after home cinema kit PM me for a link!)

I think you're being a bit mean actually. OK, so he's trekkie who's clearly gone of the deep end, BUT it's pretty obvious that he has some talent as well. It's a shame though that he's a one trick pony, obsessed with a show that has just been cancelled. At another time, with a broader range, and with more business sense, he might've made a fortune - how many 'themed' venues are there out there? Also. have you any idea how many home cinema fans have done this sort of thing, or more importantly, paid a small fortune for someone to do it for them? eg http://www.avone.net/AV1_home_theaterE.html

Homeowner here, for 15 years and we're also wanting to move up. Half a million for a 4 bed detached? I don't think so! I fared badly in the first crash, managed to get out of negative equity studio flat hell in 95, to get a 2 bed terrace. We then made a smart move and got a 3 bed detached for 120K in 1999. We now have about 170K equity, and a rapidly diminishing mortgage due to massive overpayments. The only dilemma is whether to bet on a HPC and jump off the sinking ship to STR. Do we gamble in an attempt to win big, if we see a large crash, or do we sit tight and make a smaller relative 'win' by paying less for our next property? My temptation is to sit tight, since as soon as we STR, we might be tempted to make the classic blunder and jump back in too soon. As it is, we're comfortable, and can sit back and watch the fireworks, accepting paper losses as 'easy come, easy go'.

My girlfriend was speaking to a colleague at work today, who is considering getting into the BTL market. Fortunately though, she had enough sense to ask the advice of her aunt, who's an estate agent. Her advice: (paraphrased) The market is going to be awash with 1 & 2 bed flats, mainly due to the SIPPS U-turn, so don't buy for at least 6 months, by which time the prices should've dropped considerably. Since this isn't the usual 'telling the punter what they want to hear' EA tactic, I think this comment has some value.

Perhaps that pair should become a registered charity, refurbishing houses for poor deserving BTLers Everyone has been predicting the death ofthis sort of program, but this is wonderful TV. There's nothing the great British public likes more than watching idiots come a cropper. Shadefreude, don't you just love it!

Woohoo - closing comment "The housing market in Liverpool has crashed" Bah, beaten to the scoop!

I had about 30K negative equity on a 44K flat in the last crash. I can assure you that the building society does not just sit there and do nothing - they start sending you threatening letters letters suggesting payment plans for you to clear the negative equity. Think about it, if you default on the loan (very likely in that sort of climate), and they repo your house and you do a runner, they're massively out of pocket. It's in their interest to correct this situation as fast as possible to minimise their risk. It all gets very messy basically.

I part-exchanged a house 7 years ago in what sounds like an identical sort of arrangement. I got a lowish offer from the builders, but we were in a hurry to move, since their development was selling fast. I think it's rather common, and completely above board. In our case the builders sold our house within days, and the buyer moved in as we vacated.

Buyers of huge plasmas – usually a classic example of more money than sense. Like most ‘proper’ home cinema fans, I beat them in the inches game, and wouldn’t dream of buying from Dixons. I’m smugly sitting in front of a 92” motorised screen, with a ceiling mounted projector, and a ground shaking sound system to match…at half the cost of that ridiculous plasma TV. The difference – I had to do the legwork. I had to find the right projector for the room, find a decent priced bespoke screen and work out throw ranges and viewing angles. I had to find a guy to install stuff for sensible money. I found someone who makes long distance high quality component video cable at virtually cost price, and a supplier of custom projector mounts. The list goes on and on. It took weeks!! I didn’t just walk into Dixons and on a whim slap 8K on my credit card.